COVID-19

[jennypenny]

@CS - Interesting. Most of the older crowd (depending on when vaccination was introduced in their country) would almost surely have contracted rubella directly which does confer lifelong immunity.

Not always. The immunity can, and does, wear off. They discovered this with the trend for later pregnancies because rubella immunity is something ob/gyns test for. My immunity had worn off (hadn't plummeted but was well below standards) and my OB told me that she sees it in a lot of older mothers. I remember her saying that she wished they also routinely tested for mumps and measles immunity so they could know whether the MMR vaccine had a shelf life or if it was unique to rubella. Might be similar to chicken pox/shingles since they offer booster shots for those after you're done having children.

[jacob]

I'm aware that the vaccine-induced immunity could wear off over time (or not take in the first place), but I thought that immunity was lifelong if one had had the actual disease. Maybe there are exceptions to that rule, and given how problematic rubella is for the unborn, it's an easy thing to test for and avoid.

[jennypenny]

I had rubella (I also had mumps ... the joys of growing up in an extended family with immigrants and poorer relations). I also received the MMR vaccine since I never contracted measles and needed that part of it.

I'm not trying to be argumentative. Just pointing out that immunity might wane with time, and if it begins to wane in late 30s/early 40s given my anecdotal experience with rubella, it might explain age-related COVID issues if MMR is somehow related. (wow ... lots of 'mights' and 'maybes' in that lol)


Another explanation is that rubella is also much less common in children than adults in general. Could be a correlation thing?

[CS]

@jp

The original poster on the forum I found this on had your same point about why some age groups might be more vulnerable due to lost immunity from their shots being so long ago.

If the side effects are slim to none, I think the benefit of the shot are worth it.

[jennypenny]

It would absolutely be worth it, especially since it's a known vaccine that hasn't been rushed into production just for COVID protection. It might also have the added benefit of squashing the anti-vaxxer movement since the MMR vaccine has been central to that cause.

Fingers crossed this is true. It would be easy enough to have DS's immunity confirmed through a blood test so he doesn't have to spend the rest of high school locked in the house.

Sorry ... /speculation

[Sclass]

Re: Masks

I'm suspicious when there's a CDC recommendation that healthcare workers do one thing and the general population do another. I can't imagine there is harm in wearing a mask if you already have one, especially if you figure out a way to reuse it.

You’re right, it’s like the govt is trying to protect us from ourselves. The mask encourages you to touch your face more. The mask gives you increased confidence to go out and thereby increase the rates of infection. Most untrained citizens are too dumb to wear the mask correctly...that’s right cover the mouth AND nose. Mask buying will take masks away from health workers.

Only the last one makes sense. And even that, the govt treats everyone like a baby. I get it, some people are uninformed. But do we really need to get the green light from Trump and Fauci to take some action?

I was stunned to see half of the people in our local farmers market wearing masks. I guess most people need the government to tell them what to do. Last week I was the only one wearing a mask. I was actually shocked how many of the masks yesterday were the unobtainable N95s with the little exhaust valves. I suspect the people were medical professionals working at the hospital 100yds away.

When I get really frustrated with other people I stop and give thanks that I have the freedom and tools to still do things as I see fit for the circumstances.

By the same token I’m mad that people with good incomes cannot save a couple of months of expenses because of lifestyle choices during good times. But I just have to take a deep breath behind my respirator.

[bostonimproper]

Re: MMR vaccine theory, it seems a similar hypothesis (childhood vaccine conferred immunity) was studied after the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak: Children's vaccines do not induce cross reactivity against SARS‐CoV.

That said, they used mice cells for testing. And apparently mice don't get measles?

