Five Years, Lord Willing

Where are you and where are you going?
Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

I was warned not to buy BA before the pandemic by those on this board. Seppia said bad idea. It's been the stock equivalent of the tv series Lost. The plane crash was just the beginning of the problem. Morally suspect leadership, pandemic, Warren Buffet vacates airlines. Yesterday Delta announced discontinuation of 777's. My only decision is whether to sell out or hope I can be made whole on my deathbed which will probably end with a Boeing flying into my nursing home. MY SPCE has also been clobbered but its a negligible investment.

One I forgot to mention is PYPL. I have buying since 2018 but it never broke out until recently. Cash is now truly disgusting and everything is moving towards no touch pay so even handing a card over is going away.

ertyu
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by ertyu »

The argument for "sell": would you buy it today at the current price? No? Then sell. In addition: what is the opportunity cost of not selling? If you were to sell, what alternative use do you have for the cash and how much will it generate?

The argument for "don't sell": all the things you listed: buffet vacating airlines, pandemic, crap leadership. All those things are known knowns and make people feel pessimistic. Could it be the worst of the pessimism is already baked in the price, and things have nowhere to go but up from here? BA will certainly take another tumble if we retest the lows, but you could argue they are a strategic industry and may get "help" that the mkt isn't anticipating. Additionally: BA is asset-heavy. You *want* the asset-heavy shit when inflation hits. Counter-argument: so are airlines. Buffet vacating probably implies he anticipates deflation first (he does anticipate inflation eventually, he has spoken against bonds in relation to stocks on a couple of occasions).

Imo, if you are certain about getting out, consider selling the furthest-dated atm covered puts you can for additional income.

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

On the buy side: Industry is still bi-cameral, company will most likely be tethered to America's recovery from Pandemic both financially and symbolically.

On the sell side: My losses are so steep, it will most likely take years to be made whole. The right high flying SAS would get me there faster.

I hate selling. If I was to bet on recovery, I'd go Disney over BA.

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

Governor of Mississippi reads list of high school graduates.

https://twitter.com/yokoboji/status/126 ... -azcrac%2F


ertyu
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by ertyu »

:lol: dear lord....

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

This could be the positive development BA needed.

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

Stahlmann's polyamorous necromancing of old threads makes for great reading. It's the difference between basing one's life on philosophy as opposed to the news, which is a great danger in this day and age.

I am more Bogelhead than ERE as I'm not really pulling both ends of the frugality string equally. My stockpiling of cash vs. DIY dichotomy is heavily skewed towards the former. The one breakthrough I have had is to become more personally responsible in my investing and moving out of indexing and fund of funds retail investing thinking. Less spending seems to be more dependable as a strategy when one is younger and healthier. As one gets older, bigger stash seems more desirous. Since I am not young, I don't see much changing. Although the pandemic has been an opportunity to explore more cost cutting.

The issue with stash is here today, gone tomorrow unless your stash is cash but you still have issues there as well. There's always an underlying anxiety of "is it really that number" and that leads to more of the same thinking. Due to a fortunate RE pop and NASDAQ explosion, we have cleared new bars: 712K net worth, $600K cash/equities. Our NW has doubled in three and a half years. I originally stated $750K with 2/3 in equities 1/3 in house we're done. We are lopsided on that account. However, bars get moved, goal posts backed up. Bogleheads seems to be about pulling the plug. ERE as I understand it is about not having a plug. Bogleheads doesn't really provide much options beyond FU as psychological development is not as advanced as ERE when it comes to the options one has created for oneself. It's limited to picking the type of car from which you're going to flip the bird. It may be freeing but not necessarily freedom.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

So, I take it we are not to look forward to future journal entries detailing your adventures as a hitchhiking forager?

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

I told my wife the other day that I will die like Michael Corleone at the end of III. An old, bitter, depleted and haunted sweater-wearing, solitary man, falling off his chair in the middle of the afternoon. Fortunately, I won't have memories of Sofia Coppola trying to act like my daughter running through my mind.

classical_Liberal
Posts: 2012
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by classical_Liberal »

Jason wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 5:46 am
There's always an underlying anxiety of "is it really that number" and that leads to more of the same thinking.... I originally stated $750K with 2/3 in equities 1/3 in house we're done. We are lopsided on that account. However, bars get moved, goal posts backed up.
One of Stahlmann's thread revivals was something of the nature, "why ERE". What you have written above was my "why". I began to realize monetary security, in and of itself, just won't cut it. The more I have the more I want, and the more I have to lose. COVID and the recent civil unrest has been a secondary, though somewhat related, motivation for me as well. I grok what you mean by being older and more into the Bogelheads ideals, but if you want to find more motivation to move towards the ERE side of things, internalizing what you just wrote is basically what did it for me.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

I have been very amused by his necromancing as well. Stahlmann’s Revival sounds like a sweet band name.

Contemplation of “what is real” when looking at numbers grow has been a fundamental part of my development as an investor. This seeking after what is real has dominated my time in recent years and sometimes I feel this has taken away so much of my dreamy dives into literature and philosophy. At times I begin to feel like a Philistine.

Then I realize this seizing upon what is real and being an actor in this world is what literature and philosophy is made of.

