COVID-19

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Jason

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

steveo73 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:02 am
y China and those countries mentioned above need to have a look at themselves and re-think their policies in the future in relation to risk management of events like this.
China is a very difficult topic to discuss without appearing insensitive. But...Victor Davis Hanson described China's possession of a level 4 lab as synonymous to a five year old holding a firecracker. Why? Because at the end of the day they are a Communist government. We tend to forget that. To them policy is equivalent to propaganda. Best way to frame it - this is a new cold war. Except it will be worse, because unlike the former USSR, China has a shitload of money. We need to think in those terms when thinking about them. At this point, we are primarily concerned with how we dig out of this mess. But when it's over, defense against them will be the prism through which the US and the rest of the free world shape the relationship. Hanson actually brought up that Trump could campaign on his prescience in the matter as China was part of his 2016 platform.

DutchGirl
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Re: COVID-19

Post by DutchGirl »

I just want to post this here as well as in my own diary.

First results are in from the COVID-19 antibody tests at the Dutch blood bank.

Roughly 3% of blood donors who donated in the first week of April had already developed antibodies against the Coronavirus. While blood donors are not a complete accurate representation of the Dutch population since they are between ages 18 and ages 73 or so and generally healthy, it's one of the best estimates we've had so far; and blood donors aren't protected against getting this infection (they might be slightly biased towards not noticing the infection or having only mild symptoms).

The tests in the first week of April reflects infection status back around 5-15 March, given that it takes a couple of weeks to build up antibodies and given that people with any possible Corona-caused symptoms in the last two weeks weren't allowed to step into a blood bank, let alone donate.

On the one hand I thought that 3% was low. I had hoped for it to be higher, assuming that you also have immunity when you have antibodies. If that is the case, then you would hope to see a high percentage. Then again, herd immunity is definitely not a certainty with this specific disease, so maybe my hope was silly anyway.

On the other hand, 3% is quite high. It would be about 500,000 Dutch people, where by March 15 there had only been 1400 known infections in the Netherlands. So in that case, it would mean that the disease was only tested and found in roughly 1 in 350 patients. (Partially people who had symptoms but weren't tested because of test restrictions, likely also a lot of people who never had any recognizable symptoms).

So any numbers you have in a country with restricted numbers of testing - you could multiply those by a 100 or so and probably have a more accurate number of the people actually infected. It also very well explains why you "suddenly" see the disease pop up somewhere - in reality it has been there longer, but the first cases were asymptomatic or had too little symptoms to be recognized.

March 15 is also when the social distancing began in the Netherlands, so when tests will be run again half May we will see what effect these have had on the infection rate, at least until roughly the end of April. (Again, because the tests will only show infections that happened over 2 weeks ago).

sky
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »

Perhaps a good way to understand the impact of COVID-19 is to compare total deaths per 100,000 population for March and April 2020 to the averages of those months for previous years.

nomadscientist
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Re: COVID-19

Post by nomadscientist »

2,100 corona deaths in NL on 7th April

3% of population is 520,000 people

= 0.4% CFR

Maybe twice that, because some cases weren't yet resolved. Plausible.

This implies the US has had 5-10 million cases.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Denmark: IKEA reopens to long lines of customers. Some other big box stores choose to stay closed. People are still getting fined for loitering in select areas. There's talk about police overreach/inconsistencies, but woe to anyone who gets caught on camera doing something irresponsibly self-centered. They might end up getting lynched and dogpiled on facebook instead. One of the largest and oldest book retailers in the country declares bankruptcy due to not receiving economic assistance fast enough. This follows a couple of famous restaurants I've never heard about. Anti-waxxers are beginning to make their opinions heard.
Running total deaths: 7.4/100k (1 in 13513)

Sweden: Stockholm (the capital and the center of the outbreak) has run out of ECMO machines and are now sending critical patients to other hospital districts. Patients only get access if they're deemed to otherwise have less than 24 hrs to live without it. (The herd immunity strategy was initially based on never running out of capacity.) Parents are being told that they can't keep their kids out of school forever.
Running total deaths: 22.5/100k (1 in 4444)

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

Interesting comparison from Derek Thompson on Twitter (deaths sourced from worldometer):
Deaths per million: U.S. states vs. other countries

