COVID-19

[RealPerson]

I just received a message that the entire country of Italy is in lockdown? Sounds desperate and not sustainable.

[theanimal]

True.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... atest-news

All of Italy will be placed under the lockdown conditions thus far imposed upon the so-called “red zone” in the north of the country, the Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte has said.

The restrictions will include banning all public gatherings and preventing all movement other than for work and emergencies. According to the Reuters news agency, he has said the decision was necessary to protect Italy’s most vulnerable citizens and that the right course of action now is for people to stay at home.

......

The announcement in Italy spells out the restriction of movement of more than 60 million people.

The decree provides for banning all public events, closing cinemas, theatres, gyms, discos and pubs, funerals, weddings and all sport events, including Serie A matches. All schools and universities will remain close until 3 April

[Bankai]

Draconian. However, current figures for Italy suggest at least 5% CFR (9172 cases vs 463 fatalities) and it can get worse since not all cases are resolved. The potential loss of 5% of the population (3M people) can justify much more than movement restrictions. I expect this will pave the way for other countries to follow a similar suit, which in turn will result in an even more economic slowdown and drops in markets.

[jacob]

The median age in Italy is 47.3 (a country of old people) vs the median age in China which is "only" 38.4 (similar to the US). That's half the population of Italy in the "non-trivial risk" range, so it's not surprising that CFR is higher given similar(?) levels of health care system pressure. Compare to Iran with a median age of 30.3 where the CFR is 3.3%.

In that regard, worries about Africa might be exaggerated since median ages tend to be rather low, mostly under 20, where COVID is a non-issue (or at least far from the worst public health problem). => It could become a reservoir.

[Seppia]

To clarify: this is not a curfew type lockdown, where people aren’t allowed to leave their homes or walk around.

It restricts:

Movement across municipalities: you’ll need to show papers certifying a work or family matter that are impossible to re schedule.

Any large public gatherings

Restaurants, bars, canteens etc will close at 6pm and tables must be a minimum of 1m apart

I’m addition to this, almost anybody who can will be working from home indefinitely.
Where I work, anybody with a laptop and an internet connection at home MUST switch to home office.

Edit: I definitely think this is the right move. Overreacting is what you want to do in these situations.

[chenda]

@Seppia - how is this being enforced, are there police at checkpoints between the provinces ?

[Seppia]

Yes, police and Carabinieri (military police) checkpoints.

[sky]

@sky: nothing about (special) nutrition? I know that you are in micronutritions, are you extra in vitamin C?

Good point, I need to eat greens!

[theanimal]

Lab finds that virus can travel further than safe distance advised by health agencies and can stay in air for up to 30 min.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... e-and-stay

The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.

The researchers also found that it can last for days on surfaces where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if an unsuspecting person touches it and then rubs their face and hands.

The length of time it lasts on the surface depends on factors such as temperature and the type of surface, for example at around 37C (98F), it can survive for two to three days on glass, fabric, metal, plastic or paper.

[George the original one]

Oregon Health Authority as of 10a Sun, Mar 8
- 14 Positives
- 100 Negatives
- 53 Pending
- 203 Currently Monitoring
- 290 Completed Monitoring or no risk

Cases by County
- 1 Douglas
- 2 Jackson
- 1 Klamath
- 1 Marion
- 1 Umatilla
- 8 Washington

Cases by Age Group
- 1 17 or younger
- 1 18-24
- 0 25-34
- 5 35-54
- 7 55-74

I like how OHA keeps adding new statistic categories!

Oregon Health Authority as of 10a Mon, Mar 9
- 14 Positives
- 165 Negatives
- 52 Pending
- 226 Currently Monitoring
- 291 Completed Monitoring or no risk

Cases by County
- 1 Douglas
- 2 Jackson
- 1 Klamath
- 1 Marion
- 1 Umatilla
- 8 Washington

Cases by Age Group
- 1 17 or younger
- 1 18-24
- 0 25-34
- 5 35-54
- 7 55-74

Hospitalized Cases
- 5 Yes
- 9 No

Cases Involving International Travel
- 3 Yes
- 11 No

[George the original one]

State of Washington published count as of 4p Sun, 8 Mar
- 136 Positives
- 1110 Negatives
- 18 deaths

Cases by County
- 1 Clark
- 1 Grant
- 1 Jefferson
- 83 King
- 1 Kittitas
- 4 Pierce
- 31 Snohomish

Cases by Age
- 3 0-19
- 6 20-29
- 13 30-39
- 17 40-49
- 19 50-59
- 27 60-69
- 13 70-79
- 27 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 70 Female
- 51 Male
- 15 Unknown

State of Washington is still playing games with their reporting. Clearly, though, they still don't have the infections in King County contained.

