Investments Trade Log

[C40]

This is crazy. I've read that buying is still allowed on the more traditional brokers. I used some scraps of cash sitting in my accounts to buy 2 shares $145, on what I sure hope was the dip. I would hate to day trade. This is a stressful ride even with a tiny fraction of my NW

[C40]

It is kind of hilarious that one of the attempts to cancel WSB was to write "[WSB are..] reddit bros.. some of which are alt-right"

They could have posted the ways that WSB members do actually describe themselves: retarded, autistic cuckolds who can barely read and work at Wendys

[white belt]

@C40

Another one I saw is a CNN piece attempting to draw direct connections between Trumpism and the WSB crowd.

[white belt]

Dave Portnoy's little speech embedded in this article will one day be in wikipedia as an example of Irrational Exuberance/Stock Market Euphoria. And he probably believes what he's saying!

Yes and no. Certainly one can point to the current things happening and see all the tell-tale signs of a speculative bubble (let's just focus on the larger stock market bubbles rather than the WSB stuff happening right now). Someone like Dave Portnoy has been talking about how "Stocks can only go up" since the start of COVID lockdowns in the USA. Certainly a ridiculous statement on the surface, and yet the index investing evangelists have been saying the same thing (over the long term) since Jack Bogle made indexing popular. But let's move past that, what if I add a second part to that previous statement that goes something this: "Stocks can only go up [as long as the Fed and US Gov't keeps propping up markets with ZIRP and bailouts during any downturn]." Now all of a sudden that statement seems much more plausible. So the question becomes will the Fed/US Gov't let a downturn occur? Will they let rates rise or will they introduce yield-curve control?

It's a bit dangerous to compare the current situation to previous bubbles since we've never seen debt or government intervention occurring on this level (at least in the USA). This party could go on for much longer than the bears think. And I haven't even talked about the flows from active managers to passive that floods the market with more cash, which Mike Green has written much about. Of course this WSB situation exemplifies an opposite trend that some people have been gambling actively rather than putting money in passive.

Edit: We've seen steps to stop the WSB crowd, but what happens if institutional money starts flowing into the same WSB trends? I'm sure there are a lot of analysts and fund managers watching everything unfold closely and trying to figure out how to profit from it.

[C40]

If I understand right, this is not merely a bubble. It's a million plus people that have hedge funds (and their brokers/banks/insurance/US Government) held hostage for whatever amount they decide to demand with sell limit orders.

Some of these GME holders are 25 year olds who have memories of 2008 when their parents lost their jobs, lost the house, and they slept on the floor at grandmas house and for dinner sometimes ate tomato soup made from packets of ketchup snuck out of McDonalds... this is a huge moment in their lives and they are out for vengeance as much as money

[white belt]

@C40

Gotcha. I agree with your sentiment about the GME holders, especially since most of them come from my generation. That's what I was getting at in my earlier post that these people aren't going to go down easy. This is a protest like marching down to Wall Street and burning down hedge fund buildings (and looting their bank vaults), just the digital 2021 version. We'll see how this proceeds and if it escalates into physical violence. The left-wing media outlets like Vice are just starting to seize on the story as a David and Goliath (rich vs poor, old vs young, Wall St vs Main St, gov't vs people) story.

Edit: We now have both AOC and Ted Cruz tweeting in agreement that Robinhood restrictions are "unacceptable"

[Mister Imperceptible]

The dictatorship will not allow it if it threatens the system. Hedge funds were being forced to liquidate their longs as shorts blew up. The broader stock market was falling as these shorted stocks were rising. Now that flow is reversing.

[white belt]

The populist uprising is swelling and I'm unsure if even the ruling class will be able to keep it contained, but they are certainly trying. Are more people going to start viewing WSB as a "cause" and pouring money into it's prized stocks to feel like they are doing the "right thing" to fight Wall St? We already see politicians and celebrities coming out with their opinions in favor of WSB. The first wave of WSB followers seemed to be mostly motivated by greed, but as the elites have attempted to fight back we're seeing a much larger battle play out. So far this uprising crosses political lines even in the most polarized of times.

[Mister Imperceptible]

I think it is important to understand the psychology of millions of people, even if you do not agree with the sentiment. A lot of these people on WSB do not even expect to make money. I certainly do not want to lose my savings, and I am not in this trade directly (tho in a way we are all either long or short volatility, and I suspect the mainstream that will be quick to dismiss this phenomenon are short volatility and so are ignoring the underlying reasons at their own risk):

Radigan Carter: The Wall Street Insurgency

“Boomers Don’t Understand The Game They Are Now Playing”
......
This is what the start of an insurgency looks like. Ask anyone who has been overseas and seen what a society looks like as it starts to fracture.
......
But here is the problem. It is not WallStreetBets that does not understand the game they are playing, it is you, Boomers and specifically the 1%.
......
But here’s the secret about insurgents. They already think they are dead. They think everyone around them is already dead. Why do they think this?
......
This is the mindset that develops when you watch your brother drown in a shit filled ditch trying to fish discarded plastic water bottles out of it to sell, where your animals have nothing to eat but discarded trash, you burn tires in the winter to stay warm, you cannot get a job, which means you cannot get married.

