COVID topic vol 2

[jacob]

It's fascinating(?!) to watch the evolutionary response the virus has taken towards humanity's socially uncoordinated "half'n'half" response. The increased virulence resulting from adaptive fitness (from the perspective of the virus) means increased lethality for the maskless and increased "lockdown"-behavior from the rest---if the target population decreases by half from human distancing, you, the virus, gotta increase your "reach" by 2x.

Add the vaccinated population as a third group, who may not have the same resistance towards the evolved strains and it makes for a very complicated competitive dynamics going forward.

OTOH, humanity's lack of capability for a coordinated response also makes it easier to predict the outcome of future outbreaks of zoonotic diseases, so there's that.

[J_]

@Jacob
It is also fascinating to ask what people have done to improve their very own immune system during the last 12 months? A kind of personal response.

For example:
Reduce bmi to „healthy level”,
Study about how the human immune system works and how it can become optimal
Study about food and how food can improve your health
Apply what you have found on those studies
How to keep enough vitamine D levels in your body, especially in wintertime when the normal way-sunlight via your skin- is not well possible

Add what I forgot to mention:

[Ego]

Ahem.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55784199

Covid: Vaccinated people may spread virus, says Van-Tam

Even after you have had both doses of the vaccine you may still give Covid-19 to someone else and the chains of transmission will then continue," Prof Van-Tam said.

"If you change your behaviour you could still be spreading the virus, keeping the number of cases high and putting others at risk who also need their vaccine but are further down the queue."

The vaccines are roughly 95% effective and the duration of protection is unknown. So 5% will be permanently vulnerable.

It is logical to assume that the conditions that make the vaccines ineffective for this 5% are also conditions that allow people to die from Covid.

Thus we have the ultimate vicious cycle.

1. Vaccines do not work for the most vulnerable so we must remain in lockdown.

2. The lockdowns create more people with the metabolic syndrome that makes them vulnerable, and is likely to make the vaccines ineffective for them. (Goto 1)

.

[jennypenny]

Sorry if this was posted upthread and I missed it, just catching up on this thread ... NatGeo: COVID-19 will likely be with us forever. Here's how we'll live with it.

I'm trying to think through how things might look going forward (2-5 years and possibly longer) if COVID is a permanent part of the landscape. Most people can't afford to stay holed up. Work will have to get done (ie we currently need plumbing work done). Kids will need to go to school. People will need to date/socialize. How will that work? I'm having trouble picturing how this will play out* (not necessarily in political ways but practical ways). We can't continue with the 'great pause' indefinitely. Even if some of us are prepared to, I don't think it's healthy.

@jacob -- if this shouldn't be in this thread, lmk and I'll start a new one


*partly my fault since FIL died xmas day ( tested positive 12/15) and my dog died two weeks later, so I'm struggling to get back up to speed

[7Wannabe5]

1) The 5% for whom the vaccine was not effective still experienced milder version of the virus.

2) Even if it could be proven that lockdown is increasing metabolic disorders for majority of population, as I noted up thread, even extreme obesity is less of a risk than being male rather than female, and age is much more of a correlated risk factor than gender. Therefore, the most vulnerable demographic is older men and being locked down does not change your age or your sex.

3) The chart posted a bit further up thread about economic fall out from lockdown is also misleading. It visualizes the difference between the “shares” rather than the shares, and it limits the Y axis to the range of results rather than possible results. It also implies difference between these demographic groups is due to lockdown, rather than the fact of Covid, or even perennial differences that might have still been seen with such a survey offered prior or post epidemic. IOW, it is the sort of visual representation appropriate for sales rather than science.

3) I understand people wanting to get out of lockdown for all sorts of economic and personal reasons, but this desire does not IMO justify the promotion of bad math.

[IlliniDave]

...
*partly my fault since FIL died xmas day and my dog died two weeks later, so I'm struggling to get back up to speed

Very sorry to hear about your FIL's passing, jp.

