COVID-19

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bigato
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

The number of confirmed cases in my city went from 3 on friday to 8 on saturday and then 14 on sunday. All the new cases were brought from the outside by people travelling. Apparently there's no confirmation of local transmission yet. Gyms have been prohibited to open and student's free pass on buses is blocked. I'm going to work now, hoping that I'll be presented with a contingency plan to work from home, but I'd not be surprised if not. Later today I have a session with my therapist. There are a couple of labs in the building, the type of place where people would go test themselves in case they have the symptoms. Not sure if I'll keep going to the therapist once a week, or if she has some idea about interrupting her work for a while. I'll talk to her about it.

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C40
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Re: COVID-19

Post by C40 »

thrifty++ wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:46 am
Its funny how we can have a collection of big concerns like global warming and how we are going to manage sustaining pensions into the future for future generations, and then a giant curve ball like this knocks everything sideways and those concerns seem less imminent or not concerns at all.
We're playing whack-a-mole. Big time. And in many ways that we don't even recognize. But we keep on consuming, and measuring/valuing the wrong things, and fucking stuff up... so more moles come more rapidly. We have to spend so much effort on reducing or solving problems that we created (or that are such a big problem) because of how we're living. Now, a huge portion of human's work and time spent is aimed at reducing chronic issues caused by how we started living over the last 10,000 years.

Here's an example of one that stood out me because when I learned about it, I remembered an exact conversation I'd had on the subject, and at the time, I thought "boy, we are lucky these days".

A few years ago my dad's teeth were rotten. He got them all replaced by surgical implant. Cost him $55k and it was a big, long ordeal. He was severe pain up until he had them all pulled. I remember saying to him "imagine if you'd lived however many years ago when there was no dentistry. What would happen to people? They have your pain the rest of their life? They die? Go crazy? Pull out all the teeth? More recently I learned that tooth decay was nearly non-existent among people eating traditional diets like hunter/gatherer or only early/partial agriculture. It became a thing only after the adopting a grain/starch/sugar heavy diet.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

That is the interesting part because just because the focus changed to COVID19, it doesn't mean that any of the other risk factors went away. Our technology driven civilization can usually handle one crisis at a time but can it handle two? For example, suppose Miami or any of the eastern seaboard port cities get hit with a cat 5 hurricane in late summer or fall ... while people are supposed to stay at home in quarantine. Well, I'll just leave it at that ...

J_
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Re: COVID-19

Post by J_ »

Our survive method of the moment is: sit still. We can use this time to think how to change to a more lean (logic/ economic) style of living.
for me: still less use of fossil energy, only doing sport with human efforts, plant based food only.
and how to communicate this with other people.
Your thoughts?

sky
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »

Please include wind and sails in the ideal lifestyle scenario.

enigmaT120
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Re: COVID-19

Post by enigmaT120 »

It's a good time to live in the woods.

So many asymptomatic people, I read as high as 80 per cent of the cases!

But it made me wonder. I've always thought I don't catch colds. Is it possible that I do and just don't get sick? And spread it? The COVID-19 asymptomatic people can spread it just fine.

I guess I won't be finishing up my brewery passport in the Portland area with my friend. It expires the end of the month. But I hope we can go snow shoeing or something outside.

I did experience shortness of breath and fatigue yesterday. 7 miles of running hills can do that to me.

Last I saw still no cases in Eugene, though my friend and his babies are sick with something. Sure just as I finally learn to make new friends again I can't go hang out with them!!!

enigmaT120
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Re: COVID-19

Post by enigmaT120 »

A new report isn't real optimistic:

https://www.theonion.com/top-u-s-health ... 1842297607

Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

Maybe I'm missing the obvious, but you know that's The Onion right?

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

enigmaT120 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:59 am
Last I saw still no cases in Eugene, though my friend and his babies are sick with something. Sure just as I finally learn to make new friends again I can't go hang out with them!!!
Still a mystery to me why Lane County has avoided having any reported cases. I can only assume people just are being good about staying home if ill and/or not calling their doctor.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3551767
This paper investigates how air temperature and humidity influence the transmission of COVID-19. After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases. Using the daily R values from January 21 to 23, 2020 as proxies of non-intervened transmission intensity, we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Finally some honesty from the Trump admininstration regarding COVID-19!
"We are at a critical inflection point in this country, people. We are where Italy was two weeks ago in terms of our numbers," U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams told Fox News. "When you look at the projections, there's every chance that we could be Italy."

