Investments Trade Log

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Lemur wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:02 pm
Used money to buy more Walmart stock.
Walmart, was, timing wise, the luckiest investment that I bought and sold (I've never sold most of my stocks).
I bought in in 2015 for $58 per share, almost the bottom, and sold it a couple EDIT years (not days) later whan it hit $98, close to a peak.

Sometimes we do get lucky
Last edited by Seppia on Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

classical_Liberal
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by classical_Liberal »

I sold 2/3 of my US I-Term Treasuries in 401K today(about 4% of total net worth) and left as cash. 10-yr is below 1% yield and I just don't see US going negative like Europe/Japan. Very little potential upside left, IMO. I'll hold out for buying opportunities as the market evolves.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

@cL - The duration of the 10yo is 9years, so at ~1%, there would still be 9% upside left with a ZIRP. Check out TLT over the past 1 year.

classical_Liberal
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by classical_Liberal »

@Jacob
Right, assuming complete ZIRP on 10-yr. I don't think it'll get that low. I did hold onto 1/3 in case I'm wrong, it's happened before :D.

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Bankai
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai »


black_son_of_gray
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by black_son_of_gray »

Over the last few days I've been really mulling over when I want to sell my TLT as well. As @classical_Liberal said, I'm not sure there's too much juice left to squeeze, and I'd rather be a little early than a little late. We're already at yields unprecedented in the history of the US, right (at least, at the long end)?

Bull argument: stocks more likely than not to keep going down, and LT bonds are classic safety that people rush to. Also, very likely that the Fed cuts more. In the near term at least, this seems to be a relatively safe place to be. Potential upside best case: maybe 20%.

Bear argument: At some point-I'm not sure when-investors are going to start balking at the government deficit/debt, and what once was "safety" is going to look risky (you mean you don't want to give the government your money for 30 years for no return and a high inflation/interest rate risk?). I'm guessing the kind of extreme fiscal measures that will be taken to deal with the fallout of the coronavirus will blow out the deficit in a dramatic, never-before-seen way... at the same time that tax revenue tanks because businesses are failing and people aren't working and trade is broken (tariffs). Either investors realize that one day and demand more yield for the risk, or the government tries to print its way out of its problems->higher interest rates. Potential downside worse case: easily more than 20%. If yields/rates spike up even a few percent, this gets ugly fast.

classical_Liberal
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by classical_Liberal »

@BSOG
Not only are yields the lowest in history, but inflation is the highest since 2011. It may even tick up a notch in March and April if we have some supply issues from China, and if people are really stocking up due to corona virus fears. Plus the rate cut. 10 year at sub 1% already looks like -1.5% real yield to me over the medium term, more if inflation increases. Anyone playing even a semi-long game can't like that. I think refuge will be sought in gold vs treasuries due to this and the factors you pointed out. We are still well below historical highs there.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Bankai wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:21 pm
He seems quite optimistic:

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights ... arks-memos
Marks is always a great read.
I follow a relatively simple approach that has been working for me.

In normal times I have a cash cushion and invest monthly all my savings
In times where I consider that stocks are high, I save a Pty if my savings into cash and build some dry powder (been doing it for about a year or so)
When the stock market crashes, I invest 1/3 ed of the dry powder when the market falls 10-15%, then another third when it falls an additional 10% and the last third after an eventual other 10%.

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

@Seppia Out of curiosity I did a little math. In the event of a -50% bear market your always-invested portion will lose 50% and your spare cash will lose 36%. Not saying -50% is likely or not, just wondering how that would play out.

Looks like the global recession is on for 2020 based on PMIs around the world - strongly declining before even COVID-19 hit. Gold miners' momentum continues to lag gold itself and it's reasonable to think that will continue in a global recession, so now I have more IAU than gold miners (small amount only in GOLD = Barrick Gold Corp). If gold is rising during better economic times it may make more sense to hold Newmont (NEM) as that is the only one in the S&P500 so may be subject to more passive buying than the other miners. Newmont also recently raised its dividend.

My equity exposure is tiny now. I can SWAN with my cash though USD strength fading is a concern. Might exchange some for Euros or a beaten down emerging markets currency. Don't want to catch a falling knife though.

wolf
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by wolf »

@seppia: I have considered the same tactic to buy, instead of dca-investing during the next few years. So have you already invested the first 1/3 cash buffer?