I'm trying to gauge a optimum window to migrate northward sometime during calendar spring or early/mid summer. My dad and others are signed up for vaccines, but the wait is indefinite and could be long. It'll be a while before I can even sign up. That doesn't answer your question though. If it really is going to be a permanent thing that vaccines/therapeutics can't keep in check we'll probably have to go the Florida route and reopen and people will have to decide on an individual basis what their risk tolerance is.

[jennypenny]

@iDave--Thanks. He only suffered 10 days (I changed what I wrote above so people know how fast it can play out) but no one was allowed to see him during that time and he died alone. The funeral was also a nightmare to arrange and was a mix of people being careful and people who got mad if you didn't hug them because they think funerals trump covid.

I'm thinking that when we get vaccinated, if the effects aren't permanent, it's best to schedule any moving, appointments, interactions and the like right afterward during the height of effectiveness. As soon as I know when we'll get vaccinated, I'm going to schedule things like dentist appointments, the aforementioned plumbing work, and even haircuts. I'll do my stockpiling then as well. I'll still be as careful around other people as I am now, but I'll definitely take advantage of the immunity boost to do as much as possible.

[7Wannabe5]

@jp:

Sorry to hear about your FIL and your dog.

One thing to bear in mind about possible mutations over the long term is that it is not a Lamarckian process. The virus isn’t consciously striving for a means by which to find its next human to infect. The reproductive rate of the virus is staggeringly fast and the copying mechanism is less fail safe than DNA based “organism.” Therefore, the rate of semi-randomly generated successful mutation is correlated with number of humans actively infected NOT some factor like challenges to be overcome by virus. IOW, humans do not cause the virus to mutate by making spread more difficult, although this may seem to be the case if newly mutated strain has advantage over older strains in ability to spread under current conditions.

[Riggerjack]

It has been a year since this was posted, for perspective:

Riggerjack
Ooh! Disease, I forgot to bring up disease!

SeaTac is an international airport, with all the pandemic risk that implies...


https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... ed-states/

He's being treated about 2 miles from my workplace.

I'm not particularly worried about this virus, though China seems to be. Modern quarantines are odd to see. I'm interested in seeing whether it works.

chenda


@riggerjack - IIRC, you have a drawer full of pandemic preparations though?

Riggerjack
My zombie drawer? Yup. Pulled out the box of masks, last night. Still have bleach, gloves, etc.

But it's all still there. Like I said, I am not worried about this virus. The deaths are among the old or infirm.

By comparison, the 1919 swine flu was killing people in their prime.

All the crazies are out and about on this topic, it makes for some fun reading. I doubt it all as a general rule. But what I do believe is that masks are selling for $45 in the quarantine zone.

When Ebola hit Dallas, masks and gloves were hard to get in the PNW. Some things just disappear, there was no alcohol based hand sanitizer at Costco, last night, for instance.

... ...

[IlliniDave]

@iDave--Thanks. He only suffered 10 days (I changed what I wrote above so people know how fast it can play out) but no one was allowed to see him during that time and he died alone ... it's best to schedule any moving, appointments, interactions and the like right afterward during the height of effectiveness.

The dying alone part is difficult for our culture. I know of three instances where it was 72-96 hours from diagnosis to death (all over age 85).

The second part of the excerpt is sort of my plan, I have a list of things to get my house prepped for sale that I'll have to contract, plus all the showing and such. I intend to delay the showing until I am completely moved out, vaccinated or not. Not sure what to do about the contractors because I'd much rather get that taken care of over the next 2-3 months.

It's interesting to see states like Illinois and California starting to back off on some of the restrictions in the post-inauguration world. I worry about Illinois opening up too soon, although there are supposed to be a few positive indications in some parts of the state. California allegedly hiding some of their data from the public is concerning, but I have no plans on going there in the foreseeable future.

[J_]

I'm trying to think through how things might look going forward (2-5 years and possibly longer) if COVID is a permanent part of the landscape.

