COVID-19

[fiby41]

Re, let the immune reopen economy, 51 survivors in SK test positive after being discharged for testing negative.
Not wearing a mask now an arrestable offense in my city.

[1taskaday]

My sister's stepson's stepdad died of Covid 19 in New York city yesterday.

He was 55 yrs,no underlying conditions except a stressful job in finance that he hated.

It was his birthday yesterday the day that he died.
Looks like he caught it from his 94 year old mom who died just a week before him.

Seemingly he had pneumonia for a week before he died and left it too late...when he finally went to hospital they put him on a respirator for a day and then he died.

Why he didn't go to the hospital earlier is so weird..are people in New York delaying going to hospitals even if really sick???

My sister didn't really know him but said that it was very sad as he was hoping to move to Carolina to a less stressful life.

He was just one of the 731 who died in New York of Covid 19 yesterday.

[Bankai]

Why he didn't go to the hospital earlier is so weird..are people in New York delaying going to hospitals even if really sick???

It's not just the US. There's a podcast from an NHS doctor working in one of London's hospitals that my wife listens to. He said that people now come to the hospital late with everything, i.e. people who broke something or had hearth attack/stroke leave it for hours/until the next day hoping they get better because they don't want to overwhelm the HNS. Obviously they are in way worse shape when they finally show up in the hospital. Another unintended consequence.

[Saltation]

Our hospitals are not yet over capacity in our region but I had to go to the hospital yesterday. 31 years old, non smoker, regular exerciser (2000+ miles on bike each year, plus free weight exercising 3 times a week) but a hereditary high blood pressure issue (treated). I was splitting wood yesterday and I developed harsh acid reflux, stomach churned, cold chill came over my entire body and was a little faint of breath. Went inside and took my blood pressure: 188/96 (this is with a medication after resting). Needless to say given the variety of symptoms I went to the ER because urgent care will not accept me as a patient with these symptoms. At the hospital I was tested at 190/100. I was in the ER for 3 hours and multiple EKG's and blood samples later determined everything is fine. Doctor chalked it up to a potential viral condition that ran it's course quickly. It took more than two hours at the ER for my blood pressure to go below 150/80. I did not want to go to the hospital because I do not want to potentially be around this virus and if the elderly or someone else need services we don't want to be filling up beds.

If someone like myself were to catch COVID-19 I personally think I would be fine but so do most of us. However the intention of this post is to remind everyone to stay home or if you go outside stay away from people. The research coming out indicates that there is a very low death rate for people in my age group but not for my underlying medical condition. Spreading this around can have serious implications for those of us that are working to maintain our health but complicated situations.

[CS]

@1taskaday
Sorry to hear about your sister's stepdad. That is horrible.

@fiby41
Yes, China found a good amount had low or no detectable antibodies after getting over it, which leaves the question of 1. what immune process helped them and 2. can they get it again.

@thrifty++
Hawaii is shipping back people who don't have a provable quarantine location. They are warning people to not even come because they won't make it out of the airport. These are US citizens but from other states, so I don't know how that would translate to returning NZ residents. Some people just won't take precautions. It sounds like jail and/or fines are the only way to deal with them. There will always be some... sigh.

[jacob]

https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english ... india-drop

[Will]

https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english ... india-drop

Wow! Maybe some very positive things can result from this virus much quicker than expected: a feeling of empowerment that we can truly tackle the world's climate and pollution crisis if we want to. Reading this makes me hopeful for the future.

[jennypenny]

Some of the pics from around the globe are shocking (shockingly good). I wish people would make an effort to keep things this way but they won't, not unless a lot of people die or we're stuck inside for several more months.

[Bankai]

IIRC teams in Europe found antibody tests from some manufacturers in China to be accurate only 30% of the time. Antibody tests for covid don't seem to be mature yet.

At least some of them were tested in a lab and not by 'at home' anti-body test as the ones the UK found not working:

Huang said 10 of the patients in the study had an antibody presence so low it could not even be detected in the laboratory.

These patients experienced typical Covid-19 symptoms including fever, chill and a cough, but might have beaten back the virus with other parts of the immune system such as T-cells or cytokines.

How they did this was still unclear.

[Ego]

At least some of them were tested in a lab and not by 'at home' anti-body test as the ones the UK found not working:

Exactly. These people showed symptoms, were hospitalized, recovered, were tested for antibodies and showed none. The innate immune system which is our first line of defense does not produce antibodies.

