You mean like Spanish flu ?
Does this happen to be related to the fact you’re a prepper?
Not judging. I’ve had the desire for an “I told you so” moment for a few friends and family lately. Mostly regarding the financial sh.t storm they’re in right now. I’ve been smart enough to keep these dark thoughts to myself.
FWIW I did do some modeling in grad school. I was in a corner of science where we didn’t have a lot of experimental data and we had to come up with all these phenomenological models for the little peeks at reality our science provided. I really sucked at the modeling. I remember having my adviser sh.t can my paper because I was 2x off predicting my experimental result. I tried really hard on that one...lots of fudge factors and special terms and still I just couldn’t predict what I’d found in the lab. I got the shape of the curve but the amplitude was way off. We used to have a name for our friends who got results that magically matched their (a priori) experimental data...frauds. Some of them just over-conditioned their models with the very data they were trying to model...how about that. That was the curse of having the data before the model.
As I said, I’m shocked people can actually get as close as they do to predicting anything real.