COVID-19

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thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

Yeah Im contemplating leaving NZ before winter. Temporarily or permanently. Its going to be so hideous here when its cold. Housing here is disgusting also, so its cold and damp inside. Hard to hide from cold weather. Would be so unpleasant being sick and with lots of people sick. Thinking maybe of going to Queensland or Northern NSW in Australia for a while perhaps, where it remains warm in "winter"

Augustus
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Augustus »

thrifty++ wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:45 pm
I'd be more scared of flying, since that's how all of this transmission is occurring in the first place. If you're under 50, what specifically is it that you're afraid of though?

If I was a single person and really scared I'd get an RV, avoid people, and stay close to good hospitals in case I do get it. Flying to another country where you don't know the medical system and have no social capital sounds far far more risky.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

@August - Its that I don't want to get sick in a cold damp place when lots of other sick people are around. Im generally fit and healthy and well under 50, but I also do have some health issues with a sleeping disorder. But I am probably ok. Maybe I am over-reacting to it all. Very depressing looking at this with winter ahead really.
I had actually thought of the caravan idea also. Was another thing I was thinking of. Wont be able to get anywhere warm in it though

ZAFCorrection
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ZAFCorrection »

I know what I want to be doing if trying desperately to get to Australia during an impending apocalypse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glI2JHeX5XE

Augustus
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Augustus »

I'll let medical professionals correct me, but from what I can tell based on the data from China:
Asked at a press conference on February 4 what the current mortality rate (or case fatality rate, CFR) is, an official with China NHC said that [7]:
...
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
You want to be close to good not overwhelmed hospitals for this virus. If you are one of the unlucky who end up with more than just minor cold symptoms, you may need to be put on oxygen and also be treated for secondary bacterial infections. If you were in Wuhan and got the acute symptoms, and the hospitals were full, that's the danger zone. If you do contract it, and you have good hospital care, it seems very survivable.

To avoid contracting it, my plan would be to stay away from sick people, which in turn means avoiding flights, uber/lyft, public transport, restaurants, etc. Which rules out travel to another country IMO.

In my case, I have a little sick person who comes into contact with other sick people running around me all the time, so I think I'm doomed. I plan to get to a good hospital asap if I start feeling really sick. If the system around me were to get overwhelmed I'd look at possibly driving to and getting a short term rental in an area that wasn't overwhelmed.

99.8% chance of survival if I contract it seems pretty damn good IMO. Slightly worse than the 99.9% chance of not dying in a car crash.

AnalyticalEngine
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Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Here's a pretty cool site where you can track the shift and drift and mutation of the virus: https://nextstrain.org/ncov

CS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:59 am
On the Spanish flu, I suggest the book "Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed the World".
Thanks for the book recommendation. I'll check it out.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

The "minor" cases involve a wide range of clinical symptoms, including "mild" pneumonia. It basically just means you don't have to be hospitalized. It definitely doesn't mean you get just cold symptoms. Basically 5% are critical, which means dead without life support. 15% are severe, which means supplemental O2. 80% are "mild," which includes everything from asymptotic infection to laying in bed for 2 weeks with a high fever, "mild" pneumonia, and being basically unable to move. There's a strong argument for not wanting the flu from hell even if it doesn't kill you. :lol:

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Augustus wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:50 pm
If you're under 50, what specifically is it that you're afraid of though?
You can spread it before you even know you have it. So even if you will be alright doesn't mean you won't give it to someone who could die. So I wouldn't just throw caution to the wind.

Augustus
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Augustus »

AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:44 pm
It's unfortunate, but I don't think the "flu from hell" cares whether or not I want it. Certain things are in my control, most are not, such is life. Being sick for a few weeks isn't the end of the world. Ever since I had a kid I've been sick for 3 months on average each year, fever and stuck in bed happens sometimes, it's the new normal for me. It's to the point now where it feels amazing to NOT be sick.

