COVID-19

[Campitor]

Reuters has a nice set of COVID graphics for those looking to parse data:

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-COR ... index.html

[classical_Liberal]

Interestingly, new cases in the US seem to be increasing the fastest in Southern areas where summer heat drives people indoors. Whereas this spring, they were centered in Northern areas where winter cold drives people indoors. Coincidence I'm sure.

[jacob]

https://rt.live/ showing R0 for all states on a single graph + R0(t) on a state by state basis.

[chenda]

Interestingly, new cases in the US seem to be increasing the fastest in Southern areas where summer heat drives people indoors. Whereas this spring, they were centered in Northern areas where winter cold drives people indoors. Coincidence I'm sure.

Here the unprecedented heat wave is driving people outdoors, which may lead to more social congregation and spread. Reopening on the 4th July is going to be a big gamble.

[tonyedgecombe]

Here the unprecedented heat wave is driving people outdoors, which may lead to more social congregation and spread. Reopening on the 4th July is going to be a big gamble.

Yes, I've just been to the supermarket and other than myself nobody was wearing a mask. Distancing rules seemed to have gone out the window. We seem set to drag this out for as long as we can.

[chenda]

Yes, I've just been to the supermarket and other than myself nobody was wearing a mask. Distancing rules seemed to have gone out the window. We seem set to drag this out for as long as we can.

Its unbelievable, appalling to see the crowds at Bournemouth beach today. Given that Germany is experience a substantial spike following in the easing of it's much stricter and earlier lockdown this does not bode well.

[jennypenny]

Even though I was elated last night about Liverpool, I was dismayed to see so many people at the celebration without masks. You knew they were going to congregate at Anfield, but why not wear a mask?

[horsewoman]

Its unbelievable, appalling to see the crowds at Bournemouth beach today. Given that Germany is experience a substantial spike following in the easing of it's much stricter and earlier lockdown this does not bode well.

To be fair, the "massive spike" we are seeing in Germany can be traced back to one large meat processing plant, where people work and live in terrible conditions. It is really appalling and highlights how (mostly) eastern European migrant workers are exploited in Germany, especially in the meat industry. The spread probably happened because most of the workers live on-site cooped up in dorms, and because the management of the slaughterhouse tried to hush up the outbreak at first.
Most districts are without active cases, including ours which used to be one of the hardest hit areas. At this point it is not clear if the easing of the lockdown has negative repercussions.

[nomadscientist]

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-surge ... f2c95.html

38000 new cases in the US yesterday and the moving averages are now surpassing April's. The #positives/#tests are increasing again in many states; primarily the sun belt whereas the north east still has decreasing numbers. The difference is that this time most of the new positives are younger which keeps the pressure on the hospitals/death rates lower than in April.

Question: is the vector here mainly the entertainment industry or activism industry? (do I repeat myself)

[classical_Liberal]

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-surge ... f2c95.html
38000 new cases in the US yesterday and the moving averages are now surpassing April's.

Younger people are making up a greater share of all cases, and tend to be less susceptible to serious injury or death.

This is exactly what we want to help reach herd immunity, no? The more quickly it circulates in the lower risk population, the more quickly those in the higher risk population can come out of isolation.

[theanimal]

@C_L- I think that would hold if there was a more stringent lockdown. With most states being open or having a sieve lock lockdown, those who are vulnerable to the disease aren't isolated from younger, possibly less vulnerable carriers.

[jacob]

Question: is the vector here mainly the entertainment industry or activism industry? (do I repeat myself)

Overall social distancing actually increased during the protests as more people stayed at home because they didn't want to tangle with the protests and/or streets and stores were shut down during the protests. The big vector that sun belt governors are currently shutting down are young people hanging around indoor in bars w/o masks. So bars are closing again and restaurants are subject to more restrictions.

This would be rather obvious from what we know of the vectors. Way more man-hours are in spent drinking in bars when allowed than at protests. Bars allow for a higher dose exposure from an infected person sitting two tables away for a few hours vis-a-vis walking in a mob outdoors where one does not remain in close contact with infectors for very long.

Perhaps people just needed a reality check after the pandemic had been politicized/gone away for a few weeks. The fear level is rising again and more people are actually wearing masks despite it being considered politically controversial. See e.g. https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/ ... ll-wave-14

Methinks we're basically in the "dance" part of https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56 ... with some states getting tapped again. Note that R0 is not diverging too far from the 1 that holds the disease burden more or less steady.

[classical_Liberal]

those who are vulnerable to the disease aren't isolated from younger, possibly less vulnerable carriers.

Just because the gov't isn't mandating it (they are in most places in nursing homes/assisted living, at least to some degree), doesn't mean they aren't more likely to be self isolating. As a matter of fact, this is likely the reason more low risk people are now contracting the disease.

[theanimal]

I'm in agreement. However, not all less vulnerable people live independently of vulnerable people.

[thrifty++]

Things are not looking as rosey downunder as they once were.

We are having a steady stream of new virus in NZ every day. They are all so far cases at the border for people in quarantine. All NZers returning from overseas. As the cases grow overseas more people are bringing it here when they come back. So far there is no evidence of community transmission again. However there has been major border control cock up. 51 people were released early with no test. 2,400 people were released without a test (although only 51 were before the end of the quarantine period at least). Border control has been ramped up after the media got all over it. Im just hoping it has not resulted in community transmission again that we done know about it.

New cases in Australia seem to be growing at a higher rate in Australia again. Particularly in the state of Victoria where there seems to be issues with community transmission. It looks like any chance of a trans tasman bubble between NZ and Australia is unlikely to occur this year.

[chenda]

Boris is apparently going to open up travel to Spain, Italy and Greece and waive the 14 quarantine on return. I can understand the desire to salvage the holiday season but it seems very risky for all concerned. But in truth I'd love to get away sometime this year. Aeroplanes seem high risk, but maybe a road trip later in the year might be ok...

[tonyedgecombe]

Is foreign travel any worse than travel within your home country. I suppose getting on a plane has some risks but if I drove onto the Eurotunnel to travel to France is that any different from visiting Cornwall.

My main concerns would be logistical, getting ill in a foreign country isn't much fun nor is getting stuck abroad if the borders shut down again.

[IlliniDave]

Here in Alabama there is still a surge of sorts. On my weekly shopping trip the large majority of folks (80%-90%) still seem to be wearing masks and doing the right things. But I'm seeing more-and-more "selfies at the bar" type photos on FB, albeit mostly outdoor seating. No indication the powers that be are looking at rolling back any of the openings yet.

[Campitor]

I'm not surprised people are ignoring any stay at home orders. It's hard to argue about being responsible and social distancing when weeks of doing the opposite was parading across the screen daily with all the riots.

The toothpaste is now out of the tube. We have now entered the Darwin Award stage.

[chenda]

I'm not surprised people are ignoring any stay at home orders. It's hard to argue about being responsible and social distancing when weeks of doing the opposite was parading across the screen daily with all the riots.

All the more reason to.