COVID-19

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Sclass
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Sclass »

We are starting to see a little panic in the stores here in Southern California.

This is my local Costco. I’m glad I’m not down there today. Still orderly but certainly not the norm for my town.

https://youtu.be/FG2klwCT77g

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

The situation in Iran is quite alarming. Really goes to show why those non pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing and isolation are absolutely critical in reducing the epidemic peak!

There's been some panic buying here in Denver, but given we have no confirmed cases yet, there's still supplies in stock (save masks). I'm just glad I got ahead of the curve here.

My plan is to start preparing 2 weeks of frozen meals for the event I get sick. I'm young enough it'll probably be two weeks of flu hell, but I doubt I'll feel like cooking while "dying" of pneumonia. I also got some electrolyte drinks just in case dehydration is a problem.

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Viktor K
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Viktor K »

Sclass wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:41 am
I think my experience happened a long time ago. SARS seems to have stopped this cultural behavior. Here is an old article about it from the SARS era. Apologies for my ignorance and cultural insensitivity.
I still saw this sort of behavior in China in 2019. We didn't use serving spoons.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

One of the big ideas I loved from Harari's Sapiens is that humans did not domesticate wheat, wheat domesticated humans. We became slaves to the DNA of wheat and spread it over the whole of the globe. Is this the viral equivalent?

A few years ago this paper came out about dueling biological and social contagions and how one kept the other in check.

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep43634

It seems that an interesting shift is occurring. The two contagions, biological and social, may be working in synergy. The virus obscures and exacerbates refuge crisis' in Syria and India and.... Refugees provide food for the virus, which fuels fear and around we go.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »


AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

There's definitely an element of ecology to the coronavirus pandemic. The virus doesn't care about borders, race, or class. It just views humans as a monoculture of food. Not unlike how we view chickens or cows. :? And as Jacob mentioned before, applied capitalism to healthcare (also known as letting poor people die of obesity) might "work" for private health, but is an absolute disaster for public health. SARS-CoV-2 can and will infect you through your uninsured Uber driver who skipped out on the coronavirus test and caught it by sending her kid to Poverty n' Plagues Kindergarten Center.

Well to be technically correct, the virus doesn't "view" anything. It's just taking advantage of a profound ecological niche, as nature is wont to do.

It's important to avoid the naturalistic fallacy, because while diseases are natural, they don't have to be inevitable (See the eradication of smallpox). The frequency of pandemic like this can, in fact, be reduced by:
1. Avoiding displacing wild animals by destroying their habitat (hello novel zoonotic diseases!)
2. Better regulation of food animals globally
3. Massive investment in public health infrastructure globally
4. Redirecting investment of pharmaceutical money from high blood pressure medication and opioids to rapid vaccine development
5. Open and transparent governments and press who can clearly communicate good information to the masses
6. Encouraging people to stop flying around and jumping on cruise ships for basically no reason

...on second though, maybe not then. :lol: :?

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »


slowtraveler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

@Sclass
I see that behavior daily in Thailand. It's the norm. I hear it's much worse in China.

In Wuhan, after knowing of the outbreak, 40,000 families gathered together to try setting the world record for largest banquet. I'm sure serving utensils weren't strictly enforced.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/worl ... virus.html

Hear coughing everywhere. Planning my exit. Will wear good mask and goggles for flight. Will self quarantine upon my arrival for 2 weeks to be safe.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Going into the weekend there were 12 labs able to process tests in the US. As of tonight there are 40 or 41. By sometime this week the CDC claims there will be more than 100 labs processing tests.

The number of positives is bound to skyrocket.

Has anyone seen any preparations for large-scale isolation of those who tested positive?
Is the increase in the number of positives baked into the market?

sky
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »

The level of fear is high enough that people who get sick with flu like conditions will not get anyone willing to help them.

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Sclass
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Sclass »

Ego wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:09 pm
Is the increase in the number of positives baked into the market?
Probably not baked in. But I’m not buying options or shorting. What legitimate testing will do is give visibility where there has previously been uncertainty. Stock prices may not go the obvious way.

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

Sclass wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:06 pm
Probably not baked in. But I’m not buying options or shorting. What legitimate testing will do is give visibility where there has previously been uncertainty. Stock prices may not go the obvious way.
Buy the rumor sell the news, but in reverse this time

Lucky C
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Lucky C »

@sky And contagious enough so that if one family member gets it, the rest has a good chance of getting it, unless the first member was immediately confined to their own room with bathroom.

So in my position where we have a one year old, have cases near us already, and can easily self isolate, it only makes sense to do so now. Even if the odds are high that it will be "only flu" for our demographic, who's going to help take care of our little one if we both have it and lack the energy to even get up off the couch? I'd be willing to take loads of precautions to avoid a month-long bout of regular flu as it is.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Sclass wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:06 pm
What legitimate testing will do is give visibility where there has previously been uncertainty.
There are times when uncertainty is better than knowing the truth.

naturelover
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Re: COVID-19

Post by naturelover »

I suspect there are thousands of cases out there and we only know the tip of the iceberg. Hence extra caution is a good idea.

DW works at a hospital and they haven't said a peep about COVID-19. Baffles me that they aren't preparing staff for the inevitable.

I'm interested to see if flights in the US are going to be restricted at some point. Meanwhile, my dipshit boss is scheduling a work conference for the entire cross-country team to get together in a month or so. My bet its cancelled - if it is not, I'll think about not going as its completely nonessential to the running of our affairs.

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Sclass
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Sclass »

Ego wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:43 am
There are times when uncertainty is better than knowing the truth.
;) as long as I’m the guy who knows the truth and the rest of the people are uncertain.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

My employer sent out a business continuity plan. We've been instructed to take our laptops home every night in case we suddenly have to work from home for a prolong period of time. We're also supposed to self quarantine for 14 days if we have any reason to believe we've been exposed or if we've just returned from high risk travel.

I had a coworker return from India who mentioned they were temp screened at the airport and had a throat swab taken.

tonyedgecombe
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Re: COVID-19

Post by tonyedgecombe »

naturelover wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:46 am
I suspect there are thousands of cases out there and we only know the tip of the iceberg. Hence extra caution is a good idea.
I wouldn't jump to that conclusion yet, the UK has tested 13,500 people so far and only had 40 positive results.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Interesting analysis from the WHO press conference today. They basically said that if this had been influenza, it would have spread much faster and containment would be more impossible. This makes sense based on other things I have read. Flu is a much more rapid illness than covid because you get sick within 12 to 72 hours of exposure. Covid takes several days to weeks to cause illness. This means the overwhelming of infrastructure is less severe than with pandemic flu. WHO still even believes containment is possible... if everyone acts like China. That scale of containment is probably politically unfeasible elsewhere.

Lucky C
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Lucky C »

So then what's the point of R0 if WHO is claiming a virus with a much lower R0 would have spread faster than one with a higher R0?
And is WHO implying COVID-19 cannot spread if not showing symptoms?

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