COVID-19

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Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

bostonimproper wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:34 pm
Exhibit A: Japan quarantines travelers coming in from South Korea (and China), leading to increased tensions. But the only reason we know of SK being a hotspot is because they are aggressively testing unlike, say, the US.
To be kept in mind: there is currently an underlying hate between japan and South Korea, following trade tensions.
It escalated around Q1 last year IIRC, and it’s really bad as it has trickled down to the population. For example, South Koreans are actively boycotting Japanese restaurants and avoid buying anything that’s Japanese.

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fiby41
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Re: COVID-19

Post by fiby41 »

All visas for Iran, Italy, Singapore and China stand cancelled.

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Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

Numbers exploding across Europe. As we imagined, it was just a matter of testing.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Just the math please...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236 ... 03909.html
Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits. We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies) We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.

Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled.
She goes into more detail....

J_
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Re: COVID-19

Post by J_ »

My strategy to cope:
besides the "normal" precautions: I strive to maintain an optimal health through nutrition, a good body-condition and rest (sleep). So if the virus eventually contacts, my body will fight it on its own. A kind of ere-way.

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Sclass
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Sclass »

Nice article. While they look down their noses on mere mortals who cannot understand exponentials, I look down on them for not adding another term or two to their differential equation.

This is an oversimplification that leads to alarming growth. While it may model reality for some period, nothing grows like that forever.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

@ego - Thanks for sharing that. I agree her calculations are pretty back of the envelope, but they're still important because it highlights just how dangerous even a little "exploding" can be.

In other news, reading the CDC's 2007 guide for pandemic influenza, they only really suggest canceling schools and events for category 5 (CFR > 2% aka Spanish Flu level) pandemics. Yet we've seen extremely dramatic things, like canceling SXSW, moving comic con, etc. And we've also seen this at the same time our public health officials keep trying to reassuring us that the CFR is "only" 1%. I'm willing to believe that the CFR is only 1%, but I've yet to see any proper data on this. I read the paper Dr. Fauci of the NIH published to the New England Journal of Medicine about the CFR "only" being 1%. Yet he basically only says "assuming there are a lot of asymptomatic and mild cases" etc etc. Without any references or math to back this claim up, it's basically like saying "assuming this disease is mild, then this disease is mild."

This is in direct contradiction to what WHO said on their joint investigation into China. They said that they don't believe there is actually an iceberg, that the CFR is 2% (or 3.4%!!!), that only 1% of people are truly asymptomatic, etc. Italy is saying that 10% of all patients need to be hospitalized. The private sector is acting like this is a category 5 pandemic. So the way public officials are downplaying this is, to put it generously, confusing.

I realize they're just trying to prevent panic and implement damage control, but it's getting frustrating because of all the contradictory messaging.

CS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

That thread is great but it doesn't even take into account a major factor of how much staff we are losing due to lack of testing.

This is a huge problem:
https://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/quar ... 0110149805

I have a niece who works in a managed care home. She delivers medicine to them all. She could sicken them all. It's setup as an almost perfect distribution system.

Also, it has been found in an air-conditioning duct.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... rch-shows/

Nothing grows forever, but July just might suck...

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Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

Italy jumps by 1150 cases today, deaths rise less than proportionally to 200-something.
We tested more than 25000 people, healthcare system in Lombardia (the region most affected, where Milan is) is under severe stress.

One of the few things that work in this country is the healthcare system, very happy about the response.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

@sclass, I agree that something may impede the growth rate. The most likely impediment is quarantine/isolation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/worl ... -news.html
It was not immediately clear whether the driver who tested positive in New York City drives a yellow taxi or works for ride-hailing services like Uber or Lyft. The man, 33, walked into St. John’s Episcopal Hospital in the Far Rockaway section of Queens on Tuesday and reported flulike symptoms. He went home and returned later when his symptoms worsened, an official said.

He tested positive on Friday night, prompting more than 40 doctors, nurses and other workers at the hospital where he has been isolated to go into self-quarantine and seek testing, officials said on Saturday.
40 healthcare workers offline. How long can the quarantine hold?

JustAGuyReally
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Re: COVID-19

Post by JustAGuyReally »

Is anyone keeping tabs on the safety of domestic air travel within the United States right now?

Is it still safe to fly to the East Coast from Chicago?

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

It's as safe as any other human activity that involves spending hours within 6-8 feet of other people. Going shopping. Going to the gym. Going to a party. Going to work. It's not the planes that increase the risk. It's sustained proximity to other [sick] people and personal habits like hugging, kissing, handshakes, touching one's face after touching other things, eating [uncooked] stuff, etc. ... basically any way the virus can get into one's face.

The only totally safe action is social distancing and handling stuff that other people have touched as potentially hot. For example, when I empty the mail box, I open all letters, etc. and then I immediately wash my hands.

