Investments Trade Log

Ask your investment, budget, and other money related questions here
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Bankai
Posts: 816
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:28 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai »

Seppia wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:43 am
What are you doing with your money?
20% in equity in our flat, 25% in pension (index tracker) and 55% in cash. Every month 15% of the paycheck goes into the pension and the rest goes to cash. My plan for the 55% is to gradually deploy it into stocks but now is not the time yet.

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Bankai
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Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:28 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai »

How low can it go? If this guy is right, very low indeed, maybe half of the current levels?
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... o-30-in-2q

EDIT: Also:
The world will take years to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned.

Angel Gurría, OECD secretary general, said the economic shock was already bigger than the financial crisis. He told the BBC it was "wishful thinking" to believe that countries would bounce back quickly.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52000039

Lucky C
Posts: 557
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Of course it can go half of current levels, or lower.. CAPE is now around 21.5 with years of abnormally high profit margins and currently no recessions in the lookback! Depressions bring CAPE into single digits. People who called CAPE nonsense up through 2018 were complaining that it captured the abnormal 08-09 poor earnings, so a high CAPE is justified. Now nobody is complaining that CAPE is actually too optimistic because it captures the longest and most profitable expansion in US history.

This morning's news:
Fed: We will do unlimited QE.
Investors: Hard pass.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

I had the sense the hard pass is because the stimulus bill didn't go through

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Futures were limit down overnight - reported as due to stimulus bill not passing.
The immediate Fed reaction was futures turning positive, but apparently that was an overreaction with the negative morning.
Maybe the Fed kept it from being another -7% circuit breaker in the first 15 minutes day.

Gold prices seem to have bottomed out last week as "sell everything" slowed down, and is now heading back up today. Holding IAU and bought more GOLD.

Gilberto de Piento
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

ertyu wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:05 am
I had the sense the hard pass is because the stimulus bill didn't go through
I suppose the focus is on the short term because this thread is about trading but I think some bill will go through soon. The legislators are just "negotiating" the only way they seem to know how anymore.

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Lemur
Posts: 596
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

1.) Open Money.txt
2.) File
3.) Open
4.) Select Printer [Fed]
5.) Print

ertyu
Posts: 903
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

to stop being a chicken, bought 100 shares each in EGLN, VEUR, U. QE bazooka seems to be working, lots of green all around today.

Edit: there are two wolves inside me. one of them wants to sell a ratio put spread on the SPX to commemorate today's 7% bounce; the other one's not a wolf he's a chicken

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@ertyu

Going the chicken route myself. Fear my dumb luck streak would end. With IV being as high as it is and with so much money being pumped in now, the risk/reward ratio is not there anymore. Selling cash covered puts on some long positions you don't mind getting assigned is where it is at because you can collect a fatter premium and "buy the dip" for the long haul. After further drops in the market, I may consider getting into some LEAP calls for the rebound. That rebound may not begin this year IMO. We still haven't seen the job reports or the full effect of the virus just yet.

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Dream of Freedom
Posts: 501
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Bought BRG @5.38, IRT @7.80, and PSTL @12.44. Just adding to long term positions. There are some interesting deals available right now.

Seppia
Posts: 1415
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

From the latest Howard Marks memo

"What do we know? Not much other than the fact that asset prices are well down, asset holders’ ability to hold coolly is evaporating, and motivated selling is picking up. I’ll sum up my views simply – since there’s nothing sophisticated to say:
 “The bottom” is the day before the recovery begins. Thus it’s absolutely impossible to know when the bottom has been reached . . . ever. Oaktree explicitly rejects the notion of waiting for the bottom; we buy when we can access value cheap.
 Even though there’s no way to say the bottom is at hand, the conditions that make bargains available certainly are materializing.
 Given the price drops and selling we’ve seen so far, I believe this is a good time to invest, although of course it may prove not have been the best time.
 No one can argue that you should spend all your money today . . . but equally, no one can argue that you shouldn’t spend any.
 The more you want to garner potential gains and don’t mind mark-to-market losses, the more you should invest here. On the other hand, the more you care about protecting against interim markdowns and are able to live with missing opportunities for profit, the less you should invest.
But is there really an argument for not investing at all? In my opinion, the fact that we’re not necessarily at “the bottom” isn’t such an argument."

slowtraveler
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:06 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by slowtraveler »

Bought in 2 portfolios. Most of my assets are split between us and international index, I went nearly all in Friday.

About 15% of my assets are in individual stocks divided into GOOG(6%), DEO (4%), DIS (3%), and RDSB(2%). Most of my positions were bought Friday and are up so far. Buying top shelf blue chips at a fair price. Was thinking about ALK or LUV but decided against it. I wouldn't feel comfortable.

Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Lol 6 trillion stimulus package.
This feels like stocks could either skyrocket or lose another 50%

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

skyrocket maybe not, but a good old dead cat, why not.

Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Markets are forward looking, so it's not impossible that if they anticipate both the USA and Europe will go full-japan from now on, stocks all of a sudden become more attractive.
I'm not saying it's likely (I'm in the camp "nobody knows"), but it's a possibility.

Meanwhile, it seems like the gold market is breaking up, with huge demand spike for physical gold.
I'm thinking If maybe this can have weird effects on gold etfs? Anybody smarter than me have an opinion?

