COVID-19

[Ego]

- Infection does not grant immunity; at least one reported case of reinfection after being cured.

Some experts have since chimed in on this. Since I was the one to post that I think I should correct it. They've outlined several possible explanations for what seemed to be reinfection including the sampling for the negative test may have been insufficient.

Fun fact I didn't know, nucleic acid based tests can produce positive results (for instance measles RNA detection) for months after the person has stopped shedding viruses.

So, good news that it is probably not reinfection but bad news that the tests are not black and white. With no way to definitively determine if a person is not shedding viruses the safest thing to do is extend quarantine which multiplies disruption.
-

[chenda]

A good marketing opportunity perhaps though.

Corona: Miles away from China

[ToFI]

@Ego

A possibility is: for the "cured" patients, they were not cured at all. They were almost cured and then released too early thus caused reinfection.

[Viktor K]

I could see it being easier to contain in the US. Hygeine practices while I was in China, Shenzhen no less which is one of the most advanced and newest cities there, were extremely poor. No soap in public restrooms, people "wash" their hands sometimes after using the restroom, and wash in quotation marks because they would just rinse quickly and shake them off. Huge population density, talking 100s of people on each block's sidewalk in the suburbs, maybe thousands outside on each block downtown.

Food was left outside on the ground on a blanket to dry, kids peeing and pooping in the street. Spitting everywhere, no covering the mouth when coughing..

I told my friend there (who was on lockdown) in the last few weeks, "Stay safe man!"

"Okay, I will," he replied.

"Make sure you wash your hands," I added.

"Why?" he asked.

[AnalyticalEngine]

Keep in mind the viruses being shed post infection make not be active viruses. The test only picks up viral RNA, but that doesn't necessarily mean the virus is active, that is, that it can cause infection.

You might imagine I have a bunch of a bunch of virus particles sitting on a desk and I hit them with a disinfectant. The disinfectant deactivates the viruses so they don't cause disease, but the dead virus particles still exist on the table and could be detected in an RNA test.

[thrifty++]

@bigato - Im Southern Hemisphere also and am worried about being here through the whole winter while this thing runs rampant.
Does Brazil get cold in winter like NZ though? The city you are in?

[thrifty++]

Yeah Im contemplating leaving NZ before winter. Temporarily or permanently. Its going to be so hideous here when its cold. Housing here is disgusting also, so its cold and damp inside. Hard to hide from cold weather. Would be so unpleasant being sick and with lots of people sick. Thinking maybe of going to Queensland or Northern NSW in Australia for a while perhaps, where it remains warm in "winter"

[thrifty++]

@August - Its that I don't want to get sick in a cold damp place when lots of other sick people are around. Im generally fit and healthy and well under 50, but I also do have some health issues with a sleeping disorder. But I am probably ok. Maybe I am over-reacting to it all. Very depressing looking at this with winter ahead really.
I had actually thought of the caravan idea also. Was another thing I was thinking of. Wont be able to get anywhere warm in it though

[ZAFCorrection]

I know what I want to be doing if trying desperately to get to Australia during an impending apocalypse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glI2JHeX5XE

[AnalyticalEngine]

Here's a pretty cool site where you can track the shift and drift and mutation of the virus: https://nextstrain.org/ncov

[CS]

On the Spanish flu, I suggest the book "Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed the World".

Thanks for the book recommendation. I'll check it out.

[AnalyticalEngine]

The "minor" cases involve a wide range of clinical symptoms, including "mild" pneumonia. It basically just means you don't have to be hospitalized. It definitely doesn't mean you get just cold symptoms. Basically 5% are critical, which means dead without life support. 15% are severe, which means supplemental O2. 80% are "mild," which includes everything from asymptotic infection to laying in bed for 2 weeks with a high fever, "mild" pneumonia, and being basically unable to move. There's a strong argument for not wanting the flu from hell even if it doesn't kill you.

[Dream of Freedom]

If you're under 50, what specifically is it that you're afraid of though?

You can spread it before you even know you have it. So even if you will be alright doesn't mean you won't give it to someone who could die. So I wouldn't just throw caution to the wind.

[classical_Liberal]

I'm sorry I can't find the story but I read yesterday that US hospitals are at about 95% capacity due to the abnormally high flu now whereas they are normally at 80-90%. If the peak in the US occurs in the summer that should be good timing, but if you get it before the peak that is when I think you would have the most risk of not getting enough care.