Flying is just how this disease moves around the world, fast. Flying more isn't exactly helping anyone. For example, lots of countries got hit as vacationers returned from skiing in Northern Italy. The greater risk [to yourself] would be in spending time in an epidemic area; the greater risk [to others] would be leaving such an area. Keep in mind that it takes a few weeks AFTER an area has been thoroughly infected before it starts showing up as a hot spot.

Will
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Will »

This is a very good and informative thread, I've been reading it since the beginning but never had anything relevant to add, being a complete layman with regard to medical stuff.
Here in the Netherlands the number of cases recently has been recently taking off (188 as of today). Most cases here have been imported from Italy and not that many (50 or so) have been transmitted by community infections in the Netherlands at this moment.
Before COVID-19 reached the Netherlands, I made the plan to start stocking food and supplies as soon as the number of cases in Europe reached 1,000 (which I already did a couple of weeks ago when the shtf in Italy). Also, I promised myself that I would stop travelling to work when the number of community transfers in the Netherlands reached 100. Officially we haven't reached this point yet. But I am doing commutes by train three times a week between two of the biggest cities in the country, and though I am being very careful during these commutes, they are a real risk. At my job I'm usually interacting with 10-20 people a day, not all of which I expect to be very hygienic/careful with this stuff. What would you do? I could easily stay at home with a 'minor cold' during the next week, since our health agency officially asked people to do so. But I'm doubting that current risk level is high enough to warrant this.

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Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

If you are afraid, definitely stay home with minor signs of cold.
HR are terrified of potential litigations so they will instruct all managers to play it ultra safe.

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Seppia
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Seppia »

Italy locks down Lombardia
It’s not a Chinese style lockdown (you can still get in/out if you prove you have pressing personal or work needs) but still.
Lombardia is home to 12 million people out of the 60 million in italy.
Milan is the “capital” of Lombardia region, which is the powerhouse of Italian economy (the equivalent of NY + California in the usa)

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

Will wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:26 pm
What would you do?
I have struggled with this over the past couple of weeks as well. Stepping out, it seems the problem arises because our normal, automated decision-making breaks down in these circumstances. We have automated making decisions based on a certain set of assumptions about how the world is: namely, normal. But now, the world is not normal.

It is difficult to see this because people are not yet dropping dead immediately out the window. But we're in a different paradigm that requires different habits and different criteria against which to test our decisions. Here is an example from a different paradigm change: when the world wars broke out, the winners were those who left behind all their belongings, picked themselves up, and immigrated to matter the cost. The question, "do I take my belongings and move" now has a completely different premises on the basis of which you arrive at an answer. Thus the answer is different. The winners are those who (1) recognize what the new paradigm is about and (2) confidently and decisively take action in it in spite of how uncomfortable it feels to make decisions against what we are used to as "rational" and "normal"

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Speaking in terms of exponential growth and ignoring any negative feedback terms, the case doubling time for the world ex-Chine is 4 days.

The current ex-China count as of Sat Mar 7th is 25000 so starting with that, we can predict the future...
caseload ~ 25000*exp(daysfromtoday*ln(2)/4) or 1 week = 84k, 2 weeks = 282k, 4 weeks = 3.2M, 6 weeks = 36M, 8 weeks = 409M, ... with the world population maxing out at T+73 days from now.

Should be noted that the doubling time in China is 21 days on account of having more negative feedback terms in the system at this point (quarantine, longer history of testing). Thus expect the doubling time to increase over time. This curve would thus be an upper limit.

Insofar the future is trending towards China and nothing gets better than the Chinese measures are at this point, then we can take T_2=21 days as a lower limit, which looks less scary! In that case caseload ~ 105000*exp(daysfromtoday*ln(2)/21) ... where it will take 68 days to hit the first million and about 11 months to reach the world population.

However, presumably the Chinese doubling time numbers are still improving? If so, the spread could slow even more. However, with vaccines not expected for the next 12-18 months, this is definitely taking it right to the edge.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

jacob wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:12 pm
However, presumably the Chinese doubling time numbers are still improving? If so, the spread could slow even more. However, with vaccines not expected for the next 12-18 months, this is definitely taking it right to the edge.
The questions to me are:-

1. Can the rest of the world slow the spread of the virus ala what China appears to have done.
2. China is going to start relaxing the lock down soon/now and will the virus start spreading again ? A girl at work is Chinese and her dad is a teacher who is expecting to start school again soon.
3. How bad will the virus be from a mortality perspective ? Is is with better health care likely to remain below 1% or will it be higher than this. I think the Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of about 2.5%.
4. How quickly can we develop an effective vaccine ?

I think the answers are going to happen over the course of the next couple of years and hopefully it won't be that bad but I think the unknown is freaking people out.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Image

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

That epidemic curve is extremely not reassuring. :?

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