With this virus the key thing seems to be having access to good medical care if you are one of the unlucky ones. You take the precautions that you can and try not to get it, but if you get it you get it, worrying is a waste of time if it isn't actively reducing your chances of getting it or reducing the severity if you do. Everything else is irrelevant or out of your control.
Dream of Freedom wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:52 pm
I don't think anyone is advocating licking elevator buttons or throwing caution to the wind. The odds are the odds, reduce them as much as you can, but if you get it you get it. If I were over 50 or in poor health I'd be implementing more drastic measures since CFR shoots up. But what are the odds on a 20s-30s person in good health dying or having permanent health issue arise assuming they get good medical care? 1%? Less? I would love to see data on that.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Lucky C wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:29 am
I'm sorry I can't find the story but I read yesterday that US hospitals are at about 95% capacity due to the abnormally high flu now whereas they are normally at 80-90%. If the peak in the US occurs in the summer that should be good timing, but if you get it before the peak that is when I think you would have the most risk of not getting enough care.
Just another comment to help avoid over pessimism or panic. I'm not in healthcare management, so I can not speak to actual numbers or percentages here. However, anecdotally I can say that a large percentage of US hospital beds are used for things like day surgeries, or elective procedures that require an overnight stay. There are also many other procedures that are needed, but not emergent. Meaning that, if need be, these resources can be reallocated to handling emergency situations. I'm not saying an outbreak of COVID-19 won't tax the medical infrastructure, but what I am saying is that we shouldn't make judgements of hospital capacities in emergencies based on normal, daily activities.

Another thing on this note. Generally, a great number of hospital beds are being used by people who have exacerbated chronic conditions to the point they need the care. If you are truly concerned about this, one thing you can do is make sure that family and friends who have chronic disease are managing them well. Like, check in on grandma who has CHF and make sure she doesn't decide now is a good time to go to the all-you-can-eat pizza buffet and sodium/fluid overload herself. Make sure she understands her doctors health maintenance instructions. Or make sure grandpa the diabetic has enough of his medication and doesn't only have a freezer full of ice cream to eat, etc.
Last edited by classical_Liberal on Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Augustus wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:53 pm
I would love to see data on that.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

0.2% ... so ~twice that of measles iff you get sick. FWIW, getting measles used to be a regular thing for us older individuals. I've had it, for example. It sucked even if it didn't kill. I know only one person who had severe complications (my neighbor). She ended up spending months in the hospital. Otherwise, it was fairly normalized.

5ts
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 5ts »

Table 41. Community hospital beds and average annual percent change, by state: United States, selected years 1980–2016

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2018/041.pdf

NOTES: Community hospitals are nonfederal, short-term, general and special hospitals whose facilities and services are available to the public. The types of facilities included in this category have changed over time.



Hospital Statistics by State - Statistics for non-federal, short-term, acute care hospitals are summarized by state.

https://www.ahd.com/state_statistics.html



Hospital occupancy rate in the U.S. from 1975 to 2017

https://www.statista.com/statistics/185 ... ince-2001/

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Two new cases in Santa Clara, California. We're up to three community transmission cases. https://abc7news.com/health/additional- ... -/5974170/

Press conference (sorry for the Facebook link :| ): https://www.facebook.com/abc7news/video ... cation=ufi

Highlights:
1. Wash your hands
2. Don't touch your face
3. Three cases are epidemiological unlinked
4. Recommending social distancing for employers (telecommuting, etc)
-- Don't specifically suggest immediate social distancing but suggest preparing for future continuity plans
5. Have a family preparedness plan for if you can't leave home for a week or two
6. CDC confirms virus can live on surfaces "more than days"
-- However person to person transmission is still most common route
7. CDC says Santa Clara lab has testing capacity now, and they're sending out more test kits as we speak
-- Hoping commercial tests become available
-- 8 Public health labs that conduct testing in CA now ready
-- Turn around time of 48 hours or less
8. Mostly concerned about "high risk contacts" first, like household members
-- Contact tracing is very resource intensive
9. Declared local public health emergency earlier in the month

Also, I did not know measles had a CFR of 0.1% for adults. Interesting how that's actually decently high for prior healthy adults, yet enough people forget how horrible measles is and insist the vaccine is worse to the point measles came back to the US. :?