Wish you well jp

Things going forward here in Austria are hardly different with Covid...for me and DW. Although the hotels, restaurants and shops are closed until the end of Februari (exept food-shops). The cc. skiing and my outdoor walking trips go uninterrupted on. (For people with little children it is much harder, schools will reopen on Februari 8).
This morning there was a man on the door to do the yearly check on legionella in our appartment building. So things like legionella-checks and for example plumbing eg are still being done here, the men are wearing masks. The hospitals are not overloaded, the vaccinating has started quietly. I do not know how long it will take before I (I am foreigner here) will get one.

I do make plans for the next years to come, they are not very different from plans I have make in the past. Only travel will be different, I will avoid public transport as much as possible. So if I want to go, I will go by car or with my boat. And in comparison to your country the car travels will be over small distances with a maximum of 1000 kilometer per yourney, so that I can reach my destination in one (long) day.

Like you I have to undergo some dental work, that will start in two weeks. The dentist and his assistent will get the vaccin next week. I take the (little, I think) risk.

With this aproach I am able to avoid getting depressed or such. I just go on with my life, wear a mask in public spaces and enjoy the silence we have this winter in our village.

I hope you will also be able to make your own plans in such a way..

[chenda]

It has been a year since this was posted, for perspective:
... ...

Ha, I'm sure that draw came in handy.

@jennypenny - very sorry to hear your news.

I was walking around an old churchyard yesterday and saw four freshly dug graves. They usually have about one burial a year.

[Ego]

1) The 5% for whom the vaccine was not effective still experienced milder version of the virus.

The vaccine trials were not representative of the general population. For instance, here are some of the people excluded from the Pfizer vaccine trial.

Individuals with other medical or psychiatric condition including recent (within the past year) or active suicidal ideation/behavior or laboratory abnormality

Individuals with a history of severe adverse reaction associated with a vaccine and/or severe allergic reaction (eg, anaphylaxis) to any component of the study intervention(s).

Individuals at high risk for severe COVID-19, including those with any of the following risk factors:
-Hypertension
-Diabetes mellitus
-Chronic pulmonary disease
-Asthma
-Current vaping or smoking
-History of chronic smoking within the prior year
-BMI >30 kg/m2
-Anticipating the need for immunosuppressive treatment within the next 6 months

Individuals with a history of autoimmune disease or an active autoimmune disease requiring therapeutic intervention.

While they did include people up to 85 years old, they were not the obese, type-2 diabetic, hypertensive, COPD sufferers who are dying from covid.

Moreover, the immune response of very old people is not very good. So much so that they are given flu shots with four times the amount of antigen as everyone else. Yet even with the high-dose flu vaccine they account for almost all of the flu related deaths.

While the flu shot is not as effective as the covid shot, this highlights a problem with any vaccine. They rely on the immune system to mount a response and create T-lymphocytes and antibodies. The immune systems of unhealthy old people are just not very good at doing so.


And for some unknown reason we continue to ignore ivermectin. https://vimeo.com/503883728

[OTCW]

Had my second dose of the Moderna Vaccine last week. Mild to moderate side effects including headache and a lot of fatigue the next day and a slight fever overnight for a few hours.

Didn't sleep well at all. Went to work on time the next morning but only lasted until after lunch because the headache kept getting worse to the point that I couldn't ignore it and function. Cleared up that night though when I was able to rest. I avoided pain killers because some literature suggests the may decrease the efficacy of the vaccine by an unknown amount. No body aches or nausea.

For reference, for the first dose I had no side effects. Others I know had no side effects for either shot or similar side effects as myself for the second shot. Not sure I know anybody who reacted badly to shot 1.

[OTCW]

As far as the vaccinated still being able to spread the virus, I have my doubts. I feel like that is the party line to get people to continue wearing masks, being socially distant, etc. If the vaccinated people stop, then other people will stop. Just human nature, and that has to be discouraged.