So, if this is happening with a statistically significant number of symptomatic patients, imagine how many people who were asymptomatic have simply fought it off with no engagement of their adaptive immune system and no antibodies produced.

Why is this important? Because it means that the antibody blood tests that everyone is demanding will be useless.

[J_]

International aid: 52 Dutch covid patients are flown to Germany for treatment in a hospital there.

[Fish]

I have been reading David Collum’s twitter feed since I didn’t want to wait until December to get his take on Covid-19. Lots of “I told you so” on stock buybacks, outrage over stimulus, and concern for loss of civil liberties in the long run.

Anyway, he is not feeling well and just got tested for C-19. Get well soon Dave. https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidBCollum ... 9235206145

[flying_pan]

Took a drive for our cars (they were just sitting in a driveway for a month) to bring to working temperature, were driving with circulate air on (one benefit of having a station wagon, I guess – a lot of air inside). I live on the Oregon coast, saw TONS of cars on the highway. A lot of road construction, but the city center (there all the shopping happening) is pretty much closed. Still, some people were hanging out there, drinking coffee, etc. Not much, but some. All parks/recreation areas are closed with parking lots fenced, which is good!

I expected much more people walking/running around neigbourhoods, saw only 2 couples. On the other hand, this is rural USA, not a suburbia

[Ego]

A call to honesty in pandemic modeling

https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-h ... 156686a64b

[jennypenny]

They're trying to buy the medical community time to come up with a solution. I don't know why they just don't say that instead of the weird focus on ICU bed counts. It's similar to them telling people 'masks don't work' because they didn't have enough and then changing their tune and now telling everyone to wear a mask.

I'm not saying they're wrong to buy time any way they can, but the bullshitting is going to catch up to them. If they leveled with people, most would comply. Once people start to think they are being lied to, people will stop listening and it could make people even less trusting of health professionals than they were before the crisis.

I assume once there's a vaccine they'll want everyone to take it, but if people feel they've been misled multiple times during the pandemic they might be hesitant to believe claims that a vaccine is safe and effective.

[jacob]

Maybe I've just stared at figures and models for long enough, but to me it was kinda obvious that the current models only cover the first wave

The actual strategy to be followed has been called "the hammer and the dance" which used by most countries except Sweden and those who got it under control early. This means that the gates won't open on 5/1 or 6/30 whenever the date in the current model is. Instead they will start opening selectively, perhaps letting the strong (the kids) out first to increase population immunity and in turn decreasing R0, slowly allowing for more and more and so on.

However, to make a model like this and actually understand what's going on with the results, parsimony demands that the modeller doesn't make up an intricate (but more realistic) model of tapping the brakes, since the modeller doesn't know who will go first at this point. Adding that many details to the input will confound the interpretation of the output.

What the simple models show is how many people/ICU/beds/deaths there will be in wave one. Once that is passed by the end of this month/mid next month and politicians start talking about EXACTLY what they'll open up, the modellers will run their models again with the new parameters to compute how many will die in the second wave, and so on.

This tails into the official strategy of keeping the curve under the line. It's computationally impossible to calculate the entire run, so it's being split up in waves. We've already been informed that the entire wave train will last until mid 2021ish.

[George the original one]

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Tue, Apr 7
- 1132 Positives
- 20669 Negatives
- 33 Deaths

Cases by County
- 21 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 97 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 5 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 8 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 2 Curry (Gold Beach)
- 44 Deschutes (Bend)
- 12 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Hood River (Hood River)
- 39 Jackson (Medford)
- 16 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 19 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 30 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 45 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Malheur (Vale)
- 215 Marion (Salem)
- 2 Morrow (Heppner)
- 258 Multnomah (Portland)
- 28 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Sherman (Moro)
- 3 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 8 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 3 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 282 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 25 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 24 19 or younger
- 124 20-29
- 179 30-39
- 224 40-49
- 214 50-59
- 213 60- 69
- 123 70-79
- 80 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 4 19 or younger
- 14 20-29
- 23 30-39
- 51 40-49
- 55 50-59
- 86 60- 69
- 58 70-79
- 38 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 329 Yes
- 756 No
- 96 Not provided

Sex
- 634 Female
- 541 Male
- 6 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 303 Available adult ICU beds
- 2130 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 108 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 192 Available pediatric beds
- 816 Available ventilators
- 464 COVID-19 admissions
- 69 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

