COVID-19

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bostonimproper
Posts: 614
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bostonimproper »

Interesting NY Times article from NY ER doc. On covid-induced pneumonia:
And here is what really surprised us: These patients did not report any sensation of breathing problems, even though their chest X-rays showed diffuse pneumonia and their oxygen was below normal. How could this be?

We are just beginning to recognize that Covid pneumonia initially causes a form of oxygen deprivation we call “silent hypoxia” — “silent” because of its insidious, hard-to-detect nature.

Pneumonia is an infection of the lungs in which the air sacs fill with fluid or pus. Normally, patients develop chest discomfort, pain with breathing and other breathing problems. But when Covid pneumonia first strikes, patients don’t feel short of breath, even as their oxygen levels fall. And by the time they do, they have alarmingly low oxygen levels and moderate-to-severe pneumonia (as seen on chest X-rays). Normal oxygen saturation for most persons at sea level is 94 percent to 100 percent; Covid pneumonia patients I saw had oxygen saturations as low as 50 percent.

To my amazement, most patients I saw said they had been sick for a week or so with fever, cough, upset stomach and fatigue, but they only became short of breath the day they came to the hospital. Their pneumonia had clearly been going on for days, but by the time they felt they had to go to the hospital, they were often already in critical condition.

In emergency departments we insert breathing tubes in critically ill patients for a variety of reasons. In my 30 years of practice, however, most patients requiring emergency intubation are in shock, have altered mental status or are grunting to breathe. Patients requiring intubation because of acute hypoxia are often unconscious or using every muscle they can to take a breath. They are in extreme duress. Covid pneumonia cases are very different.

A vast majority of Covid pneumonia patients I met had remarkably low oxygen saturations at triage — seemingly incompatible with life — but they were using their cellphones as we put them on monitors. Although breathing fast, they had relatively minimal apparent distress, despite dangerously low oxygen levels and terrible pneumonia on chest X-rays.

We are only just beginning to understand why this is so. The coronavirus attacks lung cells that make surfactant. This substance helps keep the air sacs in the lungs stay open between breaths and is critical to normal lung function. As the inflammation from Covid pneumonia starts, it causes the air sacs to collapse, and oxygen levels fall. Yet the lungs initially remain “compliant,” not yet stiff or heavy with fluid. This means patients can still expel carbon dioxide — and without a buildup of carbon dioxide, patients do not feel short of breath.

Patients compensate for the low oxygen in their blood by breathing faster and deeper — and this happens without their realizing it. This silent hypoxia, and the patient’s physiological response to it, causes even more inflammation and more air sacs to collapse, and the pneumonia worsens until their oxygen levels plummet. In effect, the patient is injuring their own lungs by breathing harder and harder. Twenty percent of Covid pneumonia patients then go on to a second and deadlier phase of lung injury. Fluid builds up and the lungs become stiff, carbon dioxide rises, and patients develop acute respiratory failure.

By the time patients have noticeable trouble breathing and present to the hospital with dangerously low oxygen levels, many will ultimately require a ventilator.

Silent hypoxia progressing rapidly to respiratory failure explains cases of Covid-19 patients dying suddenly after not feeling short of breath. (It appears that most Covid-19 patients experience relatively mild symptoms and get over the illness in a week or two without treatment.)

Goes on to recommend pulse oximeters and talk about breathing exercises that can help early-stage Covid-19 patients from progressing into needing ventilator.

classical_Liberal
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Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Ego wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:25 pm
The meds that are being used today are the same meds we knew about six weeks ago. We shall see in a few weeks if something new comes from the trials.
My point is that using something that theoretically may work in someone dying, is far different than using it for someone who tests positive with mild symptoms to prevent them from progressing to near death. I think most providers have no problem with the former, but the later requires clinical trials. It's the later that will make the most difference in disease spread and outcomes. Knowing we can safely give "X" because it has been shown to prevent high risk patients from progressing to hospitalization stage hypoxia, is different than throwing anything and everything at a ventilated person who only has a 20% chance of survival. You must see the difference here?
Ego wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:25 pm
Starting a lockdown is easy. Ending a lockdown is near impossible. Mark my words.
I don't disagree here. I'm just making the argument that the lockdown has probably done some good from a medical standpoint. From a socio-political standpoint, the ease at which governments have forced private business closure and personal, let' call it isolation (vs self imprisonment), was... frightening. It sends chills down my spine when I think about it. Maybe another thread to discuss this issue in more detail would be appropriate.

Peanut
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Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2015 2:18 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Peanut »

This was fascinating. He did not shy away from making very specific predictions. My impression is he refrained from trashing the Imperial College paper out of good manners. My general theory is that most people in most fields are just not that good at whatever it is they do. Is this true of epidemiologists as well?

