COVID-19

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7Wannabe5
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Location: Clinton River Watershed

Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

I calculate/estimate my personal risk as 6%. X 25 years expectancy = 1.5 years. Therefore, I plan on self-isolating as long as possible. If my more extroverted BF gets ants in his pants, I will go solo. Obviously, relatively young people with lung issues have the most to lose.

AnalyticalEngine
Posts: 295
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

I must have an extroverted side of myself that I wasn't aware of because I've been trying to self-isolate for a whopping 3 days now and it's driving me crazy. I gave up and went to Walmart at 7am out of sheer lack of stimulation. It was panic buying hell even this early. Fortunately I just needed garden stuff and no one was over there.

I'm thinking I might have to come up with different jogging routes along different trails to not go insane. Luckily there are a lot of those in Denver. Obviously I need to avoid the busy ones, but I'm hoping the sun will nuke the virus such that not-too-busy outdoor areas are safe.

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

It's not just the lost lives. Long term health effects are largely unknown but there are studies being developed which show the adverse effect on lungs, heart, liver, kidneys and other organs. One test group in Wuhan had 1 in 5 people who had breathing complications after walking too fast. It's not just a matter of dying or not.

Liver https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 3.931766v1
Testis https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20022418v1
Kidney https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20021212v1

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

@Ego - I'm concerned about the economic impacts as well. Most of the population can't afford to hunker down for 6 months, and this is really going to hurt small business. As a young healthy person, I've been trying to support the business I can while I can. I'm trying to be more generous with tipping and such as well.

If the government can do certain programs like emergency loans for small business, increased unemployment, etc, that will help. At least a pandemic doesn't destroy infrastructure. I'd say best case scenario the government can delay taxes/give benefits/etc to help float the economy along for two quarters. By then the virus may be less widespread and things can (hopefully) pick up where they left off.

That's the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is left as an exercise for the reader.

Jin+Guice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

@Seppia: How is the quarantine treating you? How introverted do you consider yourself? What are the rules like about going outside and walking around?


I'm realizing I'm psychologically unprepared for how much the quarantine is going to suck after not really quarantining for a few days. Walking outside in areas where social distancing is possible should be pretty low risk correct?

My gut response is telling me that I've contracted the disease, even though this is mathematically unlikely. My symptoms are very mild but slowly getting slightly worse. It's frustrating that I can't get tested. Rn I'm not worried for myself (young, no health problems, very mild symptoms), but I'd like to know if I'm a risk for spreading the illness or sick with something else and therefore at risk for being immunocompromised.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

Im puzzled as I look at the latest stats whenever I get up in the morning, a lot changes around the world while NZ sleeps. But this time I see zero deaths and zero new cases in Italy.

Is this some new strand of hope? The complete lack of new cases, not even a couple, makes me doubtful though. Is this more a situation where there is no reporting for some reason?

Seppia any thoughts?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

bigato
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Location: Brazil

Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

J+G: if you are indeed infected, every step you take outside your door, you are increasing chances that someone else will get infected. Quarantine in the case of an infected actually means quarantine, staying put indoors. Remember, there were confirmed cases of transmission from 4,5m of distance. Also, it's possible that a wind could carry the virus more than we think. Also stuff happens, like you may find yourself with people near you before you know, or you could touch something that someone else will touch in a few minutes... I'm sure a lot more possibility could be imagined. If you are actually worried about being infected, the best way possible to decrease chances of spreading it is staying put.

Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

jacob wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:10 am
@Seppia - How's the supermarket situation over there and how did it evolve over time? Empty shelves? Shortages?
The first day of complete lockdown, it was similar to what I hear is happening in the USA, with long lines and people panic buying.
Luckily, we were already well stocked by then so I was able to just avoid supermarkets for a couple days.
Now, at least here in my area (Trieste, northeastern italy, which is not nearly as bad as Lombardy) there's no problem in finding food and basic supplies.
There are zero masks available and zero hand sanitizer or wipes, but there's plenty of bleach and soap available, so not a real problem if someone has an average IQ
Jin+Guice wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:31 am
@Seppia: How is the quarantine treating you? How introverted do you consider yourself? What are the rules like about going outside and walking around?
Walking outside in areas where social distancing is possible should be pretty low risk correct?
In terms of intro/extroversion I'm kinda on the edge. (ie: depending on the day, my Myers Briggs profile is either ESTJ -maybe 40% of the time- or ISTJ -60%-).
I have a wife and kid, and feel ok. We've been lucky as the weather has been spectacular, and we live in a relatively large complex of buildings (maybe 200 units total) which has a private mini-park so we were able to get out a bit.
Plus, if you fill out a form, you're allowed to go out for a run or a walk, but you need to keep the distance and cannot stop/sit/gather with others.
Once per day I either go out by myself or with the stroller.
It's not hard to avoid people, these pics are from less than two hours ago, around 4.30pm. It's again the main square in the city.

https://ibb.co/Pzm51Yt
https://ibb.co/dfZcP7S

Feel better man
thrifty++ wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:32 am
I see zero deaths and zero new cases in Italy.

Is this some new strand of hope?
The data is updated at 6pm italian time (so any time now, I just checked and they're still not updated).
The last number available (the 21k infected since the beginning, 17k actually infected) is from the 14th of march and it's a +20% vs the prior day.
Deaths aren't climbing as fast (+14%)
Last edited by Seppia on Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

J_
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Location: Netherlands/Austria

Re: COVID-19

Post by J_ »

@Ego: thanks. if I read your Graph comparing Korea/Italy well, the infected are mostly younger people.