107 new cases. A month ago, there were only 14 cases reported in the entire state.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Wed, Apr 8
- 1239 Positives
- 23325 Negatives
- 38 Deaths

Cases by County
- 21 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 103 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 5 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 9 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 2 Curry (Gold Beach)
- 45 Deschutes (Bend)
- 12 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 3 Hood River (Hood River)
- 40 Jackson (Medford)
- 16 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 19 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 31 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 46 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Malheur (Vale)
- 218 Marion (Salem)
- 3 Morrow (Heppner)
- 286 Multnomah (Portland)
- 28 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Sherman (Moro)
- 3 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 8 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 3 Union (La Grande)
- 2 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 295 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 25 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 26 19 or younger
- 133 20-29
- 186 30-39
- 233 40-49
- 226 50-59
- 223 60- 69
- 129 70-79
- 83 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 5 19 or younger
- 16 20-29
- 20 30-39
- 48 40-49
- 55 50-59
- 84 60- 69
- 55 70-79
- 41 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 324 Yes
- 812 No
- 103 Not provided

Sex
- 664 Female
- 570 Male
- 6 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 302 Available adult ICU beds
- 2175 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 92 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 192 Available pediatric beds
- 785 Available ventilators
- 440 COVID-19 admissions
- 125 COVID-19 patients in ICU beds
- 67 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

[George the original one]

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Mon 6 Apr
- 8682 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 394 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 29 Adams (Ritzville)
- 4 Asotin (Asotin)
- 179 Benton (Prosser)
- 32 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 8 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 161 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 20 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 10 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 75 Franklin (Pasco)
- 90 Grant (Ephrata)
- 6 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 143 Island (Coupeville)
- 27 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 3460 King (Seattle)
- 118 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 13 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 11 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 16 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 17 Mason (Shelton)
- 10 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 644 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 11 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 165 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 2 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1596 Snohomish (Everett)
- 209 Spokane (Spokane)
- 5 Stevens (Colville)
- 74 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 15 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 222 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 12 Whitman (Colfax)
- 377 Yakima (Yakima)
- 915 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 1% 20-39
- 7% 40-59
- 39% 60-79
- 53% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown

415 new cases. A month ago, there were only 136 cases reported in the entire state.

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Tue 7 Apr
- 9097 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 421 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 30 Adams (Ritzville)
- 4 Asotin (Asotin)
- 190 Benton (Prosser)
- 35 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 10 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 186 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 20 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 12 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 76 Franklin (Pasco)
- 95 Grant (Ephrata)
- 7 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 149 Island (Coupeville)
- 27 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 3668 King (Seattle)
- 117 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 15 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 11 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 17 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 17 Mason (Shelton)
- 12 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 759 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 12 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 169 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 2 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1651 Snohomish (Everett)
- 220 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Stevens (Colville)
- 77 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 17 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 236 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 12 Whitman (Colfax)
- 394 Yakima (Yakima)
- 838 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 0% 20-39
- 7% 40-59
- 39% 60-79
- 53% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown

[thrifty++]

Far out the curve really is flattening here now.

Only 29 new cases in NZ bringing the total confirmed and probable to 1,239.

Still only 1 death and 4 people in intensive care.

Bringing the death rate to 0.08%. And serious plus death rate to 0.48%

317 have recovered.

51,165 tests done (1.07% of population)

I wonder if NZ figures will be the litmus test of how deadly the virus really is.

Finally quarantine for all NZers entering the border kicks in at midnight tonight. No one goes home. Everyone goes into a managed facility for a minimum of 14 days. The is also no end date for these border controls so they could go on for a very long time.

With this significant drop and now the quarantine I am feeling more confident that this is under control in NZ.

The decision of whether to move out of the lockdown, from level 4 to level 3 alert will happen on 20 April. Im hoping we extend it for another two weeks after the 4 weeks is over though to be honest. Level 3 alert will still have a lot of restrictions at least in any event.

[Ego]

In other news...

The FDA-approved Drug Ivermectin inhibits the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4220302011

The jury is still way out on this one. It is another one of those meds that was approved for something else but had surprise antiviral properties and has a veterinary version. It protects dogs from heartworm and there is a version on ebay for horses. I know how much you guys enjoy that kind of stuff. For those with horses.