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19
Except west coast USA is transitioning to the dry season...

bigato
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

Social distancing could have devastating effect on people with depression
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... n-n1157871

black_son_of_gray
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Re: COVID-19

Post by black_son_of_gray »

San Francisco essentially locked down starting tomorrow. Rest of California Bay Area expected to be similar.

"Shelter in place" for next 3 weeks. Wow, that came on fast.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/art ... 135087.php
Counties are shutting down all but the most critical operations. Places that attract clusters of people, like gyms, nightclubs or bars, will have to close down. Restaurants must serve only take-out or delivery orders. Hospitals, grocery stores, banks and pharmacies will remain open.

The order calls for all “routine medical appointments” and elective procedures to be canceled or rescheduled.

Daycare centers and veterinarians will remain open with some restrictions, as will laundry services. Emergency services, like police and fire operations, will also continue.

All non-essential gatherings of any size are now banned.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Figured I'd check on hospital bed availability in my little town of Seaside, Oregon. The hospital currently operates 25 beds, but has been licensed in prior years for as many as 56 beds... don't know if they're currently licensed for the 56 beds, but it indicates a possible overflow potential to have that many if there is adequate staff to serve.

Seaside population is 6707 per a 2017 estimate and was 6514 at the 2010 Census. Nearby Cannon Beach population is 1728 per 2017 estimate and 1690 at the 2010 Census. Have to also throw in the even closer community of Gearhart, population 1593 per 2017 estimate and 1462 at the 2010 estimate. Sticking with the 2017 estimates, the Seaside hospital serves 10,028 people.

If 50% of the people come down with COVID-19, then that's 5014 cases. 20% of them will become serious cases = 1002... okay, we're waaay over capacity by then!

Let's try the other direction, how many cases are the maximum that can be handled? Best case, 56 beds times 5 means 280 cases which is a mere 2.79% of the local population. A more realistic expectation is that the local hospital will be out of capacity when less than 1% of the population is infected.

bigato
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

We now have cases of local transmission in my city

Augustus
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Augustus »

George the original one wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:24 pm
5% or less require hospitalization based on what I've read. Serious just means you feel like crap at home. Age is also a major factor, if the population skews younger, then fewer people will need hospitalization.

Augustus
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Augustus »

C40 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:43 am
In the good old days (10,000 years ago) we'd die from a bad hunting season or cold weather before needing to buy a new set of teeth :D We are extremely lucky to be alive in this time period.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@GTOO - Hang on! I'd estimate it differently. SK with wide testing and the situation under control (having an experienced government in charge must be nice) has a CFR of 0.7%. Lets presume they found everyone who was infected so this is the true CFR. This means that Seaside will have at least 0.007*6707=47 fatalities.

Roughly only half of who goes into critical survive, so this means that 2*47=94 ICUs are needed. (ICUs are as far as understand needed for 1-2 weeks... it takes about 1 week to die w/o a fancy ventilator) Of those getting admitted to hospitals, about 15-20% end up going to critical. If the rest get normal beds, then the system needs 94/0.15*0.85=532 regular beds.

Seaside, therefore, needs 94 ICUs and 532 beds insofar the curve is not flattened. Once the ICU count is exceeded, ~everybody who needs it but doesn't get access dies.

So if the entire population is infected, 47 will die after using 94 ICUs; 532 will survive on a regular hospital bed; and the rest (6707-532-{47:94}) ~ 6100 will survive in home quarantine with various levels of symptoms... everything from nothing-burger to non-hospitalized pneumonia.

(This is the best I can do in terms of estimating iceberg effects. Also, I don't know what the odds of regular hospital bed vs at home treatment is. Hopefully, there will be a better handle of this soon. Without widespread testing and more countries sorting themselves out and arriving on the other side, it's rather hard to know.)

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Augustus wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:49 pm
5% or less require hospitalization based on what I've read. Serious just means you feel like crap at home. Age is also a major factor, if the population skews younger, then fewer people will need hospitalization.
80:20 ratio from China was serious=hospitalization.

Of reported cases in Oregon, about 50% have been hospitalized as of last Wednesday. Unfortunately, that number is no longer being reported now that commercial labs are reporting test results.

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