Hawaii (10) ≈ South Korea (5), or Greece (13)
Texas (23) = Israel (23)
D.C. (260) ≈ Sweden (212), or Netherlands (261)
Michigan (333) ≈ France (350)
Massachusetts (424) ≈ Italy (440)
New York (1,135) ≈ San Marino (1,208)
https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1254569181070217222

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

Jason wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:46 am
China is a very difficult topic to discuss without appearing insensitive. But...Victor Davis Hanson described China's possession of a level 4 lab as synonymous to a five year old holding a firecracker. Why? Because at the end of the day they are a Communist government. We tend to forget that. To them policy is equivalent to propaganda. Best way to frame it - this is a new cold war. Except it will be worse, because unlike the former USSR, China has a shitload of money.
In Australia the Chinese ambassador basically threatened us with trade sanctions because we said questions need to be asked about China's role in this pandemic. We also said that there needs to be a transparent investigation.

This is not going to be easy.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

Augustus wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:47 pm
They'll probably have full herd immunity at that point, or a few weeks after.
How do we judge this ? It'll be interesting how this develops. I think we need to compare total cases and total deaths per capita over the course of the next year or two until I assume we have this virus under control. I think we could also look at the economic impacts but I think that would be hard.

Then we can start stating well the way to handle a virus of this type is to do x, y and z. We will have some real data to use in these types of situations. We can actually test these ideas.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:19 pm
My quick estimate says even if USA COVID-19 deaths peak this week, don't be surprised when the death toll reaches 60,000 deaths next Monday and probably 100,000 deaths before end of May.
Yay, I was wrong! Still, USA has 56,144 deaths 8 days after having ~40,000 deaths and the IHME prediction is still only 59,600 deaths by May 1 when the weekly death rate is 14,220?!? Yes, weekly death rate is coming down, probably more like 7,000 if today is any indication, but... new cases has held steady at 200,000+ per week for three weeks now, since April 6.

Remember when the projection was only 60,000 deaths by August 1? IHME moved that up to 67,641 with 48,058 as the lower bound (passed several days ago!) and 123,157 as the upper bound.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

Augustus wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:36 pm
60-70% are the numbers I've read for herd immunity, R0 of 1 would give you herd immunity in 1 month. We'll find out in June when the data comes back from antibody testing.
I understand the theory but it's meaningless unless it translates into real benefits for society and this has to be reflected in the data. I think if we are looking at the problem now we can see that countries who utilized social distancing early and quickly have done the best in relation to number of deaths and cases. So herd immunity at this point is the best way to have the maximum negative impact on society.

There is an argument that you reach herd immunity and then it's all good but the data is definitely not backing this up now.

That is why we need to see how this develops over time. Will the lock downs remain the best approach to minimize the impact to society ? Will the countries/communities that implemented social distancing as quickly as possible remain the countries/communities that have managed this outbreak better. That may be the case but it might not be. We don't know.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Shelter in Place with Edward Snowden

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k5OAjnveyJo

War on Sensemaking: Pandemic & Conspiracy, Daniel Schmachtenberger

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=G70qtM66iY8

First the People, Rusty Guinn

https://www.epsilontheory.com/first-the-people/

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

MEA wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:59 pm
If you are referring to money from the government as a conspiracy, I think you might be looking at it the wrong way. Consider this:

A busy doctor needs to make a diagnosis. It could be a bad cold, it could be C19. She's not sure, it's 50%-50% in her mind, no C19 tests available. If she ticks the box for C19, the hospital gets a payment that's thousands of dollars larger. There's no harm to the patient. Also, the doctor has been blasted nonstop with Coronavirus news from all sides. Is there any motivation whatsoever not to tick the Coronavirus box?

I think it would be naive to assume that money and herd mentality and politics don't affect the statistics. Let's be honest, it's not blue states that are re-opening first.
Makes a lot of sense. Not even a conspiracy theory at all, more cause and effect among a chaotic world where certain choices are significantly more incentivised than others, leading to negative unintended consequences - which is how most negative things occur - rather than an actual conspiracy

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

@mea - I understand what you are stating but I don't think it matters. I trust the numbers in America more than I trust the numbers in China or Indonesia.

There has been a virus. It has killed people. It's been pretty horrific in certain communities.

DutchGirl
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Re: COVID-19

Post by DutchGirl »

Augustus wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:37 pm
The lockdowns aren't a realistic option long term, they never were. That's why more and more governments are opening up, in a few months the lock downs will be over for the most part. Iirc more than half the us is opening up next month.
Well... here in the Netherlands we're slowly opening up the country because our infection rate is dropping rapidly and it now seems safe to do so. And opening up means opening up the schools and perhaps some more of the public transport; not a full "do whatever you want", at least not yet.