In summary, our results show that children's vaccines do not induce crossreactivity against SARS‐CoV, stimulation of T cells and do not prevent SARS‐CoV infection in Vero cells. The children infected with SARS‐CoV may thus develop mild symptoms and other clinical signs caused by other factors, such as inability to mount hormone responses (eg, adrenocorticotropic hormone),12 may stimulate only weak exacerbated immune responses after infection,13,14 or may fail to respond with cellular factors that affect infection.15 As neonates have immature immune functions compared with adults, their abilities to process viral antigens tend to be weaker.16 It has also been shown that some anti‐inflammatory cytokines such as transforming growth factorβ are upregulated in the lungs of neonatal mice compared with adults.17 All of these factors may result in milder clinical responses in children who are infected with SARS‐CoV.

It should be noted that this study has examined only the vaccine products that were produced in 2003 and 2004, and by no means represent the vaccines used when children were actually immunised. Moreover, the responses of mice to live attenuated vaccines may be different from those in humans. For example, measles, rubella virus and poliovirus naturally infect only humans and primates, but not mice.17,18 Thus, crossreactivity induced by these vaccines may be more detectable in humans than mice.

[CS]

Edit - it looks like the last two studies directly contradict each other (the one below, and @bostonimproper's above). I don't have time right not to read closer, but what the?

Here is a study with mice, measles immunization and SARS.

I wonder if the protective effects is from the whole MMR combo, not just the R.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 2214000051

Abstract
The recent identification of a novel human coronavirus responsible of a SARS-like illness in the Middle-East a decade after the SARS pandemic, demonstrates that reemergence of a SARS-like coronavirus from an animal reservoir remains a credible threat. Because SARS is contracted by aerosolized contamination of the respiratory tract, a vaccine inducing mucosal long-term protection would be an asset to control new epidemics. To this aim, we generated live attenuated recombinant measles vaccine (MV) candidates expressing either the membrane-anchored SARS-CoV spike (S) protein or its secreted soluble ectodomain (Ssol). In mice susceptible to measles virus, recombinant MV expressing the anchored full-length S induced the highest titers of neutralizing antibodies and fully protected immunized animals from intranasal infectious challenge with SARS-CoV. As compared to immunization with adjuvanted recombinant Ssol protein, recombinant MV induced stronger and Th1-biased responses, a hallmark of live attenuated viruses and a highly desirable feature for an antiviral vaccine.

Someone said the military guys on that ship would have been up to date with MMR boosters. I wonder if their sicknesses have been more mild?

[CS]

@jp
Our university requires that either that shot as a booster or titers proving immunity to one of the three (oh, how I wish had I had that record on which one). Your son would have to get it soon anyhow, so getting it a few years early is really no big deal.

Now let's hope there is not a huge run on MMR shots. Because, you know, there will be.

[Ego]

Apparently Italy has a strong anti-vax movement

https://www.vaccinestoday.eu/stories/va ... ory-italy/

In Italy, the number of two-year-olds vaccinated against measles has dropped from more than 90% to below 80%. This is well short of the World Health Organization’s recommended coverage of 95% or more. Almost three times as many measles cases have been recorded in Italy to date, compared to all of 2016.

Also, there was a pandemic of Rubella (which is also know as German Measles) in Europe from 1962-64. Anyone know which areas were most affected? Older Germans seem to do much better than older Italians. Does this explains why?

[thrifty++]

Comparisons on the web to the 2009 swine flu pandemic and the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic have been frequent.

However I haven't seen much in the way of reference to the Hong Kong Flu or the Asian Flu.

Clearly COVID19 is far more serious than the 2009 pandemic. But its not clear to me its as serious as the 1918 pandemic. And there are two big pandemics in the middle which are much more recent and almost seem to have been forgotten

The Hong Kong Flu killed about one million world wide 1968/1969 and the Asian Flu killed about two million worldwide in 57/58. Does anyone know much about these illnesses? Ie how society responded, how the economy responded, the initial patterns and exponential growth etc. Further, there must be people on here who were alive at the time, especially for the Hong Kong Flu. Whats your recollection of that time?

