COVID-19

[classical_Liberal]

It might also have the added benefit of squashing the anti-vaxxer movement since the MMR vaccine has been central to that cause
Sorry ... /speculation

Just to step up the speculation a notch. The antivaxers may have provided a great control group to test the hypothesis @CS posted. Since such a small number of young people end up with severe COVID-19, I would imagine reviewing immunization records of the few who do would not be a difficult task.

@BI
I see a couple of clinical trials in there for ACE inhibitors and ARB's, previously discussed by @ego. One is being done in Minneapolis MN, at HCMC. Thanks, that is a great link!

[thrifty++]

89 new cases in NZ bringing the total actual and probable cases to 1039.

Still only 1 death.

15 people in hospital, including two in a critical condition. There was 1 person who was in critical condition who came back of it so I don't know if the 2 includes that person going back in or if its a new person. But for the sake of conservativeness Im going to read the tally of serious cases as 3 so far.

180 have recovered.

Bringing death rate down to 0.10% and serious plus death rate of 0.38%.

Total number of lab tests so far is 36,209. 0.75% of the population.

1% has been traced as community transmission.

It is considered by the govt that NZ is not showing exponential growth that has been experienced in other countries. Modelling by the govt was expecting there to be 4,000 cases reported by this point, 12 days into the lockdown.

it seems as though the number of cases in Australia is also slowing down. But I don't know how many tests they have done. The death rate there is also fairly low at 0.54%

[sid3]

Maybe the government said not to use masks because there is a mask shortage due to lack of preparation and the general public creating demand for masks decreases availability for those on the front lines in need. Or maybe they thought that if people think they need a mask to be safe then greater panic will arise around the situation, business as usual will discontinue further, and the beloved economy will fail, as people will be blowing off the pandemic in greater proportions than we have seen.

+1 for speculation

[bryan]

@thrifty++, okay, I could see a bit of that. Really funny to me, though, because every time I've read your post I replied to, my own post after I wrote it, your reply, and my post here, I've been touching my face bc I don't have a mask on.

[George the original one]

It is considered by the govt that NZ is not showing exponential growth that has been experienced in other countries. Modelling by the govt was expecting there to be 4,000 cases reported by this point, 12 days into the lockdown.

it seems as though the number of cases in Australia is also slowing down. But I don't know how many tests they have done. The death rate there is also fairly low at 0.54%

Yes, New Zealand has done well and is not on the COVID-19 trajectory, as can be seen on Covid Trends. Welcome to the "what we do now?" zone!

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?locati ... ed+Kingdom

[thrifty++]

@GTTO - I think NZ will get things under control. Lockdown has been swift and strict and there has been significant acceptance of it and compliance. After the 4 week lockdown I think things could gradually return to normal - sans international travel.

But there is a major wildcard. The border is not being strictly managed. Only symptomatic people are being quarantined. Everyone needs to be quarantined or I can see us getting a major outbreak in winter coming through the border. Especially since there are 650k kiwis living in Australia who might start to trickle back here if Australia doesn't get things under control.

I cant believe the border is not managed more strictly. Its such a massive Achilles heel.

[Ego]

Possible way to distinguish between those who experience mild Covid and those who experience complete respiratory failure.

https://t.co/shaEFMNL9z?amp=1

Patients with PCR proven symptomatic COVID-19 infection hospitalized at our institution from
29th February to 27th March 2020 (n=40) were analyzed for baseline clinical and laboratory
findings. Patients requiring mechanical ventilation 13/40 (32.5%) did not differ in age,
comorbidities, radiological findings, respiratory rate or qSofa score. However, elevated
interleukin-6 (IL-6) was strongly associated with the need for mechanical ventilation (p=1.2·10-
5
). In addition, the maximal IL-6 level (cutoff 80 pg/ml) for each patient during disease predicted
respiratory failure with high accuracy (p=1.7·10-8, AUC=0.98). The risk of respiratory failure for
patients with IL-6 levels of ≥ 80pg /ml was 22 times higher compared to patients with lower IL-
6 levels.

