COVID-19

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Jason

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

thedollar wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:19 pm
She saw the doctor to get a vaccination - against what? :oops:
Hopefully it's The Herp. Give the world something else to talk about.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:13 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Sat, Mar 21
- 137 Positives
- 2338 Negatives
- 3 Deaths
- 437 Pending

Cases by County
- 2 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 11 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 9 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 3 Lane (Eugene)
- 19 Linn (Albany)
- 19 Marion (Salem)
- 18 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 42 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 4 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 13 25-34
- 41 35-54
- 75 55+

Hospitalized
- 43 Yes
- 82 No
- 12 Not provided
24 new cases. Pending tests have been removed from the stats (see next paragraph). Washington County's share of cases has increased from 31% to 34% of all cases in Oregon.

"As of March 22, 2020, we no longer include the number of pending test results. Those numbers are only available from the Oregon State Public Health Laboratory (OSPHL). The OSPHL serves as the first source of testing during an outbreak and as commercial labs come online, OSPHL increases focus on priority testing. Commercial labs have the ability to conduct testing on an industrial scale, but do not report pending results, so this number would not accurately reflect the number of pending results."

Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Sun, Mar 22
- 161 Positives
- 2864 Negatives
- 3 Deaths

Cases by County
- 4 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 12 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 10 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 4 Lane (Eugene)
- 19 Linn (Albany)
- 22 Marion (Salem)
- 19 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 55 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 6 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 13 25-34
- 49 35-54
- 91 55+

Hospitalized
- 43 Yes
- 88 No
- 21 Not provided
Last edited by George the original one on Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

Tyler9000 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:14 pm
Key word - propaganda. Keep in mind this is the same country that actively suppressed news of the virus for months, lied to the WHO about its transmissibility, arrested the doctor who originally reported it publicly before leaving him to die, and are spreading accusations on state news that it's a US bioweapon.

I get why they're trying to change the narrative, but I'm not confident it's going to stick once other countries have the luxury of time and energy to push back against their self-serving revisionist history.
I know what I would choose.
But people like simple narratives. The simple narrative is Trump has spent the last 4 years treating Europe as an enemy, China is sending us masks and experts.
Narratives have power

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

The bing map now includes county level details for the US. Note how the epidemic follows the standard path for such things. The first to be hit are the cities with global [air]ports that receive a lot of international traffic (also vacation spots). Then the disease travels inland to other bigger cities from there ... and then slowly makes it into the hinterland after that.

It will be interesting to see what happens in two weeks after all the springbreakers return to places all over the country from partying together in FL. Perhaps, this effect will be big enough to detect in the case stats 2-3 weeks from now as the virus has had time to incubate/infect family members.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

jacob wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:42 pm
The bing map now includes county level details for the US.
I like the county-level data, but they do a mediocre job at updating, at least they do for Oregon. Oregon data has obviously been county-level for weeks now as I'm pulling it off the state web-site and Bing is 1 day behind in reporting the numbers. I suppose there's some intrigue behind the scenes.

slowtraveler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

China literally gave the world the disease. I'd rather not get stabbed than have someone help me heal the potentially lethal wound after they stabbed me.

Wuhan held the world's biggest banquet 2 months after knowing of the outbreak. When doctors messaged each other to be careful about a possible disease, they get arrested. Such pathetic leadership there. I applaud the strong freedom fighters doing their best there but the ccp is a joke as a leadership. And now, people I love are scared of losing their businesses because of this. Seriously. Fuck China.

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

@slowtraveler and @tyler - this isn't about who's a good guy and who's a bad guy. I am only observing a (attempted?) geopolitical shift slowly in the making.

slowtraveler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

The shift has been a long time coming. It's a distribution of power. Asia as a whole will become more independent. Hopefully, we can all work together but the deception there is beyond atrocious.

What you saw was propoganda, I've been extremely close to China, it's not a place I'd ever want to visit. It's disgusting.

All my respect to Taiwan, they've handled this extremely well for how close they are. I sincerely hope they take back their country before the mainland does more damage to the world and the Chinese brand.