ETA: @c_L - I don't work in medicine, so now you've got me curious. How big of a problem are these poorly managed, chronic conditions in terms of taking up hospital resources? Are these people not following doctor's directions to manages their conditions or are these people with undiagnosed conditions that go catastrophic?

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

@AE
Again, it's not my job to know large statistical groups here. Anecdotally my answers would be:
AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:44 pm
How big of a problem are these poorly managed, chronic conditions in terms of taking up hospital resources?
A large problem.
AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:44 pm
Are these people not following doctor's directions to manages their conditions or are these people with undiagnosed conditions that go catastrophic?
There are both. The former is worse. Edit: In fairness, I think the medical field could probably do more at the primary care level to help with some of the "noncompliance", with better education, more resources and monitoring. Also, sometimes chronic disease exacerbates even with full compliance. It's disease afterall.

shemp
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shemp »

Seen on Telegram (I can't embed the image because more than 800 pixels high):

https://i.imgur.com/D7Q0b3M.jpg

Meanwhile, I'm doing everything wrong if this disease really is serious. Just flew to Europe, planning on further flights in May, August, November, dependent on hotels being open and supermarkets for daily food. Unable to stockpile more than 7 days food because I'm hiking in the mountains.

My whole lifestyle of permanent travel is very fragile and I've long known it, but being in one location bores me. Probably should either buy a van and confine my traveling to the USA (not to excited) or move permanently to a small town in Ukraine or Bulgaria and then travel from there. But that will have to wait until next year.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Plot twist. Covid-19 may have been circulating for weeks in Italy (and US?). We didn't know about it, the theory goes, because we couldn't test for it.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ssion=true

Lucky C
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Lucky C »

Not news to me after seeing in the past several weeks multiple plausible accounts of Americans going to the doctor with a good match of the symptoms, testing negative for the flu, and being sent home with just an antibiotic prescription or whatever. No Wuhan contact = no test, reassurance that they can't have COVID-19. The CDC are only starting to roll out serious testing now. Not sure if their updated test kits are actually reliable yet.

So many exciting realities in this Choose Your Own Adventure!
If you'd like to believe it will run its course by summer and its impact to GDP will be exactly -0.251%, turn to page 42.
If you'd like to believe it's less deadly than the flu and a Democrat hoax, turn to page 101.
If you'd like to believe it's an incurable bioweapon that will kill 5% of the population, reinfect, and kill a greater percent ad infinitum, and China is incinerating people while they're still alive, turn to page 666.

Gilberto de Piento
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

I was out at two big box home stores today to buy house project supplies, both were out of masks and goggles and had limits on how many masks you could buy if any came in. If there is anything you need buy it now. That said, don't be the person who buys a pallet of whatever just to hoard it. Supplies are going to be limited, don't make it worse than it has to be.

I had a good talk with some people today about Y2K. I forgot about it and how scared many people were. It was a different problem to prepare for though.

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Sclass
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Sclass »

I just got back from Harbor Freight Tools. One pair of goggles left. Lots of wrap around safety glasses but I wanted the full on lab goggles with the strap. They’ll be good for cord trimming if I survive.

Interesting theory about COVID 19 being around for awhile. My gut feel (and the bits of news) is that it is already out and circulating in California. I saw an interview with a Davis student and she said several students are sick at her dorm under self quarantine. No test of course because this is California where we only have 200 test kits.

I doubt the disease has been lingering long though. The rate at which it has multiplied on the Diamond Princess and in Seoul suggests that once it in here it makes itself known by quickly multiplying and creating a local transmission crisis. This thing spreads and grows exponentially. I honestly think the fact the ERs aren’t filling up with pneumonia cases in California is because it is just starting to gain a foothold.

Or maybe the ERs are overrun and they’re not reporting on it?

Well, given the case in Davis and the Santa Clara community transfer I think it’s just a matter of days before we see some signal popping out of the noise.

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