COVID-19

[Ego]

Possibly a way to tell Covid-19 before typical symptoms appear....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/heal ... ticleShare

Anosmia, the loss of sense of smell, and ageusia, an accompanying diminished sense of taste, have emerged as peculiar telltale signs of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, and possible markers of infection.

On Friday, British ear, nose and throat doctors, citing reports from colleagues around the world, called on adults who lose their senses of smell to isolate themselves for seven days, even if they have no other symptoms, to slow the disease’s spread. The published data is limited, but doctors are concerned enough to raise warnings.

[George the original one]

State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Sun, 22 Mar
- 1793 Positives
- 28879 Negatives
- 95 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 7 Benton (Prosser)
- 3 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 10 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 3 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 3 Franklin (Pasco)
- 18 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 21 Island (Coupeville)
- 6 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1040 King (Seattle)
- 18 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 4 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 4 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 107 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 1 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 33 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 480 Snohomish (Everett)
- 20 Spokane (Spokane)
- 1 Stevens (Colville)
- 11 Thurston (Olympia)
- 1 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 14 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 16 Yakima (Yakima)
- 165 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 14% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 15% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 45% Male
- 4% Unknown

428 new cases today. Added Adams, Douglas, & Whitman counties. Whatcom County (Bellingham) surged with many new cases. 11 counties remain without cases.

State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Sun, 22 Mar
- 2221 Positives
- 31712 Negatives
- 110 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Adams (Ritzville)
- 7 Benton (Prosser)
- 6 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 13 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 3 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 1 Douglas (Waterville)
- 3 Franklin (Pasco)
- 23 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 25 Island (Coupeville)
- 7 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1170 King (Seattle)
- 18 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 5 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 4 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 126 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 1 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 45 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 519 Snohomish (Everett)
- 29 Spokane (Spokane)
- 1 Stevens (Colville)
- 11 Thurston (Olympia)
- 1 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 48 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 2 Whitman (Colfax)
- 25 Yakima (Yakima)
- 117 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 14% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 14% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 4% Unknown

[George the original one]

My county in Oregon (Clatsop County) added their first case this morning too late to be in the daily report.

[1taskaday]

Iceland has tested it's population for Covid 19 extensively.

"Relatively speaking (per thousand people or per million people), the number per million tested in Iceland is almost 4× the number per million tested in South Korea."

50% of people tested had no symptoms.

It will be vital to get antibody screening up and running to find out who is already immune to Covid 19 without even knowing it.

[1taskaday]

That should have read

50% of people who tested "positive" had no symptoms.

I am fighting with a lethargic internet as the world is using it from home now...as well as all the ferocious gamers.

[SustainableHappiness]

Update from Ontario, Canada.

Cases increasing like the rest of the world.

What's being done:
All non-essential businesses closed as of tonight (Tuesday, March 24th).
List of essential businesses just released today (if you are looking for another data point on what may stay open in your country/state/province.

https://www.680news.com/2020/03/23/coro ... orkplaces/

We've been in a quarantined stay at home since last weekend March 15th, but efficacy is questionable, mainly due to line ups at various retailers (groceries/pharmacies/video games stores...)
Schools closed indefinitely in multiple provinces

What's Being Done to Help What's Being Done Not Blow Up the Country
Wage subsidy of 10% of employees wages up to $1375 per employee
All 5 big banks announced a mortgage relief program of up to 6 months for affected people (but the devil is in the details) and other stuff for and from the Canadian Mortgage Housing Corporation
Evictions are illegal for a while, the evictions courts shut down all active and future cases
New Unemployment Insurance Package up to $900 bi-weekly to be received if you don't qualify for normal EI
$300 more per child for the Childcare Benefit annually
Tax Credits -> GST up to $400 for low income individuals
TAxes postponed
6-month interest free moratorium on student loans
Business loans (I haven't explored the details)

Liberal party in power just tabled a bill yesterday that would allow:

The legislation grants Finance Minister Bill Morneau extraordinary new powers to spend, borrow and tax without having to get the approval of opposition MPs until December 2021.

That seems crazy...who knows?

Edit: I just read through the list of essential businesses...It's hard to see what isn't there, but looks like kind of a joke? Like they made the announcement to scare people more into not going out?

[vexed87]

I think I caught COVID-19 a couple of weeks ago, but the UK is not testing widely, only those admitted to hospital, so I can't be certain. I didn't felt very unwell, just a mild cold-like bug all of last week. First I noticed a sore throat, headache, a slight runny nose, a very short period of nausea, a tiny bit of chest pain with exertion, but the latter might have been purely psychosomatic. But mostly I was just feeling really fatigued. No coughing or fever though, so despite having virtually all the milder symptoms associated with the virus, according to UK guidance there was no need to self-isolate and I was forced to continue in work and potentially expose colleagues, some of whom have since reported possible symptoms and are also isolating. But as soon as DD came down with a fever last Monday, that meant 14 days of isolation for our household. DD is now 21 months, her fever lasted ~3 days, but a runny nose persists but that has eased today. I'm now on day 6 of 14 days self-isolation, my symptoms have pretty much resolved, except I'm feeling more tired than usual. Hard to say if that's down to an infectious agent, or just the strain on my mental health worrying about whether or not I had it, and if my loved ones might get really sick, but so far so good on that front.

I really hope I've had it, so I can get back out there without worrying, but antibody testing kits seem some time away. Fingers crossed the UK govt get fully behind mass testing ASAP. Testing is woefully inadequate here and is contributing to a lot anxiety for medical professionals and households alike.

