COVID-19

[ertyu]

They sent in the military in the end. There was a video of them getting trained and putting hazmat over their fatigues. Respect to the nurses of Wuhan and everyone who went and joined in, either voluntarily or "voluntarily." All those "it's just the flu lol you overreactin'" are gonna eat their words - even though I wish it would somehow mutate enough that they won't have to.

[thrifty++]

Fuck! Its in NZ now too finally.
This is going to be the worst place in the world to be as we will be heading into winter in May while the rest of the world is going into summer (or stays warm all year). Its going to able t run rampant here in NZ until we hit summer again all the way in December!!!

Its going to be hideous here. Thinking of going to my second country before winter starts - or go somewhere warm in Aussie for four months to ride it out

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national ... spartandhp

[classical_Liberal]

Just to bring a bit of an optimistic tilt to this whole thing. If it is indeed being transmitted via community in the US now, the timing is pretty good. Seasonal flu tapers off by April, which frees up medical resources even if transmission of COVID-19 doesn't. Although it's probable the season will help elongate the infection curve. As others have pointed out, minimizing the overtaxing of the medical infrastructure will significantly improve outcomes and reduce mortalities. Despite inferences to the contrary, IMO, the US medical system is significantly more effective than China's. Notwithstanding the amazing devotion of Chinese nurses.

[Lucky C]

I'm sorry I can't find the story but I read yesterday that US hospitals are at about 95% capacity due to the abnormally high flu now whereas they are normally at 80-90%. If the peak in the US occurs in the summer that should be good timing, but if you get it before the peak that is when I think you would have the most risk of not getting enough care. After the peak there may be a little more capacity but on the other hand a lot of Chinese doctors and nurses have been getting sick and dying, including young ones!

I will have an urge to self-quarantine my family as much as possible in the coming weeks. I think we will have a decent local window of opportunity to avoid this thing since I'm currently staying home and my wife is only working a few days a week, and we don't have any plans to go into the nearby cities in the foreseeable future. She was thinking about quitting her job in a few months but is the type who would hate giving short notice and leaving her team short-staffed, so it might be tough to time it right. If there is a confirmed case in a city near us (meaning maybe 10 or 100 unknown infected), I would think the odds would be in her favor that she would still avoid getting infected working two more weeks in the suburbs.

What might become a popular strategy in suburbia USA is to use grocery delivery services to minimize exposure, assuming self-quarantine before any major food shortages or impact to these kinds of services. Even better, get a delivery of non-perishable food and leave it someplace safe untouched for a couple weeks before cracking it open.

[wolf]

I started prepping a few years ago. Now I know why prepping makes sense.

[Ego]

Despite inferences to the contrary, IMO, the US medical system is significantly more effective than China's. Notwithstanding the amazing devotion of Chinese nurses.

Knowing your levelheadedness and the fact that you are one of the few people here who will actually be on the front lines, your optimism makes me feel good. Thanks for that!

[Jean]

I bought one additional week of food. Shelves were especially full. I imagine people aren't panicking.

[CS]

It's like something from the start of a pandemic movie. It sounds like the whistleblower is now being attacked too.

Yes, the whistle blower was attacked. They were reassigned and would have lost their job if they didn't take it. Clearly retaliatory.

Now all information is going through Pence. I don't want to take the time to dig up all the links on his incompetence for the HIV crisis while in Indiana. It is looking more and more like a banana republic here.

Another forum I spent a lot of time talked about how there was a lot of government lying about what was really going in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic and this contributed to the problem, and the spread. I don't have a reference for this so would be interested in learning more if anyone here knows about that. If I have time I'll do some research.

Personally, I'm rooting for a big recession in Q2 so we have a chance of getting flipping the leadership in the States. The dropping stock market is giving me hope. The epidemic/pandemic team leadership has been decimated in the last two to three years and the best of hope of restoring that is by ousting the people who ruined it. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump ... emic-team/

“Trump also cut funding for the CDC, forcing the CDC to cancel its efforts to help countries prevent infectious-disease threats from becoming epidemics in 39 of 49 countries in 2018. Among the countries abandoned? China.” That information was confirmed by 2018 news reports stating that funding for the CDC’s global disease outbreak prevention efforts had been cut by 80%, including funding for the agency’s efforts in China.

[CS]

I bought one additional week of food. Shelves were especially full. I imagine people aren't panicking.

Same here in the Midwest. I was surprised. I think the stores are planning for a rush. My folks are dragging their feet ("but I get 5% more discount if I wait until next Tuesday.") Discount or not, I'm not waiting for them.