[IlliniDave]

The Hong Kong Flu killed about one million world wide 1968/1969 and the Asian Flu killed about two million worldwide in 57/58. Does anyone know much about these illnesses? Ie how society responded, how the economy responded, the initial patterns and exponential growth etc. Further, there must be people on here who were alive at the time, especially for the Hong Kong Flu. Whats your recollection of that time?

My dad was in college for the asian flu and it swept through the dorms at his school (Villanova). They didn't do much for the sick kids, just whatever the normal treatment for the flu was and told them to go back to their rooms and get rest and fluids. He doesn't recall any closures or masks or anything like he's seeing on the news today. He said he never felt worse for about 2 days, then was fine. When he went to the clinic they had he said there were 40-50 other guys there as sick as he was.

I'll ask him about the Hong Kong flu. I was only 4-5 at the time. Don't remember anything about it. I actually never heard the name until you mentioned it in this thread.

[CS]

Also, there was a pandemic of Rubella (which is also know as German Measles) in Europe from 1962-64. Anyone know which areas were most affected? Older Germans seem to do much better than older Italians. Does this explains why?

That would be interesting if that was the difference!

[bryan]

The mask encourages you to touch your face more.

I've heard this.. but after wearing a couple different types of mask in different scenarios, it's clear that wearing any style mask reduces face touching drastically for me.

How would wearing a mask increase the wearer's face touching? Is it presumed that the average person doesn't touch their face much? For me it discourages touching my face because it covers up the facial hair I usually mess with.

The mask gives you increased confidence to go out and thereby increase the rates of infection.

I wonder if it's really the case? I think that at least (for now) in most places in the USA that wearing a mask in public is embarrassing or funny-looking so it might actually decrease outside trips, or shift some traffic to less popular times of day, so that you don't make a fool out of yourself.

[bostonimproper]

@CS

Your second study was about scientists expressing SARS spike protein in a measles vaccine (i.e. adding SARS to the measles vaccine, which is being used as a vector) as a potential vaccine candidate.

The study I cited addressed the hypothesis of childhood vaccinations conferring protected against SARS. Looking at the results there, measles vaccine is a "probably not". MMRV is a "can't rule it out", but if it were it'd be for the rubella and you'd have to test in primate cells because the evidence in mice cells isn't there (probably because mice don't contract rubella either).

[thrifty++]

I've heard this.. but after wearing a couple different types of mask in different scenarios, it's clear that wearing any style mask reduces face touching drastically for me.

I think that people must touch their mask to adjust the fittings. Im very conscious of it though so I try to perfect the fit and commit to not touching it again for the duration of my outing even if it starts to feel too tight or too loose. But I doubt many people as are diligent. I also see some people lopping them on and off and hanging them around their neck wily nilly like a pair of sunglasses. One wrong touch and it traps the virus in your face for whenever you are using it. Also I make sure I wash my hands before I put it on and immediately when I get home before I touch it to take it off. but again I am not sure that everyone else applies the same level of INTJ style dedication.

[George the original one]

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Thu 2 Apr
- 6966 Positives
- 75633 Negatives
- 284 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 20 Adams (Ritzville)
- 1 Asotin (Asotin)
- 136 Benton (Prosser)
- 19 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 7 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 122 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 17 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 7 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 45 Franklin (Pasco)
- 68 Grant (Ephrata)
- 3 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 119 Island (Coupeville)
- 19 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 2711 King (Seattle)
- 92 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 9 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 8 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 12 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 11 Mason (Shelton)
- 4 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 433 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 6 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 150 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 1 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1317 Snohomish (Everett)
- 177 Spokane (Spokane)
- 5 Stevens (Colville)
- 52 Thurston (Olympia)
- 8 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 127 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 10 Whitman (Colfax)
- 238 Yakima (Yakima)
- 1008 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 26% 20-39
- 34% 40-59
- 26% 60-79
- 11% 80+
- 1% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 1% 20-39
- 6% 40-59
- 38% 60-79
- 55% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 50% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown

625 new cases. Added Wahkiakum County and leaves only two counties without reported infections. Worryingly, unassigned cases keeps climbing, such that it is the third highest after King and Snohomish counties. Indicates Washington is further losing control over reporting.

