COVID-19

[thrifty++]

I have heard a couple of times that some experiments are being done with HIV medication to combat Covid19.

Its popular in the gay community for people to take whats called "PREP" - Pre Exposure Prophylaxis. Its a pill you take each day which prevents you contracting HIV. These days HIV seems quite a non event in the western world and seems as though its dying out. I have never wanted to take the prep as I hate sticking extra drugs into my system - but am now starting to think about taking it if there is a dual purpose - which prevents the contraction of Covid19. A doctor friend of mine was talking about it also.

I cant seem to find any good information about this online - anyone else happen to have heard about this?

[Dream of Freedom]

Lobster market pinched as prices plummet because of coronavirus outbreak

In most years, North America ships millions of pounds of lobsters to China for the Lunar New Year celebration, Bloomberg reported. But this year, the coronavirus outbreak in China meant limited imports and a lot of lobsters stuck behind in Canada and the U.S.

https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiig ... id=US%3Aen

I smell an opportunity for a cheap(er) and delicious meal!

[AnalyticalEngine]

@thrifty++ - That is correct. They are doing some phase 3 trails with antiretrovirals to see if they can help with coronavirus. If successful, these drugs could be given like tamiflu in early stages of infection to reduce morbidity and mortality.

HIV infection is commonly treated with ART - "Antiretroviral therapy." PREP is the same drugs as ART except at a lower dose. These drugs work by blocking HIV's ability to hijack cell genomes. Being a retrovirus, HIV has a single strand of RNA that it has to insert into a cell's genome. Except human cells don't understand RNA; they only understand DNA. So HIV has to make an enzyme that turns RNA into DNA. ART/PREP works by blocking this HIV enzyme, thus stopping it from infecting a cell.

It's believed the same mechanism could work on SARS-CoV-2. While SARS-CoV-2 is a regular RNA virus and not a retrovirus, these medications might still work on it by blocking the RNA genome in the same way. Hence why they are doing some trails to see if this would really be effective.

I'm not a doctor, but I don't know if I can suggest taking it to prevent COVID-19. It might help to have some of these ART drugs on hand in the event you believe you've been exposed. Like Tamiflu, if you take them immediately at infection onset, it has a chance to reduce morbidity/mortality. But ART/PREP drugs also have side effects, and we don't know for sure if they're effective yet.

I also expect there to be a lot of shortage of antiretrovirals in the near future if they do in fact prove to be effective. This could potentially harm HIV patients who would have a harder time getting access to the medications due to shortages. Hopefully they can massively scale up production.

[Ego]

It has been reported that 70 of the 180 employees of the skilled nursing facility in Seattle where the outbreak occurred are showing symptoms of Covid infection.

[AnalyticalEngine]

Jesus, that nursing home situation is just so awful and tragic. I feel so bad for all the employees, the residents, and their families.

[Sclass]

@sclass, I agree that something may impede the growth rate. The most likely impediment is quarantine/isolation.

Hey, I take back what I said...if I can do that. Her analysis will probably track for long enough to really mess things up for us. The force that usually messes up predator prey models is you run out of prey. Like no more DNA for COVID 19 to hijack. So really this is a very ugly situation.

For instance, it won’t take much to mess up the ERs in LA. I actually have a lot experience with those because I took my mom in many times during her last two years of life. Usually for pneumonia. It was crowded. Twice we got transferred away from Kaiser DTLA to the San Fernando Valley or to Culver City because there was just no room for her. And this was under normal conditions.

When she did get a bed I’d pace around. Tons of old people in gurneys getting attention. Few young people. Few empty rooms and beds. Getting admitted to the hospital from the ER was another hurdle that would take a day of waiting. I guess that is when we got transferred.

The system has no capacity beyond the regular flow. It is optimized for the hum drum day to day admissions. I think the point of the exponential twitter feed was to say this system will be easily overwhelmed in a couple of months. I actually think it could happen sooner. She gives the hospitals way too much credit.

Looking back on some predator prey models I did for college numerical analysis class I recall there being coupled rates as well as resource limitations that caused reversals in population growth or decline. You’d get exponential for a period then you’d get a crash or an oscillation. It was kind of eye opening getting beyond a simple N(t) = exp(t) solution with a little bit of incremental iteration on a computer. Although I am dreaming of something like a Singapore effect slowing down the virus I’m afraid it’s going to be more like running out of victims or reducing mobility of victims because sick immobile people cannot easily transmit disease. Perhaps a fear term coupled with a late overproduction of fashion masks used in daily wear like in SARs Hong Kong can create an inflection.

Or worse, the rise in cases breeds a population of Jack boot government squads that round up and eliminate the prey.

That being said I’m starting to get scared.