Triages (selecting people with most change to live longer in panic situations) are likely to choose for the less in age. That sounds logic and seams widely accepted, but is it?
The life-chances for an obese 35 or a healthy and fit 65 person are to my opinion beter for the 65 one. How can the general opinion be changed?

Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

2800 new cases, just announced now

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

@seppia thanks - my god crikey! I knew it was wishful thinking. I just looked at the stats

bigato
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Location: Brazil

Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

In Rio de Janeiro, which is the second state with the most cases in Brazil, all theather, movies, sports events were closed. Then everybody went to crowd on the beach, including old people. We are so fucked up. I think I'm selling all my stocks on monday morning.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Those are all more than a month old now. I've kept an eye out for more updated studies. There have been many studies dealing with comorbidities of liver or kidney disease but little on Covid-19 causing liver or kidney problems. Maybe I am missing them? They must be doing the studies.

I am trying to puzzle out the motivation for the blackout. Presumably they would want young people to know these risks so that they would be motivated to avoid infection and spreading the virus. Maybe there are no risks for young/healthy people? Maybe they don't want to spook healthcare workers? Any other thoughts?

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

French and German ICU physicians have noted that a common thread among young people needing ICU admission as a result of COVID-19 is that they have been taking large doses of NSAIDS.

https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/corona ... s-20200314

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

@Ego- No I haven't seen anything more recent either. The increased NSAID use may be due to the ineffectiveness of those against this virus. My stepdad has been taking tylenol/advil etc to try and break the fever but it has not worked. It is day 10.


Regarding Italy, it seems there's 3,590 new cases and 368 deaths. There is no decrease in growth rate. The hospitals don't appear to be able to manage this at all. This is not good.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

This from Francois Balloux, a computational biologist. An important point that should not be forgotten
Health and the economy are closely linked. The correlation between per-capita GDP and health (life expectancy) is essentially perfect. If the covid-19 pandemic leads to a global economy collapse, many more lives will be lost than covid-19 would ever be able to claim.
Image

and
The most plausible scenario to me is for the covid-19 pandemic to wane in the late spring (in the Northern hemisphere), and come back as a second wave in the winter, which I expect could be even worse than what we're facing now.

Predictions from any model are only as good as the data that parametrised it. There are two major unknowns at this stage. (1) We don't know to what extent covid-19 transmission will be seasonal. (2) We don’t know if covid-19 infection induces long-lasting immunity.

Seasonality is difficult to predict without time-series. Comparison between regions for the covid-19 pandemic suggests some seasonality, but likely less than for influenza. This would be roughly in line with other Coronaviridae (common cold and MERS).

How long immunity lasts for following covid-19 infection is the biggest unknown. Comparison with other Coronaviridae suggests it may be relatively short-lived (i.e. months). If this were to be confirmed, it would add to the challenge of managing the pandemic.

Short-lived immunisation would defeat both ‘flattening the curve’ and ‘herd immunity’ approaches. Devising an effective strategy would be even more challenging under low seasonal forcing. It would also considerably complicate effective vaccination campaigns.

The covid-19 pandemic is an extremely challenging problem and there are still many unknowns. There is no simple fix, and poorly thought-out interventions could make the situation even worse, massively so.

horsewoman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by horsewoman »

Ego wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:55 pm
French and German ICU physicians have noted that a common thread among young people needing ICU admission as a result of COVID-19 is that they have been taking large doses of NSAIDS.

https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/corona ... s-20200314
This seems to be fake news. There was an audio clip widely shared over WhatsApp in which an unnamed Austrian woman claimed that this information came from the Uniklinik Vienna. The Uniklinik gave out a statement that they have not done any studies on this nor given out any information.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

@Ego - I understand that the economic impact could be severe however isn't it better for everyone to bunker down for a couple of weeks and see how this virus develops. If in a fortnight's time everything isn't that bad then maybe we can just practice social distancing for a while.

There are a lot of unknowns in relation to the virus however I heard two experts talking on the Sam Harris podcast and one comment I remember was that one of them believed that a vaccine will be more like a vaccine for the measles rather than a vaccine for the flu. His point was you may only need one or one and a booster shot as a vaccine for this virus for protection for life.

I think if we can flatten the curve of this thing via social distancing and isolate older people (in my opinion they should self-isolate) then we can get through this thing without too much impact. Sure the markets will crash but they will also recover. The virus isn't like Ebola and we don't have to wipe out large swathes of the population but there is the potential for significant human impact.

My personal opinion based on the information available now is that this virus isn't that bad if you can somehow minimize the virus spreading and therefore not overburden the health care system.

My jiu-jitsu instructor didn't even mention the virus the other day and appears to completely not give a shit. This attitude to me is where the potential problem lies. If too many people don't give a shit it could spread out of control and the health system can breakdown.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Cases in Las Vegas have finally exploded. They've had 3 up until Thursday and as of last night, they shot up to 16. 3 cases up in Reno area and one more in, I think, Sparks. So they went from 4-5 state-wide to 20 in about 2 days.

A racer I know sent a Saturday night selfie from Frontier Casino's outdoor mall (downtown Las Vegas) and it was jam packed with people <shudder>. He's a hyperactive extrovert and knows he'll be isolating with his family at home come Monday since schools are closed. His wife, here at home, had stronger words.

My interest in Las Vegas was an autocross to happen in 2 weeks, but it was canceled by the organizers.

chenda
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Re: COVID-19

Post by chenda »

I don't want to add to the doomsday fire but 'The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire' by Kyle Harper is a topical read. Short review here: https://acornabbey.com/blog/?p=11384

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