This is the same mindset that develops when you watch your parents be denied a PPP loan while all the hedge funds got theirs then politicians wiped away the loans and poof, a free $100 billion changed hands again, as if by magic, from their wallets to yours.
......
If the Boomers in charge wanted to actually fix the problem, they would have done so in 2008 or even in March 2020 and let poorly run companies go bankrupt instead of providing liquidity while providing a social safety net to the lower working class which have been taking it on the chin for decades to maintain social stability during the transition, but they didn’t, so I doubt they will choose to do so now.

They are now facing an organized, smart, dedicated, and younger financial insurgency who is both technological superior with a higher risk tolerance since they have nothing to lose.
......
In other words those with the most to lose will lose. Will a lot of the millennials lose in the process as well? Yes, but they no longer care. The standard rules and thinking of risk in the first world are becoming not applicable.

They could have lead that in 2008, or even in March 2020, both times they proved they are weak, with no honor, and not worthy of our respect. Instead they chose to steal decades from their children and their grandchildren to continue to live beyond their means.

[C40]

Well..I am thoroughly confused about what actually happened today

[white belt]

@Jacob/others

Can we decide which thread to put the GME/WSB discussions in? Since it has it's own thread title now, I propose moving it there so folks don't need to sift across 3 different threads to discuss.

[C40]

ah yeah, I think we should discuss it in the Gamestop thread now that it exists

[jacob]

Yes, lets move further GME et al posts to viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11827

The investment log thread is intended to serve as an overall historic trail/reference w/o too much detail/discussion.

I'll lock this thread for a few hours (unless something unrelated happens) to make that happen.

[The Old Man]

https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/fe ... rate-hike/

Don't fight the Fed.

Looks like a super easy monetary policy will be with us for some time to come. Bubble economics are here to stay. The Fed will eventually want to unwind its positions, but at the same time it also doesn't want to disturb the markets - both the real economy and financial markets.

[Lemur]

Nokia up 8% pre-market due to earnings report from competitor showing increased earnings in the 5G sector excluding China.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nokia ... eid=yhoof2

Nokia reports earnings February 4. I'm expecting positive news.

Motley Fool suggests that MAC short-squeeze is ending.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/ ... gn=article

MAC reports earnings February 11. I'm not sure what to expect. I'm hoping the value play narrative picks up over the short squeeze narrative at this point after MAC caught much attention last week.

I rolled down my covered calls on both NOK and MAC today after their share prices dropped.

[Biscuits and Gravy]

Took my surprising GME gain and bought ATVI, because if I were a gamer (as many of the redditors seem to be) and new to the markets with sudden easy cash in my brand new trading account, I'd buy ATVI.

[giskard]

Yesterday silver popped about 7% to 10% and today it's down about 8%. Some of the smaller miners moved 20%+. I think is what they call a "prairie dog".

I was wheeling on silver & gold miners all year so I used the opportunity to sell calls on some of the miner shares I had been assigned: I sold calls on AG (exquisitely tasty premium), PAAS, HL and I actually sold $5 puts on HL as well at to open to capture the vol.

I didn't sell calls against everything I had because I was hoping the rally might go a little further, but maybe not. Looks like it was a fake-out.

[Lemur]

Updates:

MAC - Released preliminary results for its earnings - perhaps just trying to soften the blow? In any case, looks like I'm bag-holding this one for a while as I'm down big. My thesis of jumping in the short-squeeze mania was wrong and I simply bought too high. So far able to reduce my cost-basis from $20.22 to $17.45. I have a covered call for $18 February 19. Stock currently trading at $12.70.

NOK - I'm slightly down. Reduced my cost-basis from $5.44 to $4.69. I have $6 covered calls expiring end of this week. Stock is trading at $4.47.

Glad I've CC's. So far have saved myself $11k in premiums.

[jacob]

Oi!

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/ne ... 1612277883

[Lucky C]

I had sold half my SLV at the big open Monday. Now that it's back down and appears to be acting more normally to me, I bought back in. Doesn't look like anything is wrong with the intermediate-long term trend. If it rises again past the Monday highs, even better.