See also:
https://selfhack.com/blog/interleukin-6/

[ertyu]

useful. Some usual suspects - obesity, high fat diet, irregular sleep, high blood sugar, etc - appearing in the list of factors responsible for high IL-6 --- coffee was a surprise, though. As someone who drinks it by the bucketload, I might have to grit my teeth, bear the tear-inducing withdrawal headache (yep, that's how addicted I am) and hope my IL-6 will drop with time as a result. Might also explain the high death rate of italy and spain vs. south korea/china - the former two are heavy coffee drinking populations while the latter generally aren't.

[2Birds1Stone]

I'm wondering if this is more of a cause and effect thing.

Looks like levels are increased by most illness/disease/stress states, so those who are badly effected because of Covid and/or other underlying issues will naturally have higher levels.

[ertyu]

reading,

All patients with PCR proven symptomatic COVID-19 infection hospitalized at our institution
from 29th February to 27th March 2020 (n=40) were analyzed for baseline clinical and laboratory
findings. Decision on endotracheal intubation was made following internationally accepted
recommendations (PaO2/FiO2 <150mmHg). Patient data were anonymized for analysis
...
In total, 13/40 (32.5%) patients deteriorated during hospitalization and required mechanical
ventilation. The time from hospital admission to intubation varied from less than one hour to 9
days (median 2 days).

Seems to me they tested people on admission, didn't look at test results before deciding who needs to be on a ventilator and then used other accepted decision-making criteria if patients' condition deteriorated enough. Then they went back to see whether there was anything that those guys (all 13 were guys, rip) had in common. Basically, the guys who needed intubation also had higher IL-6 upon admission. I guess it's possible their IL-6 was worse because they were more ill and there was some other factor causing them to be more ill, but there weren't any other distinguishing comorbidities between the intubated patients and the non-intubated patients.

[CS]

@BI
Thanks for the links to the trials. +1 for finding some treatments before the vaccine. Summer is coming and this lockdown is getting old already. 17-24 months to go?

[CS]

@Ego
Thanks for the info on Il-6

Boris Johnson, UK Prime Minister, is in the hospital now. I hope he gets antibody therapy for the sole reason of reducing possible chaos. My own selfish desire, admittedly.

The captain of the ship that blew the whistle has tested positive.

Edit: Also, the US has stopped issuing passports except for emergencies within 72 hours.

[Ego]

I'm wondering if this is more of a cause and effect thing.

I was wondering this too. IL6 inhibitors are being administered in conjunction with steroids to those who are declining fast and are about to be put on ventilators. They have shown remarkable improvements. They are also using anti-coagulants with success on certain patients.

[jacob]

Also, doesn't coffee function as a ghetto bronchidilator? Perhaps this allowed people to get sicker while still being functional before getting admitted.

(Caveat: Pure speculation. I don't know what I'm talking about.)

[Ego]

BTW, one of the best resources right now is the podcast I've been recommending here for years. Kind of Joe Rogan for Virologists...

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/

[Seppia]

U.K.’s Johnson in Hospital with Persistent Coronavirus Symptoms
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... precaution

Between this and the queen making a speech tonight, I'm afraid BJ is doing worse than advertised.

[CS]

Coffee does work for asthma attacks. I love/hate it. Asthma often hits me at night - so coffee and breathing (and not panicking)== stay up all night, or try to calm down without it by finding a sitting position to rest in. For some reason, lying down is the worst. Sometimes a side position helps.

The Queen's speech really does make it seem like BJ is dying.

[George the original one]

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Sat, Apr 4
- 999 Positives
- 17926 Negatives
- 26 Deaths

Cases by County
- 19 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 78 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 4 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 3 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 39 Deschutes (Bend)
- 11 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Hood River (Hood River)
- 33 Jackson (Medford)
- 13 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 14 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 24 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 41 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Malheur (Vale)
- 188 Marion (Salem)
- 2 Morrow (Heppner)
- 209 Multnomah (Portland)
- 22 Polk (Dallas)
- 3 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 5 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 3 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 247 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 23 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 23 19 or younger
- 101 20-29
- 145 30-39
- 183 40-49
- 191 50-59
- 182 60- 69
- 103 70-79
- 70 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 2 19 or younger
- 11 20-29
- 12 30-39
- 36 40-49
- 41 50-59
- 64 60- 69
- 42 70-79
- 31 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 239 Yes
- 632 No
- 128 Not provided

