COVID-19

[Bankai]

@Augustus: we are going for a (long) walk most days. Parks are quite busy but I reckon the risk of catching the virus just by walking the same path as someone ill is tiny in the first place and when multiplied by an also very low risk of dying from it makes it very low-risk activity. So we go for health but mainly mental benefits.

@Ego: interesting, wish it was open to non-scientists so I could have a poke. If it's been released on the 27th March, I'd expect some very detailed analysis published by now, wonder if there are more bureaucratic hurdles on the way.

[bryan]

@Augustus, If I'm walking past someone, I'll usually hold my breath for a while.

[Bankai]

If I'm walking past someone, I'll usually hold my breath for a while.

I'm doing that as well. I also always hold my breath while walking on the pavement when a bus or a truck passes me. It just seems like a natural thing to do - why would I want to inhale all this crap.

[chenda]

I'm walking, maintaining 2 metres separation minima from other pedestrians. Most people do the same and are accommodating, except for some twat of a bicyclist the other day who deliberately cycled right by me swearing because I was off the pavement avoiding other pedestrians. Like it was a wide empty road he could easily have cycled around me. Next time I'm bringing a cattle prod and will shock him in his balls...

[Dream of Freedom]

Tigers in the Bronx zoo are getting covid now. I guess I'll have to stay 6 feet away from them now too, oh darn.

[jacob]

Indeed! A few reports of cats and dogs getting infected around the world. Doesn't appear to be a strong vector.
https://www.avma.org/resources-tools/an ... e/covid-19

[chenda]

Yes avoid dogs too.

[classical_Liberal]

Apologies as I'm very late to this thread; but is the thinking that this coronavirus was first identified in China in December still widely accepted by the epidemiologists, et al.?

I was actually thinking about your story from your journal soon after all this began to break! I almost asked you what you thought. Short answer is identified, yes, was it circulating before, not sure. I also had what I thought was the flu back in early January (obviously nothing as severe as you), but eerily similar symptoms to COVID. I have several neighbors from China and SK who have family visiting regularly (prior to all this), so I've had my suspicions. Until we have serological tests, there's just no way to know for sure.

[steveo73]

Are forumites taking walks?

We always go walking but there are a lot more people doing the same thing now.

[slsdly]

While I would normally be out walking, running, and cycling at this time of year, I've opted to use my rowing machine, yoga, group exercise classes over video conferencing. The trails and parks are slowly closing as the city becomes frustrated with the minority which aren't social distancing properly. If I did go out, it would be just after sunrise to minimize my chances of seeing others.

[George the original one]

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Mon, Apr 6
- 1132 Positives
- 20669 Negatives
- 29 Deaths

Cases by County
- 21 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 90 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 4 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 8 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 2 Curry (Gold Beach)
- 40 Deschutes (Bend)
- 12 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Hood River (Hood River)
- 39 Jackson (Medford)
- 16 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 18 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 29 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 44 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Malheur (Vale)
- 209 Marion (Salem)
- 2 Morrow (Heppner)
- 243 Multnomah (Portland)
- 26 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Sherman (Moro)
- 3 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 8 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 3 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 271 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 25 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 23 19 or younger
- 115 20-29
- 170 30-39
- 211 40-49
- 209 50-59
- 206 60- 69
- 121 70-79
- 76 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 2 19 or younger
- 26 20-29
- 41 30-39
- 70 40-49
- 68 50-59
- 100 60- 69
- 59 70-79
- 38 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 404 Yes
- 623 No
- 104 Not provided

Sex
- 605 Female
- 518 Male
- 9 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 297 Available adult ICU beds
- 2241 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 113 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 187 Available pediatric beds
- 733 Available ventilators
- 400 COVID-19 admissions
- 82 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

49 new cases. Hospitalized case numbers changed radically without explanation.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Tue, Apr 7
- 1132 Positives
- 20669 Negatives
- 33 Deaths

Cases by County
- 21 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 97 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 5 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 8 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 2 Curry (Gold Beach)
- 44 Deschutes (Bend)
- 12 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Hood River (Hood River)
- 39 Jackson (Medford)
- 16 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 19 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 30 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 45 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Malheur (Vale)
- 215 Marion (Salem)
- 2 Morrow (Heppner)
- 258 Multnomah (Portland)
- 28 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Sherman (Moro)
- 3 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 8 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 3 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 282 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 25 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 24 19 or younger
- 124 20-29
- 179 30-39
- 224 40-49
- 214 50-59
- 213 60- 69
- 123 70-79
- 80 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 4 19 or younger
- 14 20-29
- 23 30-39
- 51 40-49
- 55 50-59
- 86 60- 69
- 58 70-79
- 38 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 329 Yes
- 756 No
- 96 Not provided

