Zillow Realtor Trulia

[RooBadley]

I'm looking for an easy ballpark estimate of my house market value. The Adair Homes 3/2 with two car garage is the most common house in my half of the county so there are many comps.

I simply take the average of Zillow, Realtor, and Trulia and subtract 10%. My question to anyone who has experience on those websites: Is 10% a reasonably correct sum to subtract from their estimates?

[jacob]

It varies by neighborhood. Better to look at recent comparatives. Find similar homes that recently sold for a more accurate estimate. You can get a better idea looking at pictures and other extraneous variables than an algorithm can by fitting to a/the few available tables.

[RooBadley]

Yeah, these numbers look a little too scattered. When plotting a graph going forward, I wanted to be able to get a (sort of) consistent monthly snapshot without having to actively monitor the market. Garbage in, garbage out I guess. I'll probably get really accurate from time to time and see if that roughly lines up with my subtract 10% dartboard throw.

I just got off the phone with DW and we were 64 thousand dollars apart!

[jacob]

I mainly track zillow. I've noticed (over the past 5 years) that there's a steady upwards trend for our house ... but occasionally the estimate resets by which I mean it instantly drops about 5% (as does the price of all the houses on the block) after which it starts incrementing again. All the while the actual prices of houses sold are easily 10-30% off and usually tilting lower but sometimes much higher depending on the condition.

I have some guesses as to what could algorithmically cause this behavior as some numbers update continuously (interest rate) and others more rarely (nearby sales).

The old-fashioned way of course would be to ask 3+ local realtors for an independent estimate.

[sky]

I think zillow uses proprty tax valuations, at least as a starting point.

[RooBadley]

Yes I'm sure zillow makes good use of assessed valuations but then they crunch their numbers to convert to fair market value. When I look at tax history and assessed value for my house it's not helpful to me at all, not even close. In my state (probably most everywhere, IDK) the market value rides a much more wicked roller coaster than the assessed value. It's just going to require a fair bit of effort over a period of time so I can compare a real number to my lazy subtract 10% of the average. DW knows a couple realtors but I don't want them to think they have a fish on.

[Scott 2]

What's wrong with building a realtor relationship? You want that before you need it. This is exactly the type of thing they can help with.

[RooBadley]

Sure, but I don't like the feeling of wasting their time. I don't want to sell, just track my NW.

Just generally uncomfortable asking for help.

[Scott 2]

They have the tools to get your estimate in minutes. The work is lead generation from their perspective, part of building their sales funnel. You might use them later, you might give them a referral.

My wife has a realtor friend who, once we told her of our streets of interest, literally went cold calling for us. She walked the streets, going door to door, telling people she had a potential buyer. She managed to get us into one of the homes, we were very close to making a deal, but got last minute cold feet. She also looked at our house in person, did some comps, etc. After pulling out, she still showed us several more homes. When we decided to put the shopping process on hold, she was totally ok with it. We'll probably use her when the time comes, even if it is in a few years.

[RooBadley]

literally went cold calling for us. She walked the streets, going door to door, telling people she had a potential buyer. She managed to get us into one of the homes,

Ohmigod. Thanks for the warning. I'm neurotic and this would send me into the abyss. Like that Larry David show.

"Who are you? Huh? Who sent you? The Badley's? What the hell do they want? Huh? Why? Fuck you. Now get back in your pearlescent Escalade and go tell Roo Badley no fucking chainsaws before 9 am."

I live all the way down at the lonely end of a half-mile cul-de-sac, I have to pass all the neighbors to get out to the road. I get that cringe-shiver at the thought of unleashing this scenario. That was close. Thank you.