[naturelover]

@Vexed - hope you both feel better soon.

The Olympics are postponed until next year - finally!

People in my area take social distancing very seriously. Doesn't hurt that this area has a large percentage of introverts. My neighbor sounds like he has it. Claims its allegories, but has all the symptoms. I had a tight chest and mild headache for a few days. It kinda of hurt to breathe, but maybe it was anxiety. Having work stress compounded the issue.

I'm optimistic that things will go OK here, aside from employment issues. The governor is supposed to give a message this week about business closures. I'm guessing they will be extending this practice for a few more weeks or months.

[Jin+Guice]

@vexed: I had similar symptoms, ending a week ago. They were very odd, I've never experienced mild cold symptoms that didn't progress or regress immediately before. Testing is also not possible here, except for the very ill.

I went for a walk in the FQ last night, it was totally deserted except for one or two other wondering people, a few residents walking their dogs and some homeless people. Kind of eerie to walk down a deserted Bourbon St. on a nice March evening.

[Zanka]

Sweden: Universities are closed but school is open for kids up to 16y. Fascilities for skiing is still open, they closed after-ski bars 3 days ago. Everything is still open, restaurants cant serve buffet but everything else is the same. People over 70 should stay at home and people should try to be careful but go on with their lives more or less as usual. No testing unless you need hospitalization "no need for it", health workers do not get tested, and the health- authorities think we will be up for a hard time but it will be fine. They recomended yesterday everyone to get out and get some sun, no need to stay isolated at home "you need som fresh air and sunlight).

Oh and they closed borders, but still open for europeans to get here (which is prob noone since everyone else is closed.

What do you guys think, we will be fine right?

[jacob]

@Zanka - That sounds very much like the UK/US strategy until https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf came out and changed their respective policies drastically after learning that the death toll would be in the millions. The argument was that expecting 70yo+ to self-isolate until it burns out would never work. (Besides, some younger than 60 still die and very many get hospitalized, so it still overwhelms the system.)

[Zanka]

@jacob Yeah, I am getting very worried. It is a huge gamble with peoples lives.

[fiby41]

Nation under lockdown for the next 21 days.
Indian Penal Code, Act of 1860, invoked that imprisons for upto 6 months.
₹150000000000 for bringing healthcare sector up to speed.
Commencement of next financial year postponed to June.
2 diagnostic labs have obtained approval for commercial production of testing kits that give result in 2.5 hours.

469
Active COVID 2019 cases *

39
Cured/discharged cases

10
Death cases

1
Migrated COVID-19 Patient

*including foreign nationals, as on 24.03.2020 at 08:15 PM

Testing is 15 per million. About 100000 of the in-house kits are expected to be manufactured in the first week.

[Dream of Freedom]

There are some interesting cultural innovations going on with social distancing.

Small Nebraska town gathers by 'cruising,' honking, playing music The town of Oakland, Nebraska, "wanted to get out of the house in a safe way.
A video sent to KETV shows people driving past each other, honking and playing music.

"This is what you do in a small town when you got coronavirus going on, whole town just comes out and cruises, social distancing," the driver is heard saying.

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEA ... id=US%3Aen

[Jason]

I imagine when this inevitably turns to road rage they'll jump out of their pick-up trucks and take baseball bats to each other's shadows.

[George the original one]

50% of people who tested "positive" had no symptoms.

That jives with what I've been seeing in Oregon numbers, where testing is limited. I suspect "postive, no symptoms" becomes "positive, with symptoms", but they recover in a week, like bigato.

[Ego]

@Zanka - That sounds very much like the UK/US strategy until https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf came out and changed their respective policies drastically after learning that the death toll would be in the millions.

FT but no paywall: https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd ... bea055720b

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. 

Is it possible that the US/UK strategy didn't shift because of the Imperial College model but because they realized the vast opportunity this presented to reshape society (never let a crisis go to waste) if they shut down?

[jacob]

Is it possible that the US/UK strategy didn't shift because of the Imperial College model but because they realized the vast opportunity this presented to reshape society (never let a crisis go to waste) if they shut down?

I've seen that one before. Never miss the opportunity of a good crisis. The problem I have with that is that everyone who presents it seem to have their own idea of what society will be shaped into now that "covid has made everything clear". For example, green optimists think that this will be the point where "humans realize all the horrible ways we've been hurting the planet and commence on a gentler path of respect for each other and nature". Yet, on the other hand national populists would say that "this is why globalism has failed and why we need to close down borders and move manufacturing of critical supplies back to the homeland". It's conceivable that governments think this is an excellent opportunity to drive through some measures that would otherwise be impossible or at least shift the Overton window. However, how can they be sure that it is they who will be the one's implementing their vision at the end of the day.

[Jin+Guice]

Anyone have an opinion on the malaria drugs that are being discussed as treatment? One of my friends who was an early warner of the virus has been talking about them for about a week. It doesn't look like any real studies have been done, but all preliminary results look promising. Now that Trump mentioned them, they are politicized and true information will be increasingly difficult to obtain.

[jacob]

@J+G - Darwin award candidates have already died or overdosed from self-medicating on them. That said, serious people are looking into whether they actually work on corona even if they can't cure stupidity. A side-effect of a certain genius promoting them as a cure has vacuumed the market thus reducing the ability to treat diseases where they've been proven to work such as malaria and lupus.