COVID-19

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ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

Italy 2,158 dead out of 27,980 infected. 7.7% mortality rate. Yes, their population might be aged. But consider:

- The Lombardy region's health care system is close to the best there is in a world-wide context (unsure how it ranks in developed countries)
- Italy was Europe's first hotspot. Thus, there are still regions of the world which can assist with humanitarian shipments. No one is getting 31 tonnes of medical supplies from here on.
- So far, with the exception of Iran where we have no reliable figures, the hotspots have been either in developed, well-resourced nations (SK, IT, HK, SG) or, if you want to pull teeth about China, in a country which has a vast base of resources and the ability to mobilize it (I don't see anyone else shipping 10k medical personnel from another part of their country to a hotspot area, bulldozing roads to secure quarantine, or ordering producers of PPE to roll, or else).

Given this, I will not be surprised if developing countries come closer to a 10-15% cfr rather than the previously hypothesized 3.5%, or even Italy's 7.7%. This holds particularly true for developing countries with ageing populations, such as the former eastern bloc. I am still keeping my fingers crossed for Africa, India, Pakistan, etc., where healthcare infrastructure is weak but the population is on average younger.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Consider that the numbers quoted are only detected cases, so mortality rate calculated by deaths/detected cases is way overstated. The more people become ill, the lower %age of them is tested and we might soon be in a situation when only the 15% who require hospitalization and go to the hospital are tested (since everyone else, i.e. the 85% with no to mild symptoms just stay home and self-isolate). So, if 'true' death rate is 3%, but you divide 3/15 and not by 100, you'll get a 20% mortality rate instead of 3%.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@Bankai -

We can already estimate the true death rate in some circumstances based on South Korean numbers. However, until countries start doing random sampling of say 5000 people regardless of whether they're healthy or not, we won't know. Now, they're probably not going to do that because the answers they want now are more localized/the spread is still localized, so it would be a waste of tests. Anyway ... we'll know better in a couple of months or when the infection is fully saturated whether that's in controlled quarantine zones or entire countries if all they did was close the borders externally.

Here's my best estimate based on SK.

If the ICU system is not overwhelmed, then the true case fatality rate is 0.7% (for a country with SK demographics and health stats). We know this because SK has not dropped the ball and also tested widely and inexpensively. Since they have not tested everybody, this is of course an upper estimate, but it just might not be all that much lower than this(?)

Since only half of ICU patients survive, the fatality rate with an overwhelmed ICU system (most don't have access) is 1.4%.

Since 15-20% of those admitted to the hospital ends up in ICU, it kinda depends on what would have happened if they couldn't have have gone. That I don't know, so I can only give the possible range. If they all survived, then the true number stays at 1.4%. If they all died, the CFR increases to 7-9.3%.

The correct number of ultimate deaths for the countries where the system was/gets swamped would be somewhere between 1.4% and 9.3%.

That's out of everybody---if everybody could be tested---at the end of the day(*). Keep in mind that while 20 and 30 yos have a high survival rate, a non-trivial percentage still end up in the hospital insofar it's still available. If seriously sick, triage measures also prioritize the young and healthy, since they already have the best odds.

(*) The end of 2021 more likely.

J_
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Re: COVID-19

Post by J_ »

@Jacob, I think you are right with your estimate end of 2021! The outbreak can/will rebounce ( see China) Its helps to make good assumptions how things will develop. And then to make your (my) own plans based on a realistic outlook. It helps too to make yourself a realistic mental picture.

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

@C_L- Curious where you see 41k on that site? The total tests given is showing ~27k on my end. Either way, happy things are trending upwards.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Augustus wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:58 am
Can we clarify what you mean by hospitalization. Will they die without it? That would make the mortality rate 20% when hospitals are overloaded...
I don't think we know those numbers yet (because of the iceberg factor). At least I can't think of a way to extract them from the data. We should know soonish since countries which have run out of testing capacity and are pursuing a mitigation strategy ONLY tests those who make it to the hospital. Presuming that people don't die at home, we can extract the rate based on the "official number" vs the "shadow number".

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

@AnalyticalEngine- The director of the virology lab at U of Padua (in Italy) suggests that as few as 10% of those infected show any symptoms. He tested over 3,000 people in one of the initial clusters.

Here is the translated summary of the report: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239 ... 77760.html

Snippet below:
According to Crisanti, the director of the virology lab of U Padua, as little as 10% of #COVID2019 carriers show any symptoms at all. He sampled repeatedly the entire 3k+ population of Vo ', one of the initial clusters.

He managed to virtually eliminate the disease in Vo', by testing not only the symptomatic patients to confirm they had the disease, but all of their contacts in the preceding days. These were then tested even if they did not show symptoms. And in fact 9/10 of positives did not
show any symptoms. It is these asymptomatic carriers that were doing the bulk of the spreading, at least after the initial measures were put in place. This means social isolation alone is not effective, or at least not efficient. He +- eliminated the disease in Vo' by :
1} confirming the disease in symptomatic walk-ins 2) testing all possible contacts, REGARDLESS OF THE PRESENCE OF SYMPTOMS 3) securely quaranteeing all positives. Now the only people in Vo' with Covid19 are asymptomatic carriers in isolation.


The original report in Italian: https://www.sanitainformazione.it/salut ... lo-veneto/

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Are any other countries doing this? <UK manufacturers to regear factories to build ventilators for NHS>

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-ma ... 09609.html

There are also plans to turn (soon empty anyway) hotels into hospitals. Also, all non-essential operations postponed for 3 months.

thedollar
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thedollar »

What do you guys think about temperature and humidity?

It seems most cases are located within climates with lower temperatures: https://imgur.com/VjbZA0v

Summer in the northern hemisphere could help wipe it out.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3551767
Last edited by thedollar on Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.

