Your macro/mkt prediction for 2020? Let's see who gets it right

[Quadalupe]

@ertyu, that's why I am partial to the permanent portfolio!

[Dream of Freedom]

To be fair there was a massive black swan event.

Marco economic prediction is rarely the only method of prediction employed by stock pickers. They usually combine it with fundamental and technical analysis. The combination was not measured with this exercise.

It isn't simply the percentage of right vs wrong that is important but the magnitude by which you are right or wrong matter as well. You can for instance simply lower the amount being wrong hurts through stop losses or various option strategies. So if you are right 50% of the time but when you are right you make 20% and when you are wrong you lose 10% that is actually a good bet.

This exercise does provide feedback for our predictions so they may actually improve over time.

[7Wannabe5]

I was mostly right. If anybody would like a copy of the prospectus for my Permaculture 2030 Edible Hedge Fund, please contact my VOA @ wannabe.llc.jk.