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

I am trapped between two dreams, financially speaking. The double comma dream and the JAFI dream. At this point, the double comma dream is less dreamy than the JAFI dream. If I could live on one JAFI, I could live to 130 which is like Old Testament old. If I could live on two JAFI's, I could hang up my spurs right now and live another forty years as long as I didn't do something significantly anti-double JAFI. The fact is I don't want to live until I'm in my mid-90's although 130 seems kind of cool because I could say "Fuck you, I'm 130 years old" anytime I want because who's going to want to fight a 130 year old person. That's like fighting a toddler. Even a 90 year old person would be embarrassed to fight a 130 year old person. If you are 90 like Warren Buffet people just start saying "He's 90" in a derogatory way. But if you're 130 years old people are going to say "No shit, 130." I would say ideally, we are quadruple double JAFI's which means there has to be something I can do at this moment that involves not saving money but doing something in order that I no longer have to spend money on it. Otherwise I could end up being 129 worrying that I'm going to wake up the next day. Life is some cruel ass shit. There is just no way getting around that fact.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

You could start looting. Return on investment is infinity. And honestly who is going to stop a 130 year old from pulling down bourbon from the shelf of a blown out liquor store? License to do whatever you want. “Dude, he’s fucking 130, leave him alone.”

classical_Liberal
Posts: 2012
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by classical_Liberal »

Buffets problem with being 90 isn't age. He doesn't know how to play his age cards. You don't need to be 130 to act confused as f**k. 77 works just fine for that, ask Biden. I've told anyone who'll listen that on my 80th birthday I'm going into walmart and shoplift some big ticket item. Just gonna walk out the door with it. If someone stops me, I'll say "Why are you in my living room!?".

theanimal
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by theanimal »

I want to be able to act with the confidence of the 130 year old but physically stay the same age I am now. People say that about Dave Chappelle, he is unapologetically himself and does not give a f what others think. I find that something worth aspiring to, being absolutely comfortable with who you are. I guess fuck you money can help with that for some.

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

(1) When I play with numbers, it's the equivalent of a diaper wearing baby given its first set of blocks but lessons are often best taught through time and experience than by studying the topic at hand. Net worth growth has varying levels of significance for everyone, but for me it's all I got. My financial life can be summarized in three columns. Over the past four years, our net worth has roughly doubled, but as significant our debt to asset level has been sliced in half from 33% to 16%. It's basic but its empowering. Having $150 and owing $50 is better than having $700 and owing $600. Of course having $100 and owing nothing is best as it speaks to something simpler.

(2) Further to the volatility thread, last week I had a confrontation with the last six months. The stock market swings have been like watching a meth addict play with a pendulum. Yes, you can look the other way when you see a car crash, but when it's a New Year's pile up on an icy Ukranian road, you are bound to notice a decapitated head rolling down the street. So there's that. The other angle, is that our net worth has increased 30% in the last four months, 37% since the beginning of the year and 43% since November despite the global Ides of March. Is that humblebrag? Yes, but in a derivative sense because my "confrontation" resulted in a minor meltdown which was an admixture of "this is getting away from me/"is this real"/"is this actual money"/"should I sell" panic. Managing one's money is managing one's self and I think this was a moment of existential catch up. A poverty mentality is healthy but it needs to adapt to changing circumstances. Thinking as though you are poor is great but at some point you have to admit that you are no longer poor if in fact you are no longer poor in order to effectively continue to think as though you are poor. Warren Buffet does not forget his net worth when he hits the Mickey D's drive through every morning. He just orders based on how he feels that day. The key is that he doesn't go to the IHOP on the days he's feeling rich. In order to reassert control, I trimmed what amounted to .005 of total NW and converted to cash and will continue to do so periodically.

ertyu
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by ertyu »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 3:57 pm
Buffets problem with being 90 isn't age. He doesn't know how to play his age cards. You don't need to be 130 to act confused as f**k. 77 works just fine for that, ask Biden. I've told anyone who'll listen that on my 80th birthday I'm going into walmart and shoplift some big ticket item. Just gonna walk out the door with it. If someone stops me, I'll say "Why are you in my living room!?".
the elderly in japan do this already in response to elderly poverty. two options: either nothing happens, or they go to jail where there's a bed and three square meals a day.

@jason, has the experience with the past couple of months changed how you're likely to deal with the next meltdown?

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

ertyu wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:20 am

@jason, has the experience with the past couple of months changed how you're likely to deal with the next meltdown?
I don't know what to do. NW went up 150K in a month, 2/3 from market gains. Now over 800K. I started picking at FSLY at $20 before Covid, traded some CSCO for it when it went to $40 and now it's $93. Is there a 12 step program for people addicted to the Nasdaq? I think I have a problem. I was just trying to jump start some growth and the next thing I know I'm a bona fide, Grade A Reddit level douchebag. I went from Buffet to Barstool in three months. This is not going to end well. And I do not want to be working at 130. I can't even fathom the humiliation. Taking orders from snot nosed kid more than one hundred years younger than me.

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Lemur
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Lemur »

Well you know what they say. Stonks only go up. $PLD Calls

Just kidding...

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