If this pandemic goes to 2021, are forumites planning to self isolate for an entire year or more?
Being retired, it's a no-brainer to do so. Wife & I need to figure out a plan for visiting her dad, but that's about the only difficulty. I miss autocross and will attend some that have planned for the events to maintain social distance (pre-registered online, drivers meeting online, annual tech approved, no passengers, etc.). My garden will be looking pretty good this year .
Exactly. These people showed symptoms, were hospitalized, recovered, were tested for antibodies and showed none. The innate immune system which is our first line of defense does not produce antibodies.
As slightly above layperson on this topic, I'm still very cautious about reading too much into these types of reports and studies.
Is that condescension I detect there?
Anyway. Those who are far above layperson have come out with their opinions. Most are not saying it as explicitly as this guy because they need to keep the illusion of a potential solution before the vaccination in 18 months, which itself has serious problems. But hey, I'm just a layperson, so what do I know?
I imagine most people here don't find the lockdown that challenging (yet) as we're mostly introverted, able to WFH and have a stash as a backup.
In the meantime, others are finding it a tad more difficult:
The research, conducted by King's College London and pollsters Ipsos Mori, finds 15% of the population already say they are finding the restrictions very challenging and another 14% expect they will be unable to cope within the next month.
Half of those surveyed (49%) said they had felt more anxious and depressed than normal. Over a third (38%) said they were having trouble sleeping and more than a fifth of people (22%) said they were already facing significant money problems or were almost certain to do so in the near future.
Among workers, 16% said they had either already lost their job or were very likely to do so in the near future.
Younger people appear to be struggling to cope with the restrictions more than older people. Among 16-24-year-olds, a quarter (24%) said they were finding it extremely difficult to cope with the lockdown. Only 11% of those aged 45 to 75 said they were struggling.
The emotional challenges of being cooped up behind closed doors are revealed in the survey. A fifth of people (19%) said they had argued more with people in their home and a similar proportion said they were drinking more alcohol that normal. A third said they were eating more food or less healthily than previously.
@Augustus -- I don't think you'll see herd immunity in 7 months. It won't happen without a vaccine or an overwhelming wave of infections, which would make herd immunity moot. This article talks about why it won't save us.
I can't speak for c_l's intentions but I read it as him humbly presenting his medical background to preface his comments, not as an attack against anyone.
The GDP argument assumes that business functions as normal if there weren't government mandates for shutdowns. Yet isn't it evident elsewhere that individuals aren't willing to compromise themselves after gaining knowledge of the virus and how it spreads? Look at what's occurring in Wuhan. They emerged from lockdown and business traffic has hardly spiked. They had to reclose 500 movie theaters across the province after they only collected a few thousand in revenue. I don't anticipate people just jumping back up and carrying on with their lives and spending as before once the restrictions are lifted.
An overly simply estimate of the hammer and the dance routine.
Virgin R0 = 2.5 => Herd immunity = 60%.
327M Americans.
US ICU capacity 95000, mostly fully used.
Chance of needing ICU ~2.5%
Time spent in ICU ~ 7 days.
Time to keep everybody under the line using a perfect uniform distribution. That is the lockdown is lifted in a way so people get sick on a perfect schedule to maximize but not overshoot available treatment space:
327M*0.6*0.025*7d/95000 = 361 days.
That's presuming these ICUs are not used for other things like traffic accidents, etc. which of course they are. Also assumes the number of units stay constant whereas in reality, it's expanding (no idea how fast?!). Of course neither assumption is true ... so the 361 days is just the ball park lower limit of the time needed w/o access to a vaccine. Since the vaccine is still 12-18 months away, it means the two methods are competing. The third option is an actual treatment. With so many different attempts out there, I don't know how promising those are.
Even during the great plague of 1665 in London starvation was not an issue. Then, as now, the governmental bodies demanded and ensured the continued operation of the chains of food distribution and production. In fact, the penny wheaten loaf only decreased in size from 10 ounces and 1/2 to 9 ounces and 1/2 at the height of contagion.
Also, modern agricultural production/price is much more sensitive to energy input costs, so the fact that all the cars and other machines are not “eating” petroleum tends towards food prices decreasing. Generally, the food production system has for many decades been protected as an issue of national security, so prices are not reflective of anything remotely like unto free market reality. Greatly extending the provisions of the SNAP/food stamp program would be a simple matter and will certainly happen if true financial food insecurity results.
Also, recent survey reveals that majority of Americans will spend “stimulus” check on groceries rather than “bills.” IOW, it would be my expectation that de facto debt jubilee will occur prior to starvation or even week without hamburger/pizza.
The US is pretty close to peak (IHME has peak at April 11th), so the curve should appear flattish. A confirmed peak would indicate that whatever social distancing people engaged in ~2 weeks ago was good enough.
What will be interesting now is whether reality will follow the Gaussian or whether people, thinking the worst is over, will reduce compliance. From what I can see out my window, it looks like the latter (naughty neighbors!). This would extend the peak somewhat or even cause the curve to bend up again.
The government will ensure that food and utilities remain available and people simply won’t pay their mortgages or rent. For instance, the City of Detroit is turning back on water supply for all residents who were previously turned off due to not paying bill.
That said, I do believe that extroversion and ambition will cause many/most people to take risks well before anything resembling starvation ensues. Luckily, it will primarily be the young adults who are at least risk who will be most likely to break “curfew.”
It doesn’t make sense mathematically. See one of my previous posts.
I should note that I have no objection to anybody who thinks the virus isn’t a big deal volunteering as aide at hospital or delivering groceries for primo tips. I am not terribly worried about the fact that my 31 year old son is still working. I just believe that those who wish to avoid the risk should be offered some reasonable alternative.