Opening up may increase the infection numbers a bit again, and if they rise too quickly we'll lockdown a bit more again to prevent our healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

On the other hand, in some other countries that shan't be named, the lockdown is eased while the number of infections is still rising and while the healthcare system is still overwhelmed. That is going to end with a lot more morbidity and mortality that could have been avoided.

J_
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Re: COVID-19

Post by J_ »

I traveled April 25 by train from Austria where we have a second residence, via Germany to the north of the Netherlands where we have our main residence. In Austria you are only allowed to enter the train with a mask. The behavior in Austria (very strict virus regulating regime, very early responsive from the start of Covid, now a death rate of 60 persons pM) has resulted in a controlled outbreak, the virus started end of February.
At the moment not any public transport is allowed between Austria and Germany . So DW and I walked the 6 km between the last railway station in Austria and the first railway station in Germany.
On the border we were first halted by Austrian police and 30 m further on by German police. We were allowed to travel to our homeland and had to show our train travel ticket. {for non Europeans: since the European Union all border control (of the countries mentioned in the Schengen agreement) is stopped, so this is a very novel (emergency) thing}

In Germany ( a medium strict virus regulating regime, rather early reacting from the start of Covid, now a death rate of 70 persons pM) the mask is obliged starting Monday April 27. On Arpil25 hardly any one was wearing one (we did). The German railway officer to us that the fine will be €150 per next Monday if you are not wearing a mask. Even she was not wearing one. We had anticipated that it would be quiet in the trains and it was. Railway stations almost empty, every one seems to trust their own car more.

In the Netherlands ( a sloppy and late started virus regulating regime, a death rate at the moment of 261 persons pM) were hardly any people wearing masks. And they are still discussing if/why masks give protection.

So it was literary visible in these three countries, which are all about even in their start infection time, what a good and alert „governance” has an initial impact in saving lives.

So why was I leaving a „better regulated” country for a more „sloppy” one? I have wondered it myself.
I just went, as if I wanted to press against something unpressable. Being recalcitrant? Having no patience? Longing to my favorite summer sport: boating and rowing?

It slowly becomes clear to me that:

It can take a year or much longer before a vaccine is available for the world population of which I am only one.

The Case Fatality Rate hoovers between 0.4 to 1.2% as far I have read in more reliable papers and this forum.

The rate of infected people develops rather slow in countries like Germany, Austria and the Netherlands now those countries do social distancing, so it can take years before all of us, who stays alive, will have some resistance.

I know that I have a healthy body, use not a single medicine, and I am fit. I have spoken to friends who were infected and positive tested who are recovering well.

So I think I can survive if I will be infected with the virus without much trouble. I know that this is a gamble, but staying well and alive is always a gamble.

I plunge in life again, not blind and taking care for myself and others, but with pleasure and (almost) no fear.

1taskaday
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 1taskaday »

J_ you and Ego's posts are my road map for living and full and fulfilling life.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Sweden update: Death count revised up by +10% (as the numbers filter through).

Some more detail on the numbers which confirms other countries.
90% of the dead were >70yo, 50% were >86yo, and only 1% were <50yo.

Comorbidities:
79.6% hypertension
48.5% cardiovascular disease
29.0% diabetes
14.6% lung disease
14.4% none of the above

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

I think it's unfair to label hypertension a risk factor. Because almost everyone over the age of 70 who has seen a doctor has that diagnosis. It's like saying grey hair is a risk factor, or any other condition that correlates with old age.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3364500/
Data from the Framingham Heart Study, in men and women free of hypertension at 55 years of age indicate that the remaining lifetime risks for development of hypertension through 80 years are 93% and 91% respectively[6]. In other words, more than 90% of individuals who are free of hypertension at 55 years of age will develop it during their remaining lifespan.

sky
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »

@J

Did you have to carry a lot of baggage when you walked between Austria and Germany?

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Ego wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:26 pm
So well said. There must be a name for this.
The name is unidimensionally.
classical_Liberal wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:39 pm
This is why a technocracy run by scientists will never work. Deferring to expertise in an ultra-specialized society means the scope and scale of societal interventions are looked at unidimensionally (I think I just made up a cool new word).

Locked