COVID-19

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George the original one
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Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:45 pm
State of Washington published count as of 6:20p Wed, 25 Mar
- 2580 Positives
- 31712 Negatives (not updated for 2 days now)
- 123 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Adams (Ritzville)
- 10 Benton (Prosser)
- 6 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 16 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 3 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 2 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 7 Franklin (Pasco)
- 27 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 38 Island (Coupeville)
- 10 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1359 King (Seattle)
- 27 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 6 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 6 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 1 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 155 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 2 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 63 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 634 Snohomish (Everett)
- 54 Spokane (Spokane)
- 2 Stevens (Colville)
- 14 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 66 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 2 Whitman (Colfax)
- 51 Yakima (Yakima)
- 77 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 14% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 14% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 4% Unknown
627 new cases. Surges in Clark County (Vancouver) and Spokane County (Spokane).

State of Washington published count as of 6:20p Thu, 26 Mar
- 3207 Positives
- 43173 Negatives
- 147 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 3 Adams (Ritzville)
- 19 Benton (Prosser)
- 10 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 5 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 48 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 7 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 5 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 7 Franklin (Pasco)
- 33 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 64 Island (Coupeville)
- 11 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1577 King (Seattle)
- 33 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 8 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 7 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 5 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 1 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 186 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 2 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 78 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 778 Snohomish (Everett)
- 67 Spokane (Spokane)
- 2 Stevens (Colville)
- 24 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 86 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 3 Whitman (Colfax)
- 61 Yakima (Yakima)
- 69 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 15% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 18% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 13% 70-79
- 13% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown
Last edited by George the original one on Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

thrifty++
Posts: 1171
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

368 confirmed or probable cases in NZ

37 people recovered.

Shit! Now there is the first critical/serious case. I fear we are soon going to be just like everywhere else!

At least there is now a testing capacity of 2,000 per day which apparently is on a per capita par with Germany.

George the original one
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Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:44 pm
I also feel like a lot of these headlines are taking the "asymptomatic" cases out of context.
After listening to today's White House briefing, they're taking them out of context. Dr. Birx said the spread of COVID-19 doesn't match their models, so either people are asymptomatic or they don't really understand how it spreads. I'll take the latter rather than the former, maybe a small mix.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

George the original one wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:05 pm
Dr. Birx said the spread of COVID-19 doesn't match their models
That's interesting. Did she mention in what ways the spread of COVID-19 doesn't match their models? Is it spreading faster than they were expecting?

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

Marc Lipsitch, an infectious disease epidemiologist, who was part of the group who produced some of the models Dr. Birx was talking about had a response on Twitter here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243 ... 15136.html

bostonimproper
Posts: 581
Joined: Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:45 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by bostonimproper »

Individual states are competing against each other, bidding up prices on key medical supplies. Blue state governors believe they cannot rely on federal reserves of medical equipment.

From CNN:
Frustration over the Wild West-style market for these essential medical goods has bubbled up with increasing heat over the past few days. Speaking to reporters, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker underscored the absurd push-and-pull between government officials and manufacturers.

"In one case (a ventilator maker) told me I was competing with FEMA to acquire ventilators. So they told me I'm competing against the federal government to get ventilators from the state of Illinois. And the federal government is not distributing ventilators to the state of Illinois, so I'm literally working against a competitor," Pritzker said, relaying a story he told Trump.
Relevant thread from Tom Inglesby about how federal government could coordinate that's worth a read.

slowtraveler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

2 professors of medicine at Stanford do some math and realize the fatality rate may be orders of magnitude lower than predicted because actual infections are orders of magnitude higher than current numbers. So all deaths and serious cases are counted with the lower number of confirmed infections rather than real infections*.

This article is mostly covered here ** as well if you can't get around the wsj paywall.

In short, it may just be a more contagious flu. Mortality rate may be on par with a normal flu in the .1% range. 1/1000 deaths/infections.

