The next rate cut seems to be based on the further development of infections of COVID-19, as the FED said.
Total Cases of COVID-19 as a percentage of the world population is very low.
But the stock market crashed in the last two weeks.
So I was wondering, how it's gonna be?
How does the stock market change, if % of total cases increases?
So far the chart shows nothing especially.
I'm wondering if the stock market bottoms first before total cases tops, or vice versa?
Woke up to see that TLT had popped up 5% overnight , so I sold half of my shares to lock that in. That's like getting 4 years worth of yield in a day. Yes, please.
The 1- and 2- year CDs that I bought last summer now return nearly 2X the US 30Y Treasury. What a world...
It's trading at multiples of good italian banks (at book value, 5% dividend with 50% payout, PE 10).
I agree from a Macro standpoint a rate cut does not make any sense.
It seems like the USA really want to fall in a liquidity trap, maybe they don't want to leave their european and japanese friends alone
@wolf - recession can be caused by people's perception of the situation and not necessarily the situation itself. And recession means lower revenues, earnings projections miss and as a result stock crashing. Markets are also all about the future and currently clearly expect things to get worse. It looks like 'reality' lags the market by some time as it's not currently so bad as to justify the drop. But there'll be a time when large %age of the population will already have had the virus and even though cases will be still increasing, the market will start looking to recovery in the near future. So the bottom could be a few weeks before the peak of epidemy - that's assuming no new developments in mortality rates etc. Before market bottoms, there are always individual stocks which resist general decline quite well and start going up before the general market bottoms. Watch out for these as they will be future winners.
@LuckyC - I think it's mostly dead [in the long run, so 10-20 years]. 1 Institutional money is pulling out (ethical investing). 2 New discoveries are going down. 3 This seems more like a trade on oil prices than anything.
If I can play devil's advocate:
1- hasn't stopped cigarettes from being an incredibly lucrative investment in the last 20 or so years
2- this may actually bring oil price up if you believe oil will play a key role for humanity in the next 50 years
3- for XOM or Chevron, sure. But some oil majors (Shell above all) are planning for a future where oil is less relevant. Shell is as much a natural gas company as an oil company today
DIS as a long term dividend growth play. Although most quality stocks still seem expensive it's back to 2015 pricing and I feel like deploying at least some cash...
CCL as a value play. It's probably going to fall even further and if a recession hits, its currently massive dividend is likely going to be cut completely. I'm betting that it'll survive and that I can sell with profit after some years. Current P/B ~0.7.
Confused as to why MMM is down. Expected it to skyrocket with the increased demand for masks.
Also bought some DIS at these prices. Previously sold at after a nice gain but it's getting into a great price for the quality of the company. This stock dominates media.
Can anybody also explain why Netflix has less earning per share with a multiple of share price when Disney already has so much content that it can repackage via live movie versions, games, all that into more money but Netflix must start from scratch and has generally much lower quality content. I mean Disney has well over half of the top selling movies most years. Keeps breaking box office records. It seems to have more growth potential than Netflix. So why the assyemtric pricing?
As an up-all-night shift worker. I feel obligated to point out to you all as you wake, US futures trading overnight hit the breaker limits. Seems the Russian/Saudi oil pissing match had bad timing. Should be an interesting day as I sleep.
Does it feel like GAZ time to you guys yet or should i wait more. I am smart enough to recognize that climate change + secular rates low + corona and the subsequent worldwide fiscal stimulus + all the buyback + gvt debt that needs to be inflated away = russian resource/commodity/mining stocks, but not smart enough to sort out which ones and when
Edited to add: south africa, argentina and chile potentially, too
If it's not clear, thinking long-term hold here. 20+ yr time horizon
FTSE100 opened 8.7% lower and is still 6.6% down over 3 hours into the day. It needs to climb another 110 points today to avoid official bear market.
Bankai, let's say that you have cash to invest. What would be the signs for you that it is time to enter the market? Either to buy an index or individual stocks? Time is no issue, could be in a month, 6 months, a year, two years, 5 years.
Does it feel like GAZ time to you guys yet or should i wait more.
If you believe in momentum, don't buy things that are going down in price. If you don't believe in momentum, you need to do a lot of analysis to determine whether you should own it or not. Either way, if you use a word like "feel" when talking about opening a position, in my opinion you're already off to a bad start.
, so I sold half of my shares to lock that in. That's like getting 4 years worth of yield in a day. Yes, please.