Actually, they are probably not wrong about their not risking running into lockdown problems, but they are risking more exposure. We aren't testing enough. I'm betting a good portion of the US population will have this virus before we have a clue, sentinel deaths or not. South Korea is shooting for testing 200,000 people this week(!), while the flipping US can't even get their shit together for working test kits.

The people in Milan probably would have thought a lock-down not possible too.

I have four parents in their mid seventies, plus my own asthma. This whole thing is filling me with dread.

[AnalyticalEngine]

Seconding ego, I appreciate your perspective c_L. It's good to hear from people who will actually be on the ground.

On the Spanish flu, I suggest the book "Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed the World". The US government did indeed censor news about domestic flu in order to boost war morale and make their enemies look bad. That's why it got named "Spanish" flu despite not starting in Spain. Being neutral in the war, Spain didn't censor the papers and therefore appeared to be suffering worse than other countries. But in reality that wasn't true.

I went to Costco yesterday, and everything shelf stable (canned goods, rice, etc) was nearly out of stock. Medicines and latex gloves and TP and bottled water was also dwindling. Pretty shocking considering this is the suburbs of Denver, but people here seem to be taking it seriously. Best prepare before the rush.

[naturelover]

Maybe I'm being optimistic but I somehow don't think grocery store access is going to be limited. Best be prepared, but I can't see it elevating to the point we can't even go to the grocery store. In my instance I live with a healthcare worker so if anyone is going to get it we will.

In that case, I won't be sketched out by going to the grocery store unless everyone is locked from going to their homes.

With that said, I will likely get extra medication and food from Costco this weekend. What are all you stocking up on? I'm thinking rice, dried beans, frozen veggies. Are people preparing for no water/power access too? If that happens, I imagine our economy and businesses will be devasted.

[Jean]

I piled on rice, beans, lentils, polenta, pasta, canned tomatoes, onions, potatoes, and bleach to treat rain or river water. Tap should keep workin in my village without power, but the water might not be disinfected anymore.
In case of power shortage, trading farm work for milk and other farm produce should be easy.

[jacob]

The loss of water and power will create a far bigger [public health] problem so that will get priority. More worrisome would be a broken water pipe in your home and the likes insofar the plumber doesn't want to come visit. Having access to some stored water and some electricity (at least lighting or charging comms) is always useful even it's just to deal with something minor like a power outage or a broken pipe.

[chenda]

@Jean- I think Switzerland stockpiles a lot of stuff anyway ?

@naturelover - hand sanitizer, liquid soap, disinfectant surface wipes and the like. I'm going to have a few weeks of food stored up, as much to avoid queues and chaos if more people start panic buying.

My dad is flying to Portugal this weekend, he's 82. Fit and healthy but I'm going to load him up with hand sanitizer and try and convince him to use it lots.

[AnalyticalEngine]

It's not losing access to groceries I'm concerned about. It's more needing to go on a supply run and catching covid on the supply run. Even delivery runs the risk of the driver or goods being infected. It's better practice to stock up now so you don't have to leave your house and risk infection when covid rolls into town.

[ertyu]

@ffj, not my country and therefore less of my circus/monkeys than your guys', but on a world-wide scale, a downturn is inevitable. I am thus rooting for a downturn because the sooner it happens, the less bad it will be (qe -> gvt borrows because why not, corporates borrow to buy back => the more time passes, the bigger the amount of debt needed to keep this afloat, and the bigger the debt, the nastier the crash).

ncovid is everyone's circus and monkeys, and i definitely don't wish illness on anyone. Though friends of mine have been known to lay on the black humor, "at least it'll help with the population pyramid" and "don't buy property now, wait for the grannies to go, that's a lot of house on the market" style.

[George the original one]

Trying to summarize the numbers posted here and elsewhere:

- Odds of infection are impossible to calculate because it depends on personal hygiene and social exposure.
- It looks like after initial infection, the odds of developing a serious infection are 1 in 25, possibly 1 in 20.
- Of those who have a serious infection, 60% die. Lung damage (e.g. smoking) and being over 50 put you at higher risk of dying.
- Infection does not grant immunity; at least one reported case of reinfection after being cured.

So... keep washing your hands, especially if you're prone to touching your face!

[jacob]

Apparently Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), the makers of Corona beers, are experiencing some problems because ... awwfuckit ... I don't... do really I need to ... humans!

[thrifty++]

I feel like the Chinese govt needs to be held accountable for this somehow. Such as by legal action/reparations/damages.

It seems that this all stems from bad hygiene practices, problem eating habits and insufficient medical standards, all from a lack of proper regulation. China is a risk to the whole world and this sort of shit keeps coming out of China.

[theanimal]

@jacob- Some of their ads have appeared for me on Twitter. I looked at the replies and they were full of outrage from people who thought Corona was being disrespectful and crass for advertising at this time...