*None of these comments are meant to be taken as derogatory towards any ethnicity but a specific, very small group of people who claim to be communists but are just dictators. I feel angered that people believe their propoganda.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Lets put a halt on the blame-shifting and blame-gaming talks for 6+ months until the first one or two waves of the pandemic have run its course!

Right now, it's more interesting and relevant to focus on how the pandemic develops and what strategies work or has worked.

If anyone still feels absolutely compelled to work through the political fallout/consequences from this, take it over to this thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11256 ... and keep in mind that there are multiple nationalities reading along on the board. Also keep in mind that zoonotic infectious diseases require a complex system to occur, and just like the credit crisis, it's all too easy to put the blame on whatever particular aspect of the "elephant" that one personally dislikes, whereas in reality, it was a confluence of factors that can and will create another disease again at some point.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

+1

One recent novel killer zoonotic virus which spread to humans was due to a racehorse owned by very wealthy Westerners interacting with a bat.

I am taking two different courses very quickly to try to better understand stand this. One thing I can see already is terrible skew in the reporting in Michigan because around half the test results are coming out of just one hospital system’s own labs. I predicted the “official” state numbers today very accurately based on the hospital system’s numbers, but they are clearly way off of reality. As Jacob noted elsewhere, deaths are the only solid data. Second most solid IMO would be the numbers based on the virus mutation rate.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

The American Dental Association started recommending postponing all elective procedures a while ago. (DW should have had a temporary crown replaced the day after that went into effect.) I think this is to minimize spread and to preserve protective equipment like masks, etc. for shortages in the rest of the system.

If your dentist is still "operational", I'd get it done now. Call them and ask.

Hopefully, we have a dentist onboard here, but otherwise, I usually refer to https://archive.org/details/WhereThereI ... t/mode/2up ... and the other great one "Where there is no doctor" for useful low-tech treatments/methods.

1taskaday
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 1taskaday »

Possible hope for future :

The development of serum antibody tests for Covid 19.

These would be like pregnancy tests; very user friendly to use,with a result in 3 minutes.
A recent Nature article published 20th March 2020,"Covert coronavirus infections could be seeding new outbreaks" estimates "asymptomatic or mild cases combined represent about 40–50% of all infections". Chowell Gerardo.

Will there shortly be 40 -50% of different countries populations "unknowingly" immune to Covid 19 until their serum is tested for antibodies.

Testing for the Covid 19 virus itself is labour intensive and lengthy.
There is also insufficient testing kits world wide.

Does the possibility of being able to distinguish the immune from non immune offer hope?

Just a thought...

Also my timing to lose my 3 front teeth was unfortunate...no dentists available here either... everything comes to he who waits...

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:23 pm
State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Sat, 21 Mar
- 1793 Positives
- 25328 Negatives
- 94 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 7 Benton (Prosser)
- 3 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 2 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 9 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 2 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 2 Franklin (Pasco)
- 11 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 19 Island (Coupeville)
- 4 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 934 King (Seattle)
- 15 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 4 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 4 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 95 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 1 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 28 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 447 Snohomish (Everett)
- 16 Spokane (Spokane)
- 1 Stevens (Colville)
- 9 Thurston (Olympia)
- 14 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 13 Yakima (Yakima)
- 133 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 8% 0-29
- 14% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 14% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 50% Female
- 45% Male
- 6% Unknown
203 new cases adding Walla Walla County.

State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Sun, 22 Mar
- 1793 Positives
- 28879 Negatives
- 95 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 7 Benton (Prosser)
- 3 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 10 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 3 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 3 Franklin (Pasco)
- 18 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 21 Island (Coupeville)
- 6 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1040 King (Seattle)
- 18 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 4 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 4 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 107 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 1 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 33 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 480 Snohomish (Everett)
- 20 Spokane (Spokane)
- 1 Stevens (Colville)
- 11 Thurston (Olympia)
- 1 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 14 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 16 Yakima (Yakima)
- 165 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 0-29
- 14% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 15% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 45% Male
- 4% Unknown

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

@GTOO- Is that the first drop in growth for WA?