Sex
- 529 Female
- 462 Male
- 8 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- pending Available adult ICU beds
- pending Available adult non-ICU beds
- pending Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- pending Available pediatric beds
- pending Available ventilators
- pending COVID-19 admissions
- pending COVID-19 patients on ventilators

69 new cases. Added Sherman County. 8 counties still without reported infections.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Sun, Apr 5
- 1068 Positives
- 19556 Negatives
- 27 Deaths

Cases by County
- 19 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 84 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 4 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 6 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 39 Deschutes (Bend)
- 11 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Hood River (Hood River)
- 33 Jackson (Medford)
- 13 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 15 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 27 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 43 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Malheur (Vale)
- 198 Marion (Salem)
- 2 Morrow (Heppner)
- 233 Multnomah (Portland)
- 24 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Sherman (Moro)
- 3 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 7 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 3 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 259 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 26 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 23 19 or younger
- 108 20-29
- 159 30-39
- 197 40-49
- 198 50-59
- 197 60- 69
- 110 70-79
- 74 80 and over
- 2 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 2 19 or younger
- 11 20-29
- 12 30-39
- 39 40-49
- 42 50-59
- 74 60- 69
- 44 70-79
- 34 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 258 Yes
- 670 No
- 140 Not provided

Sex
- 567 Female
- 494 Male
- 7 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- pending Available adult ICU beds
- pending Available adult non-ICU beds
- pending Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- pending Available pediatric beds
- pending Available ventilators
- pending COVID-19 admissions
- pending COVID-19 patients on ventilators

[George the original one]

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Fri 3 Apr
- 7591 Positives
- 80327 Negatives
- 310 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 23 Adams (Ritzville)
- 2 Asotin (Asotin)
- 147 Benton (Prosser)
- 22 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 7 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 131 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 17 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 10 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 49 Franklin (Pasco)
- 74 Grant (Ephrata)
- 3 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 121 Island (Coupeville)
- 20 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 2865 King (Seattle)
- 95 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 9 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 8 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 12 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 12 Mason (Shelton)
- 7 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 493 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 7 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 158 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 1 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1398 Snohomish (Everett)
- 188 Spokane (Spokane)
- 5 Stevens (Colville)
- 57 Thurston (Olympia)
- 1 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 9 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 129 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 10 Whitman (Colfax)
- 281 Yakima (Yakima)
- 1216 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 34% 40-59
- 26% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 1% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 1% 20-39
- 7% 40-59
- 38% 60-79
- 55% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 50% Female
- 44% Male
- 6% Unknown

393 new cases.

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Sat 4 Apr
- 7984 Positives
- 83391 Negatives
- 338 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 26 Adams (Ritzville)
- 3 Asotin (Asotin)
- 166 Benton (Prosser)
- 28 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 8 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 145 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 17 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 10 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 59 Franklin (Pasco)
- 82 Grant (Ephrata)
- 6 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 132 Island (Coupeville)
- 22 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 3158 King (Seattle)
- 102 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 11 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 8 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 16 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 14 Mason (Shelton)
- 9 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 536 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 9 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 159 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 1 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1486 Snohomish (Everett)
- 199 Spokane (Spokane)
- 5 Stevens (Colville)
- 62 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 12 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 142 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 11 Whitman (Colfax)
- 316 Yakima (Yakima)
- 1018 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 34% 40-59
- 26% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 1% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 1% 20-39
- 7% 40-59
- 38% 60-79
- 55% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 50% Female
- 44% Male
- 6% Unknown

[Ego]

In the Radical Immune System Hacks thread I mentioned a study that found that some live vaccines have off-target effects. Turns out that countries with required TB vaccination have lower rates of serious Covid-19 cases.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/heal ... ccine.html

Like other vaccines, B.C.G. has a specific target: TB. But evidence accumulating over the past decade suggests the vaccine also has so-called off-target effects, reducing viral illnesses, respiratory infections and sepsis, and appears to bolster the body’s immune system.

The idea is an offshoot of the “hygiene hypothesis,” which suggests that the modern emphasis on cleanliness has deprived children of exposure to germs. The lack of “training” has resulted in weakened immune systems, less able to resist disease.

Also, it is possible that a covid-specific vaccine will not be very effective. In other words, not a panacea. Since this is an entirely new vaccine and everyone will be getting it at once, they will be balancing safety with effectiveness so they will probably err on the side of safety. So we ought not count on it being totally effective.