[fiby41]

34 confirmed , 15 suspected. Passengers arriving from China, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Hongkong, Vietnam, Nepal and Indonesia would be segregated from other arriving passengers.

[Seppia]

Evidence keeps piling up.
https://apnews.com/921ad7f1f08d7634bf68 ... SocialFlow

"The White House overruled health officials who wanted to recommend that elderly and physically fragile Americans be advised not to fly on commercial airlines because of the new coronavirus, a federal official told The Associated Press.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention submitted the plan this week as a way of trying to control the virus, but White House officials ordered the air travel recommendation be removed, said the official who had direct knowledge of the plan. "

[ertyu]

If this thing kills approx 18% of the 80+ people it infects (source - a tweet screenshot on r/coronavirus) and it's going endemic, actuarial tables/life expectancy might change. We now need less of a stash, FI/ERErs!!

[7Wannabe5]

I am 55 with history of severe asthma which is particularly triggered by respiratory infections. There are currently no documented cases in my region. My plan is to continue working/living/organizing in urban area for 2 more weeks. Then I will go to rural area where I will be living in a shed in the woods. I believe I will have an additional week or two in the rural location during which it will still be relatively safe to go to Walmart and stock or gear up further etc. There are two rural hospitals within hour drive of this location. Does this seem like a rational plan?

[Seppia]

Why not now?
What is the advantage in delaying?

[Ego]

Report on Covid from the Italian Society of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care:

“It may be necessary to place an age limit on entry into intensive care. It is not a question of making merely value choices, but of reserving resources that could be very scarce for those in the community primis more probability of survival and secondly to those who can have more years of life saved, with a view to maximizing the benefits for the greatest number of people “

So, I will ask the same question again. Imagine that your city or town is experiencing what Lombardy is experiencing. What tools do you want?

[ertyu]

@7w5, go now. this shit will erupt all at once - it seems like you have time until you don't.

@ego: oxygen concentrator.

[Seppia]

@Ego: the freedom to decide I can hunker down at home for a month in a relatively remote area.

[jacob]

Looking back on some predator prey models I did for college numerical analysis class I recall there being coupled rates as well as resource limitations that caused reversals in population growth or decline.

Take a look at the SIR-model. It's very similar to the Lotka-Volterra model except it has an extra equation that removes recovered part of the population from the dynamics. Also SIR presumes that the human prey is not going to outbreed the spread of the virus. In reality, that's inaccurate for some diseases. These are the childhood diseases and that's the reason they come in waves and why herd immunity is a thing. If would also be off if immunity is not permanent.

[jacob]

Apparently there was some controversy between the CDC and the White House on rolling out the new CDC guidelines for people who are particularly vulnerable, namely people over 60 or those with relevant health conditions with the CDC wanting something stronger ...

“The clear message to people who fit into those categories is; ‘You ought to become a semi-hermit. You’ve got to really get serious in your personal life about social distancing, and in particular avoiding crowds of any kind,’” said Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University expert on infectious diseases.

Presumably, what's currently on the CDC's site is the resulting compromise?

[Jason]

This Chinese pensioner is over 100 and beat back on that Corona like it was trying to swipe his monthly check out of his mailbox.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11107818/ ... t-disease/

I think the old people dying of it are thinking "finally, I can get the fuck out of this nursing home."

Of course this whole story could be complete propagandist bullshit but at least its inspirational.

[jacob]

https://www.instructables.com/id/The-Pa ... entilator/ for the DIY types.

[Ego]

If you think that infection is likely to be unavoidable to you, then you have two choices: you either try to get infected as soon as possible while the hospitals are not yet overwhelmed around you, or you try to delay getting infected as much as possible so as to not find overwhelmed systems once the virus find you.

+1

Personally I am operating on the assumption that it is unavoidable

Aggressive community mitigation may slow the spread. Meticulous self-isolation may delay me from getting infected. But in the end....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_constraints

That said, I bought dented tubs of hand sanitizer yesterday at the swap meet for $4 each. As I was paying, the guy in the stall next door bought a bunch. I returned later to see that he was reselling them for $30 each.

[Lucky C]

ignoring any negative feedback terms

One sinister negative feedback term, which in some countries may trump all beneficial negative feedbacks, is the limiting of testing due to limits on test kit availability or governments trying to keep testing down = # of cases down. But this will not send a good message since it will increase fatality as a percent of cases, right? Not if people die having never been tested and the death is due to pneumonia, respiratory failure, organ failure etc. and cannot be confirmed to be COVID-19. One might even wonder if a political candidate is up for reelection, and he values that reelection more than he values the lives of his citizens, he might be inclined to keep these case and fatality numbers as low as possible as long as possible in order to not lose supporters - who will believe to the grave that this is just another flu that the mainstream media is overhyping.