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Strange twist. Politically connected boss who typically does not bother employees on weekends made a special effort to get "Critical Infrastructure" passes to all employees on Sunday evening. Hum.

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fiby41
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Re: COVID-19

Post by fiby41 »

Metros closed. Article 144 invoked prohibiting assembly of more than 4 people in my state. International flights have been barred from landing.

There was an exodus of day labourers, skilled workers in the past week, going back to their own states by packed trains. At this point it's the 'high fliers' who pose a greater threat to public health than the 'illiterate masses.' Foreign returns breaching quarantine protocol and the police and vigilant citizens playing catch-up returning them to home isolation like kindergarten children who've lost their way.
The date until when you're supposed to stay home is stamped on the back of your palm, you can read it, how hard could it be?

President Kovind is quarantined as he came in contact with a member of parliament who partied with a wannabe actress who went to London on 3rd March and has tested positive. She has been charged with 4 counts by the police. Only silver lining is contact tracing seems to be working for now.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

NZ has moved to level 3 alert and goes to level 4 on Wednesday (Tuesday USA time). This will mean everything is closed except essential services. Police and NZ defence will be patrolling the streets to enforce compliance with requirements. Everyone is required to self isolate.

This decision came after discovering 102 cases now in NZ and 2 of them not traced to an external source.

NZ has also made any rent increases by landlords illegal.

Its difficult to say whether cases are increasing or its just the rate of testing increasing. NZ has been following an aggressive testing policy at about ten times the rate per capita of South Korea's testing regime.

I feel quite good about the changes. Historically NZ tends to be very nimble and makes law and policy change very quickly because its small. And because people in NZ are not scared of the govt. At worst people criticise it as "the nanny state" or "PC".

It feels like quick action is now being taken. I am just worried about the attitudes of some of the people flouting self isolation rules. But I am pleased its going to be controlled by police and military action now.

Hopefully it can be brought under control here. None of the 102 cases are in critical condition. At least NZ is well placed with its location to manage it and the govt is flush with money to inject into the economy.

It sucks that we are heading into winter here soon though. I don't know if there is any connection to the virus and cold weather but it just makes it feel much worse. It does make a practical difference in that we will be entering flu season simultaneously which adds to the risk and hospital usage. Im gutted my work has kicked me out before I got the flu jab. Kicked me out in terms of closing the office and I am working from home. But I dont think they are organising the flu shots anymore that we get each year. I wonder if there is any chance getting a flu jab privately. Not confident.

BMF1102
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Re: COVID-19

Post by BMF1102 »

Like Ego mentions critical infrastructure passes. My coworkers who are currently working at Fermi Nuclear have been given similar passes a couple days ago "incase of marshall law" so they can commute to the plant. I guess the tents and trailers are for the Plants critical personnel, operators, to stay on site if need be. A tradesman there for the outage actually tested positive monday-ish. All the fitters, boilermakers and millwrights on his crew were sent home to self quarantine for 2 weeks. They are now checking everyone's temperature at at the gate before going through security. Interesting times.

Lucky C
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Lucky C »

The Johns Hopkins tracker took away the graph of cases outside China & recovered cases overlaid onto the confirmed cases graph. Also took away the ability to change the graph to log scale. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

As of yesterday the cases outside China were continuing to grow much much faster than recovered cases. Something like 3.4x more confirmed cases in the past week but only 1.4x recoveries. Since cases have been growing steadily about 3x per week for several weeks I would have expected recoveries to keep pace in growth though with numbers delayed a few weeks, so this lack of recoveries was concerning to me. Is the explanation that many countries are just not reporting recoveries like China was? That would be make sense and be a good reason to remove recoveries from the graph.

Edit I see now that recoveries are being reported, at least according to the tracker, for every country with >500 cases except USA, Canada, and Turkey.

bostonimproper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bostonimproper »

Last edited by bostonimproper on Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:04 am, edited 1 time in total.

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