Just another comment to help avoid over pessimism or panic. I'm not in healthcare management, so I can not speak to actual numbers or percentages here. However, anecdotally I can say that a large percentage of US hospital beds are used for things like day surgeries, or elective procedures that require an overnight stay. There are also many other procedures that are needed, but not emergent. Meaning that, if need be, these resources can be reallocated to handling emergency situations. I'm not saying an outbreak of COVID-19 won't tax the medical infrastructure, but what I am saying is that we shouldn't make judgements of hospital capacities in emergencies based on normal, daily activities.

Another thing on this note. Generally, a great number of hospital beds are being used by people who have exacerbated chronic conditions to the point they need the care. If you are truly concerned about this, one thing you can do is make sure that family and friends who have chronic disease are managing them well. Like, check in on grandma who has CHF and make sure she doesn't decide now is a good time to go to the all-you-can-eat pizza buffet and sodium/fluid overload herself. Make sure she understands her doctors health maintenance instructions. Or make sure grandpa the diabetic has enough of his medication and doesn't only have a freezer full of ice cream to eat, etc.

[jacob]

I would love to see data on that.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

0.2% ... so ~twice that of measles iff you get sick. FWIW, getting measles used to be a regular thing for us older individuals. I've had it, for example. It sucked even if it didn't kill. I know only one person who had severe complications (my neighbor). She ended up spending months in the hospital. Otherwise, it was fairly normalized.

[5ts]

Table 41. Community hospital beds and average annual percent change, by state: United States, selected years 1980–2016

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2018/041.pdf

NOTES: Community hospitals are nonfederal, short-term, general and special hospitals whose facilities and services are available to the public. The types of facilities included in this category have changed over time.



Hospital Statistics by State - Statistics for non-federal, short-term, acute care hospitals are summarized by state.

https://www.ahd.com/state_statistics.html



Hospital occupancy rate in the U.S. from 1975 to 2017

https://www.statista.com/statistics/185 ... ince-2001/

[AnalyticalEngine]

Two new cases in Santa Clara, California. We're up to three community transmission cases. https://abc7news.com/health/additional- ... -/5974170/

Press conference (sorry for the Facebook link ): https://www.facebook.com/abc7news/video ... cation=ufi

Highlights:
1. Wash your hands
2. Don't touch your face
3. Three cases are epidemiological unlinked
4. Recommending social distancing for employers (telecommuting, etc)
-- Don't specifically suggest immediate social distancing but suggest preparing for future continuity plans
5. Have a family preparedness plan for if you can't leave home for a week or two
6. CDC confirms virus can live on surfaces "more than days"
-- However person to person transmission is still most common route
7. CDC says Santa Clara lab has testing capacity now, and they're sending out more test kits as we speak
-- Hoping commercial tests become available
-- 8 Public health labs that conduct testing in CA now ready
-- Turn around time of 48 hours or less
8. Mostly concerned about "high risk contacts" first, like household members
-- Contact tracing is very resource intensive
9. Declared local public health emergency earlier in the month

Also, I did not know measles had a CFR of 0.1% for adults. Interesting how that's actually decently high for prior healthy adults, yet enough people forget how horrible measles is and insist the vaccine is worse to the point measles came back to the US.

ETA: @c_L - I don't work in medicine, so now you've got me curious. How big of a problem are these poorly managed, chronic conditions in terms of taking up hospital resources? Are these people not following doctor's directions to manages their conditions or are these people with undiagnosed conditions that go catastrophic?

[classical_Liberal]

@AE
Again, it's not my job to know large statistical groups here. Anecdotally my answers would be:

How big of a problem are these poorly managed, chronic conditions in terms of taking up hospital resources?

A large problem.

Are these people not following doctor's directions to manages their conditions or are these people with undiagnosed conditions that go catastrophic?

There are both. The former is worse. Edit: In fairness, I think the medical field could probably do more at the primary care level to help with some of the "noncompliance", with better education, more resources and monitoring. Also, sometimes chronic disease exacerbates even with full compliance. It's disease afterall.

[shemp]

Seen on Telegram (I can't embed the image because more than 800 pixels high):

https://i.imgur.com/D7Q0b3M.jpg

Meanwhile, I'm doing everything wrong if this disease really is serious. Just flew to Europe, planning on further flights in May, August, November, dependent on hotels being open and supermarkets for daily food. Unable to stockpile more than 7 days food because I'm hiking in the mountains.

My whole lifestyle of permanent travel is very fragile and I've long known it, but being in one location bores me. Probably should either buy a van and confine my traveling to the USA (not to excited) or move permanently to a small town in Ukraine or Bulgaria and then travel from there. But that will have to wait until next year.

[Ego]

Plot twist. Covid-19 may have been circulating for weeks in Italy (and US?). We didn't know about it, the theory goes, because we couldn't test for it.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ssion=true