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Bankai
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai »

Yeah I agree buying now is premature. Risk to reward just doesn't look good at all. Even recent drop is only taking us markets to where they were only 4 months ago so no cheap at all while risk of further big drop is very real.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Lucky C wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:56 am
@Seppia Out of curiosity I did a little math. In the event of a -50% bear market your always-invested portion will lose 50% and your spare cash will lose 36%. Not saying -50% is likely or not, just wondering how that would play out.
And if markets lose 90%, I'll lose even more!
Volatility is the price of admission. Statistically, drops beyond 30% are VERY rare, and if they happen, as a 70%+ saver, I'll just rejoice thinking about the amazing prosperity that (should) lie ahead.
wolf wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:02 am
@seppia: I have considered the same tactic to buy, instead of dca-investing during the next few years. So have you already invested the first 1/3 cash buffer?
A little less actually, maybe 25%, including today :)
Bankai wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:47 am
Yeah I agree buying now is premature. Risk to reward just doesn't look good at all. Even recent drop is only taking us markets to where they were only 4 months ago so no cheap at all while risk of further big drop is very real.
With the exception of a very brief period at the end of 2018, European equity indexes haven't been this low since the summer of 2017.
For emerging markets, it's early 2017.
I hadn't bought any indexex for months prior to today, and I am certainly not touching the S&P500 for another long while.
There are some good stocks that are cheap now, it was impossible to find bargains a month ago.
Siemens, Disney, Royal Dutch Shell are a couple names that are at least decently priced

classical_Liberal
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by classical_Liberal »

For everyone laughing at my treasury sale and looking at yields this morning. The transaction actually won't go through until end of business today since it was in my 401K. Maybe I lucked out and today will be bottom? :shock:

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Actually today might be a great day for a short term buy to hope for a rally next week. If prices calm down and start to trend up after the "dumb money" in the first hour of trading finishes selling, that could be promising. Delay of the million COVID-19 test kits for the US next week might buy us another week or so.

@classical_Liberal No shame in selling treasuries at negative real yields with probably more downside risk than upside.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

My Disney puts sold off this morning. I locked in a 30% gain recovering at least some of the cash I lost during my calls in February. Now I'm happy to report that I am officially getting off this roller-coaster of long calls / puts. This fiasco cost me $4k total (out of $6k invested) but was probably worth the price as it taught me a lot more then any college course would...I learned so much about options from this experience lol.

Then again...$290 SPY PUTS looking....okay j/k.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

2Birds1Stone wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:32 am
I made a stupid (so far) move and took some gains off the table and moved a decent chunk of my portfolio into cash.

Total equity exposure is only ~40% right now.
In hindsight, this was not a very stupid move. The remaining exposure I have to equities and REIT's has gotten pummeled, so much so that 40% still feels quite high! Though it's more like 35% now.

Once we get to levels where checking my balances makes me want to puke, I'll consider taking a long position again.

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Picked up some VT (Vanguard Total world stock). I wonder why it has 1 cent big-ask spreads vs. more like 10 cent spreads for US-only VOO and VTI? Anyway this is just in the hopes to ride a potential rally from extreme pessimism/fear back to average levels or even optimism/greed, so it doesn't really matter too much if it's US only or all world. Fingers crossed!

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

The resort, rails, air, cruise, ... businesses are making a comeback today. Guessing it's on account of having been hammered so much in the past two weeks. Financials are still suffering from the 0.50% rate cut. WFC is under $40 now!! Incidentally, the rate cut seems rather dumb to me. Free money is mainly useful when demand is constrained, but with people staying at home, not going shopping, working, or attending conferences, it would only serve to boost the equity/risk markets (which didn't work) while doing nothing for the economy. The only real effect on the ground might be to lower people's credit card payments very slightly... those without savings having to stay home from work.

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Anyone ready to jump into the energy sector yet? Many oil companies now have 6%+ dividend yield but I don't know how likely it is those payouts will endure.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

@LuckyC - I think it's mostly dead [in the long run, so 10-20 years]. Institutional money is pulling out (ethical investing). New discoveries are going down. There's a limit to how much EPS can be generated/supported by buying back shares. This seems more like a trade on oil prices than anything.

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