Sex
- 634 Female
- 541 Male
- 6 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 303 Available adult ICU beds
- 2130 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 108 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 192 Available pediatric beds
- 816 Available ventilators
- 464 COVID-19 admissions
- 69 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

[George the original one]

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Sun 5 Apr
- 8384 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 372 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 26 Adams (Ritzville)
- 4 Asotin (Asotin)
- 172 Benton (Prosser)
- 29 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 8 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 154 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 17 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 10 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 64 Franklin (Pasco)
- 85 Grant (Ephrata)
- 6 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 133 Island (Coupeville)
- 25 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 3295 King (Seattle)
- 108 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 12 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 10 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 16 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 15 Mason (Shelton)
- 9 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 590 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 9 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 162 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 2 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1522 Snohomish (Everett)
- 203 Spokane (Spokane)
- 5 Stevens (Colville)
- 66 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 14 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 183 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 12 Whitman (Colfax)
- 346 Yakima (Yakima)
- 1066 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 1% 20-39
- 7% 40-59
- 39% 60-79
- 54% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 6% Unknown

298 new cases.

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Mon 6 Apr
- 8682 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 394 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 29 Adams (Ritzville)
- 4 Asotin (Asotin)
- 179 Benton (Prosser)
- 32 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 8 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 161 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 20 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 10 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 75 Franklin (Pasco)
- 90 Grant (Ephrata)
- 6 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 143 Island (Coupeville)
- 27 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 3460 King (Seattle)
- 118 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 13 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 11 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 16 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 17 Mason (Shelton)
- 10 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 644 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 11 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 165 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 2 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1596 Snohomish (Everett)
- 209 Spokane (Spokane)
- 5 Stevens (Colville)
- 74 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 15 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 222 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 12 Whitman (Colfax)
- 377 Yakima (Yakima)
- 915 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 1% 20-39
- 7% 40-59
- 39% 60-79
- 53% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown

[Ego]

Out of 2000 ICU patients in France, 83% are overweight.

https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/ ... _3244.html

[Ego]

COVID-19 is commonly complicated with coagulopathy and severe inflammation

https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 20-02105-8

Heparin is both an anticoagulant and anti-inflammatory. It seems to be working on both fronts with serious cases.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32220112
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20046144v1

[thrifty++]

50 new cases in NZ today (half of them are only probable) so total confirmed and probable cases is 1210.

2 people in critical condition.

4098 tests yesterday, bringing the total to 46,875 (0.98% of population).

Still only 1 death.

Such a low death rate compared to most places (0.08%). And a serious plus death rate of 0.25%. It makes me wonder if all the high death rates elsewhere is purely due to insufficient recording of cases (divisor is too small).

From next week school education will resume but will be provided through dedicated TV channels.

The curve is massively flattening. However there is still no confirmation that all NZers coming in at the border will be quarantined. FFS everyone wants it, the epidemiologist advice is saying to do it and the govt has given no reason for the failure to do so. If it wasn't for that I would be feeling good about the situation being addressed. That really needs to be sorted out or we will be back where we started again.

[George the original one]

However there is still no confirmation that all NZers coming in at the border will be quarantined. FFS everyone wants it, the epidemiologist advice is saying to do it and the govt has given no reason for the failure to do so.

Logistics? After all, it takes manpower to ensure no one is slipping out of their quarantine and the quarantinees need someplace to reside. Maybe a combination of quarantine and testing to shorten the quarantine.

Negotiating with favored trading partners? You don't want to appear Trumpish at this point by acting unilaterally.

[thrifty++]

@GTOO - yeah that's probably one point is the man power. The space will be easy. Bucket loads of empty hotels to fill and staff to use. Be good for business. But probably more the police. Frustrating they haven't said that though or any reason.

Not sure about the trading partners one. Its only NZ citizens allowed in now. Its all the returning NZers

[Ego]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... ions-about

A team from Fudan University analysed blood samples from 175 patients discharged from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre and found that nearly a third had unexpectedly low levels of antibodies. In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all.

Big problem.

[fiby41]

Re walks, we're not leaving the house unless necessary. Neighbour and us are taking turns buying fresh produce.
10 mins walk to the east, 3 members of the same family were hospitalized. Niece had returned from Dubai in the first week of March. 3 more later, 1 family member, 2 neighbours.
15 mins south on my path to the long distance bus stop a tea vendor tested positive yesterday. The police frequent there.
App has been launched that gets to know your location via Bluetooth & wifi and lets you know if you've had come in contact with someone compromised or have been to a place where they've been and what to do next.
Kerala has started walk in to get tested.

[ertyu]

foreigners i know working in china say antibody blood tests administered through employers, results to be reported to local CDCs. I assume same applies to the 50k Wuhan residents leaving the city to return to work elsewhere in the country. China has taken the tightened surveillance route to managing this. most people outside of china imo underestimate how effective china will be at managing this because they underestimate how tight the state surveillance is.