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Fri 3 Apr
- 7591 Positives
- 80327 Negatives
- 310 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 23 Adams (Ritzville)
- 2 Asotin (Asotin)
- 147 Benton (Prosser)
- 22 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 7 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 131 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 17 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 10 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 49 Franklin (Pasco)
- 74 Grant (Ephrata)
- 3 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 121 Island (Coupeville)
- 20 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 2865 King (Seattle)
- 95 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 9 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 8 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 12 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 12 Mason (Shelton)
- 7 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 493 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 7 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 158 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 1 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1398 Snohomish (Everett)
- 188 Spokane (Spokane)
- 5 Stevens (Colville)
- 57 Thurston (Olympia)
- 1 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 9 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 129 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 10 Whitman (Colfax)
- 281 Yakima (Yakima)
- 1216 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 34% 40-59
- 26% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 1% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 1% 20-39
- 7% 40-59
- 38% 60-79
- 55% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 50% Female
- 44% Male
- 6% Unknown

[George the original one]

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Fri, Apr 3
- 899 Positives
- 16535 Negatives
- 22 Deaths

Cases by County
- 17 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 66 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 4 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 1 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 36 Deschutes (Bend)
- 9 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 3 Hood River (Hood River)
- 27 Jackson (Medford)
- 12 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 13 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 21 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 37 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Malheur (Vale)
- 178 Marion (Salem)
- 2 Morrow (Heppner)
- 175 Multnomah (Portland)
- 20 Polk (Dallas)
- 3 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 5 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 3 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 228 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 23 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 18 19 or younger
- 92 20-29
- 131 30-39
- 169 40-49
- 170 50-59
- 161 60- 69
- 91 70-79
- 65 80 and over
- 2 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 1 19 or younger
- 10 20-29
- 10 30-39
- 32 40-49
- 32 50-59
- 52 60- 69
- 39 70-79
- 28 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 204 Yes
- 538 No
- 157 Not provided

Sex
- 486 Female
- 403 Male
- 10 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- pending Available adult ICU beds
- pending Available adult non-ICU beds
- pending Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- pending Available pediatric beds
- pending Available ventilators
- pending COVID-19 admissions
- pending COVID-19 patients on ventilators

100 new cases. Think we've lost our advantage again.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Sat, Apr 4
- 999 Positives
- 17926 Negatives
- 26 Deaths

Cases by County
- 19 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 78 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 4 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 3 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 39 Deschutes (Bend)
- 11 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Hood River (Hood River)
- 33 Jackson (Medford)
- 13 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 14 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 24 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 41 Linn (Albany)
- 2 Malheur (Vale)
- 188 Marion (Salem)
- 2 Morrow (Heppner)
- 209 Multnomah (Portland)
- 22 Polk (Dallas)
- 3 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 5 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 3 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 247 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 23 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 23 19 or younger
- 101 20-29
- 145 30-39
- 183 40-49
- 191 50-59
- 182 60- 69
- 103 70-79
- 70 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 2 19 or younger
- 11 20-29
- 12 30-39
- 36 40-49
- 41 50-59
- 64 60- 69
- 42 70-79
- 31 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 239 Yes
- 632 No
- 128 Not provided

Sex
- 529 Female
- 462 Male
- 8 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- pending Available adult ICU beds
- pending Available adult non-ICU beds
- pending Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- pending Available pediatric beds
- pending Available ventilators
- pending COVID-19 admissions
- pending COVID-19 patients on ventilators

[CS]

@bostonimproper
Thanks! My brain is on overload - which means details so far away from my own expertise are overwhelming.

[bostonimproper]

Interested in what interventions are being tested as therapeutics? Follow along at clinicaltrials.gov. My hope is that we'll find treatment guidance that'll help us curb worst cases prophylactically without having to wait for a vaccine.