*https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-cor ... 1585088464

**https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... ality-rate

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:02 pm
The Stanford research used the incident rate in Vo and projected it out to include the entire province and also relied on NBA testing data? :? In Veneto, where 8% of the population was tested with attempt to go deep enough to hit asymptomatic, the death rate was much lower than Lombardy, but still over 2% due to similar aged population-IOW reflective of near 1% rate in less aged population.
Ok, I could use some help from a math wiz. The US is currently running it's 2020 census. So the infrastructure is already in place to mail outserolgy kits to each household(ie to each census household), at a cost of about $20 per person based on the information I've seen. This would cost around 7 billion, drops in the bucket compared to stimulus. People then use the census site to report household findings, just like the census, with similar response rates.

Let's assume the current serology test kits are not 100% accurate, with some amount of random false positives and random false negatives. How would the variable of accuracy percentage of serology testing impact the data for a general sense of COVID exposure rates? Would 90% be enough? How about less?

Basically my question is, would this make sense if we could ramp up production of home serology tests effectively enough to do something like this? How accurate would the test really need to be to get some general public health guidance on the situation? At least we'd have the data and could modify it as research continues on the test itself and true accuracy rates are fleshed out. We could even use tests from several different sources, hoping that at least one of them is accurate enough in the end to get some good data. That would probably make production levels easier as well.

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C40
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Re: COVID-19

Post by C40 »

Here is a collection of Covid-related videos.. mostly from China and Iran. Mostly cel-phone videos.

https://archive.nothingburger.today/Vid ... d_or_Dead/

I believe many of these are videos that the governments (in China and Iran probably) would not allow sharing.

warning - these can be disturbing. Lots of patients in bad conditions, dead bodies, etc.
Last edited by C40 on Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:10 am, edited 3 times in total.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

They told us at work the folks in the hazmat suits would be in yesterday evening to perform a "deep cleaning". Story is that someone who works on the campus was in contact with someone covid-19 positive. The person is in self-quarantine without symptoms but hasn't been tested. Because of HIPAA they won't id the individual, so I can't judge my personal risk based on the "incident" any more than that. That's the closest the virus has penetrated my orbit so far.

Latest is 531 confirmed cases in the state out of about 4,080 tests performed and 43 positives in my county. Testing guidelines are pretty strict still, as far as I know, and the implication from state department of health data is that about 13% of the statewide population identified by medical providers as displaying symptoms associated with covid-19 and subsequently tested are testing positive. Because of the way the data is collected there are unreported negative specimens (private labs are required to report all positives to the state, but not all private labs furnish negative result data to the state according to the state department of health). So the ratio of positives to tests successfully performed is probably a little lower.

Bad news is that the virus is established here and illnesses from it are on the rise. The good news, if you could call it that, is that data implies that less than 20% of the people around here sick with covid-19-like symptoms are infected with covid-19. I'm still hopeful (but not confident) that the arrival of warm weather will blunt the spread.

My city is still not under any sort of shelter-in-place, just the restrictions I mentioned before on bars and restaurants and other businesses and venues where moderate or large numbers of people would gather. No idea what the local hospital situation is. My local grocery store is setting aside some time first thing in the morning for folks over 65 only. That seems like a pretty good idea and allows that cohort to shop with reduced risk if they choose to do so.

Looks like I'll have to make my own decision when enough is enough and I stop going into work.

ertyu
Posts: 2893
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

Keeping my fingers crossed for you, UK! BoJo is doing his part for #HerdImmunity! He may die - but that is a sacrifice I'm willing to accept.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Quite a lot of high profile politicians in the UK already got it: Prince of Whales:), UK Health Secretary and now BoJo to name a few. Is it a chance, the fact that they meet a lot more people each day or has the virus spread much wider than suspected?
Last edited by Bankai on Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

Jason

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

No worries in the US being that Trump walks through the world like he's Robert Duvall on the beaches of Viet Nam in Apocalypse Now.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@Bankai - High profile people seemingly have very easy access to testing for even the lightest of symptoms indicating a wider spread. OTOH, politicians do shake hands and otherwise interact with a lot of different people making them great vectors indicating the opposite. It's tradition in the US when one president leaves the office to leave a letter with a piece of advice for the next president and IIRC, GWB give Obama a bottle of hand sanitizer and recommended using it.