Interesting read but it looks like a conspiracy theory to me so no wonder it's been hammered.
The premise is that COVID was already spreading in the West in late 2019 but... no one noticed?
It doesn't match:
* official death statistics
* exponential growth of the virus
* assumes that either there were no young people critically ill or no hospital ever thought of testing them
* it assumes a vast population of asymptomatic carriers which hasn't been confirmed anywhere yet via testing
Occam's razor suggests higher than a year before flu season is more likely than a virus spreading unnoticed for 2 months. Also, I'd rather go with a consensus of epidemiologists than an opinion of a writer (with support of a Ph.D. from the unrelated field).
@Ego: Interesting article. I fell sick the first week of March with what I assumed was flu but have been wondering ever since if it was the coronavirus. My son who also got sick had the typical symptoms but I did not have coughing or very high fevers. The bodyaches were the most intense I've ever experienced though. Anway, I think the most important part of it is the author's own experienced difficulty with getting 'non-essential' medical care. I heard a story on NPR about a cancer patient who had her surgery canceled, and only reinstated after her doctor went to bat for her and made demands. I'm sure there are many patients in similar boats and it seems immoral to neglect their care and de-prioritize them in places that are not hotspots.
I wrote a response to the article, but others beat me to it. I think most people believe we are underestimating the amount of cases by missing a lot of asymptomatic people. The quantity is unknown though and must be treated as such. The cost of assuming the virus has been here since last year and being wrong would be massive. In general, I don't buy any theory that fails to mention the dire situation that happened in Italy. It's like if I were making economic predictions ignoring the unemployment numbers. Neither hospital overrun or unemployment numbers are based on guessing and elaborate modeling, both already happened.
What needs to be addressed for any scenario is 1) likely deaths; 2) likely economic cost; 3) massive uncertainty and how it's being handled in your model. I have yet to see any modeler or internet essay philosopher address all 3.
I thought the hammer and dance article Jacob posted was very well done, but it follows the narrative that I think is most likely and still fails to address the uncertainty we face as well as the economic cost. The author does briefly discuss some economic impacts (mostly just saying things to support his narrative) but it's certainly not the in depth treatment he gives to estimating deaths (he estimates the U.S. "do nothing" scenario as ~10 million deaths, which I think is a more likely "worst case" scenario than the 2.2 million deaths being thrown around previously).
@Ego - No I didn't read it before I responded. It failed to load at first, so I figured the link was borked. Tried again and have now read it. Nothing there causes me to shift my position that these alternative (asymptomatic or time-shifted) theories do not explain why so many people are dying right now (and not 60-90 days ago, say) and why so many of the tests (that still require flu like symptoms in order to be tested) come back negative.
I'm very committed to the law of parsimony. Such theories either need to invoke the additional assumption that PCR tests have a substantial number of false positives and/or declare the existence of a third type of short-lived and geographically limited disease that has suddenly started killing people in March and April way above the background noise level. These are both complicating assumptions. It's easier to just presume that what we see is actually what we think we see even if it is very tough to keep the economy locked down.
I fully realize that this debate is mostly an ideological one ("people stand where they sit"... essentially arguing personal wallets or personal risk/temperament) regardless of whether it's framed in lives or money or lives lost because of money lost or money lost because of lives lost or something else. For example, if I had a tooth ache right now, I bet I'd be more inclined to supporting opening up non-essential dental services. I'm not super-interested in those [value] debates because I'm not the King making the decisions. I also don't think the debate is going to change the minds of those making the decisions. Individually people can follow whatever guidelines/models they want. If the belief is that the risk is low because everybody is asymptomatic, it's easy to get first in line in terms of going back out into the world. Use social media to find those who think the threat is exaggerated and hang out with them. Ditto if the belief is that some things are more important than getting infected, like going to church. Some do that too. If it was possible to sign an affidavit to not receive CV19 treatment in exchange for a free pass to go out in public, I'd be all for it. If the belief is that the threat is not exaggerated it's also possible to self-isolate. At least on this forum it's easy to stay at home and spend down the stash a bit. For the rest of the world, there are various bailout packages to ensure that nobody is even close to starving. Employment wise, critical operations are very much hiring! Anyone who has been sent home from work over what they think is an imaginary disease should have a very easy time finding work in essential businesses right now.
This epidemic is rather karmic as it allows people to make individual choices with consequences being awarded on a rather individual basis as well. This is actually rather rare in terms of human predicaments. Overall, I don't care that greatly what individuals do---because there's not much I can do about it anyway---live and let die, I say. I, for one, am going to presume that the pandemic is real and stay isolated.
I think the main point being missed in the discussion of economic costs is that this was a known risk in general terms which the free market did not adequately address. From “Viruses: A Very Short Introduction” Second Edition 2018.
As the emergence and reemergence of viruses is increasing, vaccines to protect both humans and domestic animals and to prevent virus spread are urgently needed. So far this need has been ignored by vaccine manufacturers due to concerns about commercial viability.
Thus, we find ourselves in the position of a patient suffering end stage outcome of lifestyle disease and forced to choose between very costly procedure or loss of life.
I apologise if this link has been posted already, this thread is a little difficult to keep up with.
Here are some explanations why the death rate in Germany is so low. In rural Bavaria however we do not notice much testing going on. My brother and I had prolonged direct contact with a proven positive person and did not get tested, even though I showed some mild symptoms. Other people say the same thing. Bavaria is one of the German hot-spots, probably due to being closest to Austria and Italy.
We have two larger hospitals in our area, one of them has been appointed as a "Corona clinic", while the other one takes all other cases. It was in the news yesterday that at the corona facility 20 doctors and nurses are infected and that they start to get overwhelmed in regards to ICU capacity. So it is not all roses and sunshine after all in Germany...
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