@jacob GOOD POINTS...
So then if we want sustainability + technology (avoiding going back to the stone age) + wildlife (limiting mass extinction to the extent possible) we need all of the following?
- Population pressure, preferably the "good" kind of voluntarily not having too many kids rather than population decline due to disaster or government control (New Worlds are not the solution but would be nice to buy us time)
- Closed loop technology (recycling all waste so as not to require mining new resources indefinitely... unless asteroid mining can be done without too much waste)
- Strong perpetual wildlife protections in large contiguous areas (never cutting into the protected area even if your people are suffering from famine or other resource constraints... improvements to the above help wildlife's odds of survival)
Closing the loops on a global scale (must appeal to the majority rather than the quirky ERE mindset) while still holding onto and improving technology seems to be much less straightforward than population limitation (which is going to peak regardless of what we do) and wildlife protection (which we already kind of know how to do and can hopefully improve in the future).
I suppose we'll need a "box" that takes in plastic, electronics, batteries, etc. and spits out topsoil, precious metals, and toxic chemicals (separately!); situated in a place where the waste heat from such a process can be utilized. If modern waste can be reused in such a radically improved way compared to today's "recycling", and if that could be the difference between sustainability and decline, I would say it is definitely worth a try!
jacob wrote: ↑Sun Mar 25, 2012 10:59 pm
what's the ultimate point in considering whatever happens far in the future?
The "point" of life is to fight entropy. We have been doing this on larger and larger scales from the days of simple chemical reactions in a primordial soup. I know net entropy always increases but the point is that life "organizes" matter more and more as it spreads whereas e.g. a fire spreads while "disorganizing" its fuel. Humanity is conscious of its ability to fight entropy, and it is easy to see that humans of all cultures embrace this fight by the way we find beauty in intricately designed clothing, buildings, gardens, etc. It is generally a good thing to create rather than destroy, more satisfying to the soul to produce rather than consume.
In our battle against entropy, we sought to control nature, but now we are relearning that we are still subject to the laws of nature. Oops. It doesn't matter what the
ultimate point or end game is since humanity's goals and humans themselves are bound to evolve over time. The point is that we don't want our species or complex civilizations to die off, losing the battle against entropy. To most people, a complex 21st century technological society with population pushed to the limit is seen as more desirable than a simple stone age tribe with plenty of room to grow, in part because most desire that complexity even if it does not make them happier than they would be living a much simpler life.
One possible "end game" extrapolation would be that humanity will continue to fight entropy on grander scales, becoming a spacefaring species, perhaps harnessing the power of the sun with a Dyson sphere, and ultimately figuring out how to prevent the heat death of the universe (or greatly extend the time until heat death of our little corner of the universe). Perhaps even unlock ways to travel to other young universes.
I think that since humans are easily fooled, humanity might be satisfied indefinitely with much less grand ambitions. As the video gaming industry has demonstrated, most people are satisfied progressing through life virtually even if no progress is made in their real lives. This is not likely to ebb any time soon as virtual worlds become more real - and more optimized to not only dish out rapid-fire dopamine hits (a la 80's arcade classics or today's smart phone time wasters) but to provide real enduring satisfaction in the players' lives - more than can be had from the average job (maybe even social life?). Perhaps virtual space will suffice as the final frontier. We won't even need The Matrix to keep humans out of trouble if 90% of them sign on voluntarily and the other 10% can live "real" lives maintaining/servicing the 90% in a sustainable way. But we'll need a lot of those e-waste looper boxes too.