Gilberto de Piento
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

Another factor to consider when considering whether or not the current measures are needed is mutation. A few weeks ago there was a report that the virus had mutated so there was more than one type with variation on ability to spread and to kill. Maybe different types are operating in different areas making for different results. This along with all the other factors would make the measures look more or less necessary.

Jason

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

This was in the NYT - how a ritzy Connecticut community became a hub of the virus for various reasons including fear of stigmatization.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/c ... -zero.html

I felt when Tom Hanks announced that he and his wife caught the virus that it was somewhat a Magic Johnson has AIDS moment, at least in the US. I know when I told someone I wasn't feeling well the first thing they asked was "Do you have the virus?" I understood their concern as I was just with them a few days before but it felt that someone just spray painted COVID19 on my life.

High profile announcements at once reflect the discrepancy of testing but also serve as cautionary tales and anecdotal means to de-stigmatize.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@classical_Liberal:

First off, I am not a math whiz (call out to daylen/Jacob etc.) It does not take a math whiz to recognize the huge problem with the math/science in the WSJ/Stanford MDs opinion piece.

There are many examples of well conceived studies that extrapolate from a relatively small group to a larger population, for instance the Framingham Heart study. This only works if valid assumption that small group is reasonably representative of larger group. The extrapolation described in the WSJ opinion piece does the opposite. The population of Vo was not chosen for mass testing because representative or at random. It was chosen because early incidence was already detected there! So, the Stanford MDs are extrapolating rate of infection over entire region in violation of level of introducing bias into data that is taught at 8th grade level. Therefore, what I would be so bold as to extrapolate would be that the average WSJ reader must be at below 6th grade math/science competency.

Anyways, the simple answer to your question is that such an extensive survey would generate far more than enough data for valid statistical analysis. However, it would just generate a snapshot in time of what is a constantly changing situation. I am constantly updating my own take as I attempt to read more science (as opposed to either opinion pieces or hospital room anecdotes) and my current take is that the level of contagion is such that a reasonable degree of social distancing is generally effective and that is why/where curve flattens. IOW, large hidden already immune asymptomatic portion of population is not necessary or best fit explanation.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:11 pm
That's interesting. Did she mention in what ways the spread of COVID-19 doesn't match their models? Is it spreading faster than they were expecting?
They were expecting a faster spread.

Tyler9000
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Tyler9000 »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:40 am
It does not take a math whiz to recognize the huge problem with the math/science in the WSJ/Stanford MDs opinion piece.
To be fair, it also does not take a math wiz to recognize the huge problem with the math/science in the Imperial College study that everyone seems to hold as the gold standard. They assumed that there would be no community testing available at all to mitigate the spread until a vaccine is widely available, an important detail which is on the verge of being invalidated just a few weeks later. That makes a big difference! And if some of these treatments pan out in reducing the fatality rate and recovery time by external means, all bets are off with every study done so far. Models are hard, and even the very best ones require constant updates as new information becomes available.

In any case, I personally have no idea what will happen. Being a seasoned ERE reader, I'm pretty sensitive to trying to avoid sitting on top of Mt. Stupid. And frankly, most of the layperson/media research interpretations seem to be falling exactly into that trap with a false sense of expertise in fields they knew nothing about before reading about pandemic models on Wikipedia. If you read Twitter (please don't), apparently everyone is an epidemiology expert now and the actual people who have dedicated their lives to it are morons who don't know how science works. :roll:

So I'll keep sharing stories about different researchers who have competing ideas about what's going on in the hope that the truth is out there somewhere and will reveal itself in time.
Last edited by Tyler9000 on Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:53 am, edited 3 times in total.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:40 am
IOW, large hidden already immune asymptomatic portion of population is not necessary or best fit explanation.
Exactly my thoughts.

COVID-19 has a long cooking time, 2-12 days with the average at 5 days. Those long and short tails may indicate that the length or concentration of exposure is a factor in transmission, while most models with wider/faster spread probably assume instant infection at exposure.

Beyond social distance, we know that washing hands and face masks reduce infectability, otherwise our health professionals would not be able to do their work.

The other thing we saw from the Chinese lockdown is that the virus is persistent. It took 6+ weeks of lockdown before they had no new cases.

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