State of Washington published count as of 2p Mon, 9 Mar
- 162 Positives
- 1149 Negatives
- 21 deaths

Cases by County
- 1 Clark
- 1 Grant
- 1 Jefferson
- 116 King
- 1 Kitsap
- 1 Kittitas
- 4 Pierce
- 37 Snohomish
- 0 Spokane

Cases by Age (damnit, they switched to percentages from absolute numbers)
- 2% 0-19
- 5% 0-29
- 10% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 15% 50-59
- 21% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 19% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth (damnit, they switched to percentages from absolute numbers)
- 55% Female
- 42% Male
- 4% Unknown

[steveo73]

Although I'm seeing my nurse friend this evening who works at a hospital where they've had corona cases. I ask her if we should still meet, and her response was that's it's a 'piddling virus' and it's all being overblown and theres nothing to worry about. So I do know what to make of it all...

I'm starting to feel this is the case now. I think the problem is more the fear rather than the reality. I think it's going to be contained a lot more than people's expectations are at this point plus I don't think it's that bad for the vast majority of people.

[AnalyticalEngine]

And yet, Italy just basically shut down the entire country. We've had both China and Italy mass quarantine their people, and I have a hard time believing these two vastly different countries would halt their entire economies just to stop some old people from dying.

I would love for it to not be that bad and also be contained, but it's just hard to believe it's not that bad when entire nations are voluntarily killing their economies.

[steveo73]

Overreacting is what you want to do in these situations.

I think so as well. It's not going to be a long term action. It's better if possible to try and contain it as much as possible.

[steveo73]

And yet, Italy just basically shut down the entire country. We've had both China and Italy mass quarantine their people, and I have a hard time believing these two vastly different countries would halt their entire economies just to stop some old people from dying.

I would love for it to not be that bad and also be contained, but it's just hard to believe it's not that bad when entire nations are voluntarily killing their economies.

I think both point of views are compatible. I don't think it's that bad from the data and anecdotal stories that I've read. I also think it's a new virus and if we can contain it ala China that we should try to do that.

[AnalyticalEngine]

Oof, we just had our first case of community transmission in Denver. Things are about to get interesting.

[theanimal]

University of Washington Virology has been conducting tests starting last week. ~98 have tested positive out of 850 in the past 2 days of samples. Almost all are from Washington. They update numbers daily on their twitter page.

[den18]

Lab finds that virus can travel further than safe distance advised by health agencies and can stay in air for up to 30 min.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... e-and-stay

Shit. That is not good news. Thank you for sharing theanimal. That shatters a lot of assumptions, need to reevaluate my plans.

What can we do to mitigate risk based on these new findings? I wasn't planning on wearing a mask before, just maintaining distance, but if the virus can not only travel 4.5 meters but also can stay in the air for 30 minutes, that is a whole different ball game. It feels like a mask is essentially a requirement now.

Do we think it can travel that far in buildings or are the findings limited to buses, trains and the like? Either way, it staying in the air, instead of immediately falling to the ground, sounds very problematic for avoiding infection in public places.

[AnalyticalEngine]

Do we think it can travel that far in buildings or are the findings limited to buses, trains and the like? Either way, it staying in the air, instead of immediately falling to the ground, sounds very problematic for avouding infection in public places.

I can't recall the exact paper, but there was a study where they sampled various areas in a patient's hospital room. They found evidence of the virus on one of the air vents, suggesting that the virus had been floating through the air and drifted there with the air currents.

To be honest, I really want my job to go full WFH already. I feel like the only way to stay safe is to stay inside. Unfortunately with public health, we're only as strong as our weakest link. And with so many people not taking this seriously, it amplifies the risk of catching it in the wild.

[theanimal]

@Den18- The authors of the paper concluded that they think it could travel in an enclosed space like a building with air conditioning. So it seems like as long as there is air movement, the virus can travel over a relatively extended (30 min) period of time. They did conclude that it was not only important to wash hands but to have/wear a mask as well.