Also,
--You cannot stop it.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Yes, I see your point about throwing the kitchen sink at them. I agree that the time has produced some positives.
classical_Liberal wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:53 pm
I don't disagree here. I'm just making the argument that the lockdown has probably done some good from a medical standpoint. From a socio-political standpoint, the ease at which governments have forced private business closure and personal, let' call it isolation (vs self imprisonment), was... frightening. It sends chills down my spine when I think about it. Maybe another thread to discuss this issue in more detail would be appropriate.
Actually, I believe the reason we are here now is because we threw caution to the wind and pushed aside the economic issues, so I am hesitant to parse them from this discussion. I expect that by page 175-200 of this thread we will be primarily focused on the economic fallout. For instance, how do we move people from unemployment who are receiving 100% of their (previous) pay but their workplace no longer exists? Will the "stimulus" bills to continue those payments get passed? For how long? I can think of a hundred examples like that.

@peanut, +1. Everyone should watch that. It is unstoppable. New Zealand and Australia may be happy now. What happens around Christmas when it is everywhere else?
Last edited by Ego on Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Ego wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:25 pm
We make hard cost/benefit decisions all the time as well as preference based decisions. Driving is dangerous so it should be illegal?
Maybe 8-)

California car crashes decreased by over 50 percent [during lockdown], saving taxpayers $1B: report
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/calif ... -1b-report

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

Ego wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:25 pm
When Sweden has a low/no second wave and much lower economic damage I will point to them and say "see, it wouldn't have been that bad."
It hasn't happened yet. Sweden per capita are probably doing a little worse than the USA. What about Australia and New Zealand. Are they doomed ? Has their stricter approach worked the best ?

thrifty++
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Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

Ego wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:41 pm
@peanut, +1. Everyone should watch that. It is unstoppable. New Zealand and Australia may be happy now. What happens around Christmas when it is everywhere else?
I suspect NZ, Australia and the other islands in the pacific region will open up a mini economy later this year and open borders to eachother and leave borders shut otherwise. But I don't think that can hold for too long. ie one year from now I imagine borders will be opened up wider. But I hope like hell we have a vaccine by then.

Peanut
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Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2015 2:18 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Peanut »

And now Trump is signing an executive order to halt immigration to the U.S. This kind of Orban-esqe move is straight-up capitalizing on pandemic fears. Will the people even blink?

classical_Liberal
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Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Ego wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:41 pm
For instance, how do we move people from unemployment who are receiving 100% of their (previous) pay but their workplace no longer exists? Will the "stimulus" bills to continue those payments get passed? For how long? I can think of a hundred examples like that.
Well let's get started then :D

There have been clamorings that the US should be more like Western Europe in the social safety net sphere for quite some time. Since it's much easier to extend existing programs into perpetuity than it is to start from scratch. I predict that this evolution of the US to a more Western European model will progress from the emergency measures. Eventually, we will have to pay with Taxes over debt, so the sooner that switch is made, the more likely this will be successful over the longer term.

Another possibly @Augustus has brought up already. New Deal type employment to build a US infrastructure for the 21st Century. Things like renewable energy, high speed train transportation, city modifications using rideshares and bikes, etc. This, IMO, is a much better alternative. Pay the workers, then tax them. :D But the infrastructure building debt is more like leverage for future GDP, rather than paying a population to pacify them, hence has more future potential. This would also require the Feds to become more aggressive toward local and state municipalities to overcome all the local issues in such a national restructure. A period of federalism would have to be tolerated, this would likely require a really good federal leader, it's been awhile.

My last theory is the more capitalistic approach. Let the chips fall where they may. Provide large scale federal funding/loans for Main Street type businesses. I don't think another large corporate welfare check will be tolerated, but the main street funding may. Let the small business people try, fail or succeed based on merit. Hope that this infusion of funds improves the mainstreet economy and rebuilds tax base quick enough, before tax rates have to be raised significantly.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

Anyone hearing about the studies emerging in Cali (Stanford and maybe others) that, based on the presence of antibodies in random testing, supposedly suggest that the exposure rate has been 25X-80X the positive test result rate (meaning a denominator that's maybe almost two orders of magnitude too small has been used). Flawed methodology?

slowtraveler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

@iDave
I assumed it was common knowledge that the infection already reached a significant fraction of the population. For some reason, lots of deniers thinking this is the end of the world.

This started way back in November. It spread for most of the flu season undisturbed. It is about as deadly as flu for young people.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

slowtraveler wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:05 am
@iDave
I assumed it was common knowledge that the infection already reached a significant fraction of the population. For some reason, lots of deniers thinking this is the end of the world.