There was a first page article on yesterday's FT

Traders have reported a growing shortage of gold bars, as the coronavirus out- break disrupts supply and stokes demand, with one business comparing the frenzied buying of the metal with the consumer rush for toilet roll.
Retail investors in Europe and the US have snapped up gold and silver bars and coins over the past two weeks in an effort to protect their money from the collapse in global stock prices and many currencies.
But Europe’s biggest gold refineries have struggled to keep up because of the region’s shutdown. Valcambi, Pamp and Argor-Heraeus are in the Swiss region of Ticino, near the border with Italy. Local authorities announced in recent days that production in the area was to be temporarily halted.
The gold price hit a seven-year high on March 9 of more than $1,700 a troy ounce as the deepening economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic sent investors scurrying for haven assets. But gold has since been swept up in the selling frenzy, with some inves- tors needing to offload their holdings to free up cash, pushing the price down to about $1,530 yesterday.
Most of the selling has been in gold futures or exchange traded funds backed by the metal. During the same period, retail demand for physical gold bars has surged.
Retailers have reported delays of up to 15 days on shipments. Markus Krall, chief executive of German precious metals retailer Degussa, said it was struggling to meet customer appetite for gold bars and coins and had turned to the wholesale markets. Demand is run-
ning at up to five times the normal daily amount, he said, adding: “We are being creative to find new sources but what is driving it all are the measures by authorities to stop coronavirus. This is so unpredictable.”
Rob Halliday-Stein, founder and managing director of UK-based Bullion- byPost, said the situation was unprece- dented. “Basically, we’re selling as soon as we get stock on location in secure vaults — but we’re restricted to what we can get hold of. It’s a bit like toilet roll.”
While London’s gold vaults are full of gold bars, they are 400-ounce sized bars traded by large banks, not the smaller ones that retail customers buy, which tend to be 1kg (35 ounces) or lighter.
“I don’t think you will find a kilobar presently in Europe and the US for love nor money,” said veteran gold trader Ross Norman. “It’s quite extraordinary"

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jennypenny
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Location: Stepford USA

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny »

I'm watching the gold market closely because I made a really big bet on gold (for me). I suspect demand will surge even further when China and other Asian countries come back online since retail sales account for 50% of gold demand during normal times.

Does anyone think the stimulus is going to work? Wrt the market, I mean. I wonder if the market will slump again once people realize that we aren't getting back to normal for a few months at least. I fear the next stimulus package will include lowering the age for medicare/SSI and a loosening of bankruptcy rules.

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

I think they are firing their bullets way too soon. The USA has just barely started to feel some economic damage now.
It seems inevitable that something additional will be needed further on.

I personally think the Fed lost an opportunity to raise more when times were good, now at zero but without much room to go further.
Plus there was the genius move of exploding the deficit after a 9 year amazing run of the economy, in order to provide some much needed* tax cuts to corporations that were already racking in all time high profits.

This puts you in a worse position than you could have been.
Europe is this bad place already, but our more stringent labor laws and much better welfare state should help soften the blow for what we hope will be a relatively short lived halt.

I think this will be much, much worse in the USA, where people have historically lower savings rates compared to Europe, take on more debt, and can lose their jobs overnight resulting in zero income and no health insurance, with no safety net.
$1200 one-shot is not going to cut it.

Fun fact: there are 205 million working age americans. If they spent the $6 trillion only putting cash in the pockets of these 205M, they could pay them a $1200/month salary for two years

*sarcasm

Lucky C
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Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

As good as yesterday's rally was, US stock futures are now negative despite the stimulus passing.

Here's a nice snapshot that shows that despite yesterday's rally the S&P500 did not even exceed Thursday's (intraday) highs.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... -9-4-rally

Something I find is lacking in the commentary of this decline is talk of the baby boomers who want to retire soon, who may start getting laid off in large numbers and who might feel they wouldn't have time to make up for big losses in their 401k. Same for those who recently retired near all time highs and might fear having to go back to work, and possibly not being able to find a job anymore. That would create headwinds for a quick V-shaped stock recovery, right? I've seen talk of the "elites" getting out of the market early and retail investors (mostly young people?) buying all the way down, but what are typical boomers doing? Just sitting passively like they're told to do, rebalancing into stocks, or are they panic selling yet?

IlliniDave
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by IlliniDave »

I'm the tail, tail end of the boomers and I'm buying into the decline, but only very modestly. Boomers who hold appreciably investment portfolios probably aren't doing all that much different than other cohorts. They should already be (like me) lowering, or have already lowered, their equity exposure coming to the cusp of retirement or beyond. I know some boomers who sold everything they had left a week after the first reports came out of Wuhan (hat's off to them, I thought they were being rash at the time). I know some who are buying into the decline. I know others who are just squeezing their eyes shut to help them endure. But the largest cohort I know among boomers really doesn't have much in the way of an equity portfolio at all to be worried about. Bigger fish to fry for a lot of people.

IlliniDave
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by IlliniDave »

jennypenny wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:11 am
I'm watching the gold market closely because I made a really big bet on gold (for me). I suspect demand will surge even further when China and other Asian countries come back online since retail sales account for 50% of gold demand during normal times.

Does anyone think the stimulus is going to work? Wrt the market, I mean. I wonder if the market will slump again once people realize that we aren't getting back to normal for a few months at least. I fear the next stimulus package will include lowering the age for medicare/SSI and a loosening of bankruptcy rules.
It'll go through the roof if the "digital dollar" survived the late add-ons in the stimulus negotiations (gold, that is). Unless they outlaw owning gold/precious metals and similar commodities too.

Not knowing the details of the stimulus yet, and exactly what you mean by "work". The gov't isn't much good at fixing things beyong one or two narrow swim lanes. Some of the things I've heard discussed will probably help a little. I like the tax holiday ideas for their simplicity, but those don't come with additional federal power so I'm sure they are out. The problem with 1,000s of pages of new laws is there will so may hoops and red tape barriers that the flow of money will not begin to trickle after it's too late. And there were lots of things rumored to be in draft versions from the House that are potentially long-term economy killers. I'm afraid so much of that will have made the final cut that we might look back at the stimulus as being more deeply damaging to the economy than the pandemic.

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