Your macro/mkt prediction for 2020? Let's see who gets it right

[thedollar]

By 31 December I predict:
S&P500: 3,881.82 (+20%)
TSLA: $500.00 (+13%)

S&P500: 3,691.96 - com'on still 200 points to go
TSLA: $3,208.80 - crazy stuff... $500 looked like a moonshot at the time of my prediction

[ertyu]

TSLA: $3,208.80 - crazy stuff... $500 looked like a moonshot at the time of my prediction

congrats dude
you're right, it's been quite a ride

I, on the other hand, seem to have been quite wrong

[Alphaville]

i think everyone is wrong. even if guessing which way tesla went, it was wrong by an enormous margin.

so maybe only @seppia was right?

anyway, now i have a question about tesla (maybe the wrong place to ask).

why is the valuation not a bubble?

i get that elon is a genius bla bla etc but otoh his operation seems to me quite rickety, and i wouldn't buy his cars. who is buying cars these days anyway?

so where is the real strength underlying the price spike? battery technology? public perception of maverick genius? no other sector to speculate during pandemic? his mars company? made a baby with grimes? something else i'm missing?

i'm seriously asking, not attempting to troll. i think the valuation is some sort of crowd phenomenon but i'm likely missing something. what's the trading idea? thanks in advance.

[ertyu]

SP500 adoption and the associated flows.
was just reading a twitter thread this morning arguing this might reverse following adoption (22nd) and cause the entire sp500 to turn over due to the sheer size of tsla's mkt cap.
plunge protection team will intervene eventually of course
have been wondering about leap very otm puts

[Alphaville]

yeah im like how can it have a higher market cap than toyota? i can go down the street and buy a prius today. his mars joint is more interesting. just saying.

ps i dont trade options. maybe some day.

[7Wannabe5]

I think I did pretty well with my predictions. I’m only off by less than a percent on S&P and obviously there were a lot more new devices connected to the internet. For Biden instead of Bloomberg I think I still deserve half credit. Too bad I didn’t bet more money on my intuition

[Alphaville]

oh right the s&p up 14.62% as of right which tracks nicely so far but ain't over till it's over.

i did get distracted by mike bloomberg being shredded everywhere, the poor guy, after all his billions. and his biden support operation couldn't flip florida either (and i say this wanting him to have succeeded there.)

and no, no substitutions

[2Birds1Stone]

In hindsight, it appears I may have used a crystal ball.

[Alphaville]

In hindsight, it appears I may have used a crystal ball.

magic! indeed.

his mars joint is more interesting. just saying.

https://www.wired.com/story/spacex-laun ... rs-rocket/

oopsie

[Alphaville]

anyway re: this thread's main question + responses

i think it's important to visualize some possible scenarios both near & farfetched, both large & small

i think it's necessary to make plans in case of those eventualities. maybe pare down to basic concepts through careful reasoning to avoid getting lost in minutiae.

but it's even more important to not fully commit to any single scenario as a given. we're not fortune tellers, we're just dealing in probabilities.

eta: oh lol this was meant for @7w5's collapse thread. but same idea applies

[Lemur]

@Alphaville

I see ...if that is the case....

Short-term : Call options on Silver, Lithium, Copper, and Water.
Long-term: LEAPS / PUTS on society at large.

[Campitor]

Stocks will balloon as the FED tries to keep the market afloat like a sailor blowing air into a leaking inflatable dinghy in shark infested waters.

Businesses will be all hat and no cattle as there will be nowhere to invest the money as result of consumer job losses and eroding confidence in discretionary purchases. They will be bloated with cash and unable to spend it but they will look good on paper. Look for a lot of stupid business ventures (there's plenty already ).

Business that were booming because of COVID will see a downturn and possibly add to the unemployed.

Saber rattling (economic and military) will begin in earnest as the demographic aging bomb adds to the current miasma left behind by the COVID economic bombing.

Business will be unable to retain and/or recruit the required professionals to replace those aging out of the workforce - more financial/infrastructure disruptions.

The resulting tax increases, if they get passed the red team in DC, will further impact the economy.

[Toska2]

0/4*

* The stock market really surprised me with rising up despite the millions of unemployed and the general slow down of most industries.

** I dont know if a Biden win was for unity or a debt jubilee.


2021 prediction: USA starts or escalates a conflict. Politicians know the best way to win is to create tribalism. Trump did a a lot of chest thumping, real politicians start wars.

[thedollar]

@ertyu Should we do a new thread for 2021 predictions? I kinda enjoyed this one...

[Viktor K]

@ertyu Should we do a new thread for 2021 predictions? I kinda enjoyed this one...

Yes definitely. I actually opened this one thinking it was for the upcoming year, and was disappointed

[ertyu]

We could just use the same thread? Or should we start a new one


edit: made new thread enjoy

[bostonimproper]

Stock market begins a moderate correction during a rocky summer and early fall, S&P down around 15-25% by end of year.

Rocky spring for obvious reasons and now the market is 20% up. +0/1 points

Amazon announces it is getting into the EMR business. Health insurers and pharma drop on the news. AMZN ends the year flat or slightly up.

AWS HealthLake announced last week, meanwhile building up Pillpack investment over much of the year. Not much market movement on insurers yet. +0.5/1 points

Republicans maintain control of Senate, Democrats of House. Trump loses re-election. One or more traditionally red sun belt states (e.g. Utah, Texas, Georgia) votes for the Democratic presidential candidate.

Georgia TBD, but I think I got this one spot on. +1/1 points

Iran conducts attacks against Trump properties after he leaves office (more a five year prediction than one year).
African swine fever devastates European pork.
A sizeable protest movement erupts in mainland China.
PG&E has another round of widespread blackouts during the dry season in California. Utility is taken over by its hedge fund investors.

None of these, but I’m willing to bet we see some of these in 2021-2022. +0/4 points

Net migration to the state continues to be negative and drop further, cutting population growth in half.

+1/1 points

So my total for the year is 2.5/8 points, or an F-.

[Alphaville]

Netscape will rule again

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -deal-text

[Dream of Freedom]

I expect some headline inflation in the form of higher commodity and real estate prices, but consumer price inflation to remain subdued in America.

Commodities fell slightly. Home prices have risen at the fastest pace since 2014. Consumer price inflation 1.2% year over year.
2/3

In Europe consumer price inflation will outpace that of the US

Nope.
0/1

Industrial real estate will likely outperform commercial

Yep.
1/1

I expect Chinese growth-rates to revert closer to the long term average.

No. Coronavirus happened.
0/1

Total: 3/6
Basically a coin flip.

[ertyu]

We're none of us unintelligent and practically no one got it. How is one supposed to invest med to long term??? How can I ever have confidence enough in a 3-5 yr thesis to put my money on it