This started way back in November. It spread for most of the flu season undisturbed. It is about as deadly as flu for young people.
That's what I thought initially until observing that once testing got started for real, even among symptomatic (i.e., sick) people in my area, only 10-15% were positive for c19, which made me wonder how wide it had actually spread to date. The early Cali results, if correct, indicate it was considerably more widespread than thought, if I understood correctly.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

Peanut wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:56 pm
This was fascinating.
That was great. I'm not sure though if he (and Sweden) are that far behind (or in front of) the rest of the world. You still practice social distancing. It's just not as extreme. It's also based on an assessment that the virus isn't that bad but it's infection rate is high. Here is one thing though - he just has opinions at the moment. We need to revisit this over time and see how the situation develops.
Last edited by steveo73 on Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

bostonimproper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bostonimproper »

@iDave This thread is a good summary of the methodological issues of the Stanford study.

@slowtraveler The genomic analysis doesn't really support there having been a widespread introduction in November or December.

Peanut
Posts: 551
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2015 2:18 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Peanut »

steveo73 wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:48 am
That was great. I'm not sure though if he (and Sweden) are that far behind (or in front of) the rest of the world. You still practice social distancing. It's just not as extreme. It's also based on an assessment that the virus isn't that bad but it's infection rate is high. Here is one thing though - he just has opinions at the moment. We need to revisit this over time and see how the situation develops.
1) K-8 schools remaining open, and presumably HS and unis to follow, is a huge deal, admittedly maybe more so in my world than others', but still. Especially when compared to people suggesting things such as that colleges should move to online only for the foreseeable future.
2) Making compliance voluntary rather than legally mandated and punishable, is also a huge deal imo. The potential for extension of and abuse by central powers is real and happening.

Yes, he has his opinions, based on a lifetime of experience in the field. It struck me that he was willing to say way more than any other expert so far. I was also struck that he invited the interviewer to come back to him in a year and evaluate how accurate he was.

slowtraveler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

@BostonImproper

https://www.flightconnections.com/fligh ... -wuhan-wuh

There's direct flights from Wuhan to Europe, America, Australia, and obviously, all of Asia. March was when travel bans started getting more serious. Even in March, I was able to catch an economy flight from Asia across the world with a partner who has a low strength passport. The conclusion is obvious, no matter what anybody on Twitter says.

Being as contagious as we believe it to be, occuring during both the calendar and Chinese New Year, spreading during the world's largest banquet well before any travel bans meant that huge amounts of people were infected and travelled worldwide. Maybe the real infected count didn't spike hard until January, that's still months of undisturbed spread.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Denmark: All schools 0-5 grade now open (with 2m between desks using the 6-10th grade class rooms for the extra spacing). Also senior high school (2m rule as well) who would be graduating/taking their final exams about ~1 month from now. Non-contact outdoor sports reopen. (Think golf, tennis, mountain bike bog snorkeling, ...) The stock market has recovered to where it was mid January 2020. New testing policies have been made official and the "mystery tents" are getting ready to open for business. The goal is to test 40,000 people per day (that's almost 1% of the population!) prioritizing anyone admitted to the hospital (no matter the cause) or going to the doctor or dentist, anyone with influenza like symptoms, everybody in senior facilities, and anyone who works there. Beyond that there will eventually be routine testing of medical workers and anyone who has come into contact with confirmed cases.

Total death toll so far: 6.4/100k (1 in 15625)

Jason

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

If this pandemic has demonstrated anything, the concept of infrastructure has been re-defined and is moving towards silicone valley. It's not bridges, roads, etc. especially when oil has tanked (pun intended) and employers will most likely retain the "work at home" model at least in partial form. Unfortunately, this shift to infrastructure as including and possibly centering on technology will only exacerbate the class divide due to who is necessary/qualified for infrastructure improvement. I follow WORK because I own it and it has increased during this time due to work conditions that are not temporary and will most likely re-define the economy. Their growth is both private and public, meaning local, state and federal government agencies are also (finally) adapting in this manner. Bottom line, we are moving permanently towards less cars and more bandwidth and that is not good for putting the working class unemployed back to work. When people think safety and security now, their first thought is protecting themselves against a Russian teenager popping up on their Zoom video conference call with a finger lodged up his asshole, not filling in a pothole in the middle of a street. Even stuff that needs to be built self-driving cars, renewable energy - programmers, analysts, and robots. I also believe that there will be migration from urban areas where much of the bridges/tunnel requirements are most in need. I live on the East Coast. Manhattan has lost its luster to the point that I doubt Donald Trump will return to his golden tower in 2024 if term limits are still in place.

slowtraveler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

jacob wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:19 am
The stock market has recovered to where it was mid January 2020.
Where are you seeing this?

VTI (Vanguard US Stock Market Index) is down 17.02% from the top.

15 January: 166.91
Today: 138.64
-17.02%

S&P 500 Index is down to 2781 from 3289, so 15.4% down.

Do you mean 2019?

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

I believe jacob was referring to Denmark (OMX Copenhagen 20 is around mid-Jan levels and above late Dec levels).

edit: bigato beat me to it

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