JuliusFC
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Re: COVID-19

Post by JuliusFC »

A local comp sys grad has created a tracking site that does seem only Canada-focused at first, but he does provide global statistics as well in map and table form if you scroll about a third of the way down.

https://www.covid-19canada.com/

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fiby41
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Re: COVID-19

Post by fiby41 »

108 Indians have contracted the disease.
In tabular form https://www.mohfw.gov.in/
Graphs http://covidout.in/

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Thanks for the link, @theanimal. It would mean this disease behaves somewhat like polio if it were true. That being said, given this is in somewhat contradiction with other sources, I'm going to hold out until it's peer reviewed before I consider it to supersede other sources.

From a behavioral standpoint though, it's helpful to act as if everyone is an asymptomatic carrier and that you are also an asymptomatic carrier if you've been in public/exposed though. It really means one should practice extreme social distancing even if your friend etc isn't showing symptoms. And even if you catch an asymptomatic version, it's concerning because you wouldn't want to be a carrier and infect others.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

thedollar wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:55 am
What do you guys think about temperature and humidity?
It might be an assist, but looking at the worldwide map of where cases are not stopping (Brazil, many countries in Africa), I don't think it will stop COVID-19 spread.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Augustus wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:58 am
Can we clarify what you mean by hospitalization. Will they die without it? That would make the mortality rate 20% when hospitals are overloaded, which seems much higher than what we're actually seeing. I'm not talking about seeing a Dr and getting medication, I mean actually needs to be in a hospital and will die without it.
To me, patients are hospitalized when the admitting physician determines they need help beyond bed rest. Some patients can, for instance, survive pneumonia on their own, but it's not easy and a physician is almost always going to admit a patient showing pneumonia symptoms. I believe the patients for COVID-19 that have breathing difficulties are the ones being admitted otherwise there's little reason to prescribe more treatment beyond bed rest.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Went for groceries this morning. Towards the end, while near the checkout registers, there was a couple hugging. As I passed by, I overheard him say, "I feel awful. I'm all hot and sweaty." Eeeek! We scurried home and washed. Twice. Yes, I think that was my last trip for groceries for the foreseeable future.

***
Safeway produce guy was setting things out and we chatted a bit. He says the lead time for ordering produce is 5 weeks and they're selling twice what they normally sell. His shelves are empty by the afternoon.
***
Orowheat bread guy was also setting loaves of bread on the shelves. He says their warehouse is empty and the supply chain is thin at this point, no trucks scheduled to arrive for a couple days. Not much help there if you want bread tomorrow and didn't buy today!

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

California governor Newsom decreed a moratorium on most foreclosures and evictions.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Hospital bed occupancy rate in Oregon averages 65%. Quietly announced yesterday, the hospitals are clearing their schedules of non-life-threatening cases to make more room for COVID-19 cases and the state is in the process of acquiring 1,000 more beds in the next two weeks to be deployed from a central pool. There are about 600-700 ventilators available.

A relative of mine in the Portland, Oregon, area went to the ER on Sunday and was diagnosed with two bloodclots in the lungs and one in a leg. The ER docs wanted to admit my relative, but were told no beds were available. A Monday appointment gave her blood thinner meds instead. At this point, it's not clear to me whether that hospital was actually full up or if the bed was already being reserved for COVID-19 cases.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Ego wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:23 pm
California governor Newsom decreed a moratorium on most foreclosures and evictions.
Multnomah County (Portland) did the same for evictions due to failure to pay rent; the rent still has to be paid when the moratorium ends. Evictions for cause will still happen. Leases are not given the same latitude.

Undoubtedly, some renters will misunderstand this and think it is rent forgiveness rather than deferral. Also expect some landlords to dream up "for cause" actions.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by ZAFCorrection »

ZAFCorrection wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 4:09 pm
What if it became mandatory for everyone except people having some infrastructure-critical jobs to stay inside for two weeks? Seems the virus spread would basically stop. Would society fall apart in that amount of time?
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... on/608065/

It seems getting people to lock up for a couple of weeks is turning into one of the plans afterall. But is there some point in the infection rate curve where it is more useful than at other times? I would say that everyone in the US staying home for two weeks would have been a horrible idea back in January, but maybe it is a less-worse idea now. The above article seems to suggest the UK government is trying to optimize in that direction.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@ZAFCorrection --- If everybody lock themselves up for a month, that would solve it right there. If they lock up together, say 2-6 people, the virus could bounce around with one person getting it a week later, say, and so that would be 5 weeks. And so on. The more people quarantine together, the longer the quarantine needs to last. South Korea locked up early---in practice by testing massively and chasing every vector down---which fixed the problem until 1 person ("patient 31") got out of quarantine and started two new clusters.

Mathematically... the earlier the quarantine the better, simply because it has a higher likelihood of working (catching everybody) when the number of infections is low. That would be a variation of contact tracing which worked on SARS-1. I doubt humans are intelligent enough to do this on their own though. Well, they clearly aren't. Besides, the economic system is clearly not set up for it---as we see now. But if it was, this would be the easiest way.

Practically... follow the Chinese/Italian approach. Close the borders of as small an area as possible. A county. A city. A city or apartment block. Then let it burn out (nobody tests positive) inside the block. That block is now green. This releases the block to join an adjacent block that is also green. And so on for larger and larger areas. People can freely move inside their blocks but not pass into outside red blocks. If an area fails a test, it fractures and is declared red again. Rinse and repeat.

A self-quarantine is simply creating a block that's the size of one's home. A similar strategy could be followed insofar the humans/human control systems (culture, regulations, government) work. They did in China and South Korea where "the curve" was broken.

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