Assuming best case is vaccinated people are not able to spread, a 95% rate protects even the 5% as the virus has too many vaccinated firewalls to be able to find new vulnerable hosts. This is assuming everyone will take the vaccine.

Which they won't for various reasons, some good, some silly or misinformed, and some because it won't ever be available to them. So 5% of whatever the eventual number that gets vaccinated is hopefully enough as well to protect the 5% that it doesn't work for plus the 100% of the vaccinated. Time will tell.

[enigmaT120]

7WB5 wrote:

One thing to bear in mind about possible mutations over the long term is that it is not a Lamarckian process. The virus isn’t consciously striving for a means by which to find its next human to infect. The reproductive rate of the virus is staggeringly fast and the copying mechanism is less fail safe than DNA based “organism.” Therefore, the rate of semi-randomly generated successful mutation is correlated with number of humans actively infected NOT some factor like challenges to be overcome by virus. IOW, humans do not cause the virus to mutate by making spread more difficult, although this may seem to be the case if newly mutated strain has advantage over older strains in ability to spread under current conditions.

The most recent person with whom I fell in love diagnosed (if that's the correct term) me as sapiosexual.

But sure, just keep writing things like that.

[subgard]

The Moderna vaccine produced sterilizing immunity in mice.
And there has been evidence that the various vaccines reduce viral shedding in humans, if not downright eliminate it.
So, a vaccinated population would have an R value below the unvaccinated population, possibly by a substantial amount.

The Moderna vaccine also prevented 100% of severe Covid cases in the experimental group. Severe cases are the ones that clog up the healthcare system. As the primary reason for restrictions is to prevent healthcare system overwhelm, a vaccinated population, even one with many (milder) infections, would see restrictions lifted.

[Peanut]

Chiming in with OTWC and subgard, from what I've read it would be very unlikely if the vaccine did NOT significantly reduce the potential for further transmission, if not completely eliminate it. Similarly, a good guess of the efficacy of one dose of the vaccine appears to 80-90%, although the more widely promulgated figure is 50%. It seems very much to me like public health officials are once again playing games with the public.

DH got the Pfizer vaccine a couple weeks ago. Neither he nor his colleagues were technically eligible but there are loopholes everywhere in this poorly executed rollout I guess. He was reluctant but I urged him to go ahead and do it since the opportunity was available. Just a bit of soreness from the first shot.

[chenda]

I think by August things will be more or less back to normal, as long as the vaccine pace keeps accelerating. History will rightly see this as one of the greatest medical achievements in history.

There will be plenty silver linings as well; we'll be much better prepared to face future, potentially more dangerous pandemics. Car use may substantially fall. Smaller towns and cities will likely attract more investment. Issues of poor housing and social disparity in public health may be better addressed.

[cmonkey]

I've not seen this shared on here yet and people seem concerned about how long immunity lasts. The data is looking positive.

Eight months after infection, most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness, the new data show. A slow rate of decline in the short term suggests, happily, that these cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.

Also SARS classic immunity lasts at least 17 years...

Too much emphasis is placed on antibody protection. There are many other layers of protection that are critical to fighting off this virus.

I say this with big HOWEVER.....

SARS-CoV2 is going to turn into an endemic cold virus once everyone has either a) caught it and had a "first infection" or b) been vaccinated. For a hint of how it might go longer term, see here.

It's looking like you can still harbor (and spread) the virus in your nose/throat even after having been infected previously, however, it doesn't cause severe illness in this case. Likely because a person develops robust immunity which would keep the infection local to the nose/throat. Just like all the other human coronaviruses.

PHE also warned that although those with antibodies have some protection from becoming ill with COVID-19 themselves, early evidence from the next stage of the study suggests that some of these individuals carry high levels of virus and could continue to transmit the virus to others.

The jury is out on vaccinated people still spreading it, but I'll bet they do spread it.