COVID topic vol 2

[thrifty++]

I was waiting for stuff like this. Russia underreporting covid and admits actual deaths are about 3 times whats reported. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55474028

This will be the case for a significant number of countries across the world. I suspect actual deaths so far are more in the vicinity of five million. We wont find this out for some time though.

[jacob]

Currently the hardest hit state in the US.

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... ambulances

[thrifty++]

No one wants to touch vaccines from China. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/ch ... 3UfazFBF_E

[Ego]

Currently the hardest hit state in the US.

USNS Mercy with 1000 beds was in Los Angeles in the spring. They treated 77 patients before leaving. They returned home not long after and were here for a while but as far as I can tell have now moved to Portland. Poor planning or strategic panic porn to encourage vaccination adoption?

We are a safety valve for LA and are at 83% capacity for ICU beds and under 80% for overall hospital beds. That doesn't count military or surge capacity. Orange County shows 800 ICU beds available.

[chenda]

I have to say I find this idea that governments worldwide deliberately created over capacity back in spring to deliberately exacerbate panic amongst the population into subsequently accepting a vaccine which had yet to be invented as...untenable. Like most conspiracy theories, it requires the perpetrators to do a Schrödinger's cat and be both utterly incompetent and utterly genius at the same time.

[Ego]

@chenda, The spring showed us that we have the ability to create capacity fast. Now we have lessons from the spring to make even better decisions. Yet LA County did not do it. It is strange to me that counties with administrations that are not friendly with Governor Newsom seem to have planned well for the winter surge.

[ZAFCorrection]

@nomadscientist

Has there been any research on the value add of regular medical intervention on covid? I guess since they figured out to dial back the ventilator usage and various other improvements it must have gone up since the beginning of the year.

Also, a curious case of bean counting is no one bothered to advocate for scaling up n95 production (or at least a fail in implementing the "at all costs" strategy). At most it would have taken a few months to bring up an almost arbitrary amount of new capacity. I don't think anyone seriously believes that cloth masks are as effective as n95s, but all that extra capacity would have gone to waste after the pandemic.

[Viktor K]

UK strain confirmed in US.

Should exacerbate the winter surge situation?

Or maybe will be mitigated slightly by vaccine rollout.

I think vaccine too late to affect the increase in infections from the alleged 70% increase in contagiousness.

Not likely the US will do anything to combat the new strain, but imagine restrictions between now and March or next summer-ish increase. The US strategy is generally to keep the r0 staying around ~1 right? (I thought that was mentioned at one point in this thread)

Any reason to believe restrictions will lessen as infections go up? Or that the more contagious variety will not affect the r0 significantly?

[Western Red Cedar]

DW got the first round of the pfizer vaccine this afternoon. I'll let folks know if there are any adverse affects in the next couple of days.

[mooretrees]

I got the first Moderna shot yesterday. Have a sore arm just like flu shots but nothing else. Supposedly the second shot of the Moderna is the one where folks really get the side effects.

[nomadscientist]

@nomadscientist

Has there been any research on the value add of regular medical intervention on covid? I guess since they figured out to dial back the ventilator usage and various other improvements it must have gone up since the beginning of the year.

Indeed - how many did they kill the first time around?

Also, a curious case of bean counting is no one bothered to advocate for scaling up n95 production (or at least a fail in implementing the "at all costs" strategy). At most it would have taken a few months to bring up an almost arbitrary amount of new capacity. I don't think anyone seriously believes that cloth masks are as effective as n95s, but all that extra capacity would have gone to waste after the pandemic.

Why do you think it's bean counting? Sure, if these guys really believed masks worked and Corona mattered, they'd do that. They didn't.

70+ year old politicians with all the connections in the world wear cloth masks with logos printed on them.

Anthony Fauci, an 80 year old man who is apparently some kind of scientist, wears a piece of cloth with "wear a mask" printed on it.

I, meanwhile, a nobody, rustled up some N95s in March.

[nomadscientist]

I did notice Kamala wearing doublemask at her gratuitous vaccination photo-op. A piece of cloth on the outside and an N95 underneath. Always said she was cunning.

[George the original one]

Also, a curious case of bean counting is no one bothered to advocate for scaling up n95 production (or at least a fail in implementing the "at all costs" strategy).

My county has been passing out free boxes of N95 masks once a month since June.

[OTCW]

I got the first Moderna shot yesterday. Have a sore arm just like flu shots but nothing else. Supposedly the second shot of the Moderna is the one where folks really get the side effects.

I got the Moderna round 1 shot on Christmas Eve. I haven't heard the 2nd shot/side effect theory. I am scheduled to go back for round 2 on Jan 21, so will report back then re any side effect issues.

[Alphaville]

41 y.o. louisiana congressman-elect dies of covid

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5320 ... f-covid-19

[tonyedgecombe]

The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine has been approved in the UK today.

In other news we are going to extend the delay between the two jabs to 12 weeks.

[thrifty++]

Ok so now we have news from China saying the actual figures were ten times what was reported. This after Russia admitted death toll was 3 times what was reported. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid- ... GAQSSJR2U/

This is from the Chinese govt so its likely the true situation is far worse than is being admitted now.

[jacob]

In other news we are going to extend the delay between the two jabs to 12 weeks.

Apparently, there's a reason for that.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... dians.html

[A Life of FI]

Because the lack of exhalation filter in the unmodified consumer version(*) would require everybody in the nursing home to wear one whenever they find themselves in the same room as someone else. This would require people to demonstrate an unusual level of conscientiousness, awareness, and discipline far beyond what can be expected from everybody in a group of random people.

But then we are effectively causing bankruptcies, depression and lockdown deaths among the people not-at-risk because the at-risk people can’t be bothered to wear a mask when they are in a room with someone else.

We are saying to people stop your life, close your business and in some cases go into poverty/depression to save the old, because the old won't wear a mask when they are in a room with someone else. Even though wearing a mask is infinitely easier than any of those things we are asking the non-at-risk to do and much more effective.

If the masks that you cited above work as you said (which I am not disputing) and the at-risk choose not to use them, didn’t they choose to put themselves at risk and should bear the consequences accordingly. Why should others be forced to destroy their lives for someone else being reckless with theirs.

[Ego]

Apparently, there's a reason for that.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... dians.html

In one of the recent TWiVs they mentioned that cross-vaccination trials began even before the mRNA vaccines were approved. First shot, Moderna. Second shot, Pfizer. Or visa-versa. They seemed to think it was wise to prepare in case there is a shortage of one of the boosters or in case of accidental cross-vaccination.

Of course, my suspicious mind immediately thought this was brilliant on the part of both companies. Make sure there are no horrible side effects if someone is administered one shot of each vaccine. Then, after most people have gotten their two shots a researcher will materialize to 'discover' that each vaccine protects in a slightly different way. Just enough to justify vaccinating everyone with the alternating shot.