white belt wrote: ↑
Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:54 am
Does that calculus change when everyone in your circle is vaccinated?
Definitely a consideration. Also general community numbers. Because some of my loved ones are high risk, I am going to err conservative in my approach. There's no un-ringing the bell - death of a loved one (or worse, long covid followed by suicide).
I do recognize the bias of privilege. I'm a heavy introvert and already established in life. Same for most of my circle. Our price for caution is low. Dating isn't a consideration. Or even networking. Everyone in our circle has a home with yard. There are dozens of parks and trails. It's easy to be careful.
I do believe we are dealing with an endemic virus. It has and will continue to mutate. Community numbers are a lagging indicator of new problems. Tragic mutations are going to appear in hindsight, after deaths spike. I expect to need a booster in the fall and annual vaccinations moving forward. I think leaders have to de-emphasize this risk, to keep hope alive, and mitigate the disaster of people giving up entirely.
A permanent shift in behaviors to mitigate contagious disease is warranted. Jacob predicted this early on. It's going to be an individual thing, like healthy eating. There will be some broad societal protections, but wide variance between demographics and regions. We're already seeing it. I think they might take another year or two to converge.
I don't need a study to decide joining an indoor spin class is a bad idea. I've been in gyms long enough to know - if the community has a 5% positive rate, some exercise addict will insist on riding while symptomatic. They might even cool their forehead to pass a temperature screen. People are like that. It's hardcore. I don't need to test my vaccination in that environment.
Now at 5% positive, can I do some lifts, then use the rowing machine at 1pm on a Tuesday? Or 7pm on a Sunday? Probably. A hatha yoga class, at a less popular time slot, where I bring my own props? Perhaps. I'd skip the mat to mat hot vinyasa though. The trade off - of course - is that removing risk removes social benefits. At a certain point, maybe it's better to use the rack in my basement and go for a walk.
As much as the true risk is important, it will also depend heavily on the perceptions of my loved ones. If they aren't comfortable, even if I disagree, I won't do it. I can take a kettlebell to the park.