I very much appreciate the input. I added the book to my queue. I do prefer dealing in strategies rather than specific values. I need to learn how to solve my problem, because it will change. A good example - my early numbers did not include my spouse and incorrectly estimated healthcare.
The calculator highlights death risk well. Given my time horizon, it is interesting to see how little impact social security has on success rates. The chosen actuarial table doesn't matter much either. Funny, we just killed two of my safety nets.
One interesting variance - if I say a 3% WR with 15% tax rate, I expect to spend 25,500. I think the calculator expects to spend 30,000 and is adding taxes on top. I know the 4% rule assumes 0 taxes.
My resistance at accepting a 3% WR:
1. I do not trust past results as a predictor of future performance. Declining empires, food inflation, healthcare inflation, CAPE, etc.
2. I do not understand logistics accessing money and monitoring portfolio health
I think education and a monitoring strategy will solve these.
This does highlight a big source of fear. My prior comfort with a casual investment strategy, resulted from my high savings rate. Barring a catastrophe, investment results have been noise in my system. Work has been a sure thing - effectively unlimited money and "free" premium health care. Lately, the price is misery, but I have strong loss aversion. Quitting a secure job sends that needle to 10.
Cost of living adjustments...
So this is where I started yesterday morning. Tiers in increasing difficulty:
1. I found $6k in easy slack - gym toys, miscategorized income taxes, whisky, video games, eating out, podcasts, and audio books.
2. Pandemic induced food delivery (around $3300/yr) - not so easy. The pandemic also pushed larger expenses from life - gym membership, swimming, driving, eating out, travel, house keeper, etc. We miss them.
3. Time intensive claw back of food, entertainment, pet and home budgets. Maybe $2-3k. Painful, really gets at insecurities around food and money.
4. Sacrificing home or healthcare. Home is locally optimized. Healthcare - I am working the system, but will ultimately be top priority. Unfortunately, these are also the heavy hitters.
The slack in tiers 1 and 2 creates quality of life. Can I find different but equal? Maybe. I hate cleaning - but if the trade is a gym membership, video games, whisky, and eating out??? I'll grab my toilet brush and mop.
Do I need to? I'd like to know that before I upend life. My wife being sick complicates the trade - time, energy and resilience are more constrained.
Hacking hobbies, credit card rewards, etc. - I see this as low paid work. I am not better than any job, but planning for it doesn't make sense, relative to my current compensation.