Investments Trade Log

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Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Lucky C wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:34 am
Never thought I would see this forum jump on the bandwagon of speculative call options for popular stocks with the US market at record valuations in the longest bull run in history.

The trend is your friend til it bends in the end.
In general I think what a 10 year bull market does is some people forget one of my favorite Warren Buffett nuggets

“Over the years, a number of very smart people have learned the hard way that a long string of impressive numbers multiplied by a single zero always equals zero.”

In this sense, being an index ayatollah is not as bad

Jason
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Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:37 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

I started buying DIS in the mid 120's. It has come down since the initial spike caused by streaming launch. It's four businesses in one - merchandising/movies/theme parks/streaming. The only thing they can't do is gaming so they license it out. The capital costs of launching streaming plus Coronavirus issues is keeping it down. No one company in the history of America has been better at integrating their products. I personally hate fucking Star Wars. And I hate movies about super heroes. The thing I love most about Disney are videos of families beating the shit out of each at Disney World. Put that on Disney + and I'd subscribe. Any ways, for those who love it, they pass it on too their idiot kids. It's a legacy thing.

ajcoleman22
Posts: 44
Joined: Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:45 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ajcoleman22 »

I agree with Jason's assessment; don't forget cruises. I bought Disney several years ago when my inlaws planned a trip for $10k. I thought $10k was crazy. The response, "but it's Disney"

Disney will never stop making money with the cult following they have.

ertyu
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Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

wait for a dip, dis have parks in china, and english teaching thing in china; if movie attendance + park/cruise attendance suffers because of ncovid, dis might be going down before it goes up (if it does go up)

Jason
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

The fact that Disney is being impacted by Coronavirus is informative: it tells us Disney has a strong presence in China. So what's negative in the short run is positive in the long run. The main reason that movies are comic books or cartoons with unsophisticated dialogue is in order that they can appeal to the Chinese market.

https://www.firstthings.com/media/how-c ... -hollywood

8 out the 10 highest grossing films in 2019 were in some way connected to Disney and now they will only be accessible in the future through Disney +. That's owning the hardware and the software. Then they make a theme park ride and a musical and a prequel and it never ends. Thirteen year old boys living in a future that actually looks like Star Wars will be dry humping their Princess Leaih sleeping bags. George Lucas made American Graffiti so I can't completely kill him. But he's the movie mogul version of The Who. When you take a closer look at the catalogue, its limited but through re-packaging and various media formats it doesn't stop earning. They also own ESPN and the Chinese love NBA basketball. They're probably treating Yao Ming like Secretariat and having him bang the tallest women in the country five times a day. I bet he's got a hundred kids right now working out in some secret gymnasium. Country is bat shit crazy. Literally and figuratively. No offense to any Chinese ERErs.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

A lot of today's damage is likely margin buyers being forced to cover. Even gold is down today. 2008 saw some of the same behavior. Initially all the high-flyers get punished, yet the day after the good stuff gets dragged down too. Correlations are breaking down as expected.

Add: Margin speculators will only sell "the good stuff" for covering purposes insofar it has recently appreciated.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Well I'm getting burned on DIS/MSFT/V to not the surprise of some members here lol. Lesson learned but at this point since my calls are still out 4-5+ months and I'm already so far deep in the red, I might as well hold out. I'm wondering if I'm suffering from loss aversion which I probably am to some degree...but I think it still might be worth it to hold out to earnings on this trio and maybe a vaccine at best or treatment options became available and the coronavirus will be an after-thought.

ToFI
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:22 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ToFI »

@Lemur
I thought you hedged your options but hedging has cost. One sided option is risky. I think option is too much work and hard to get consistent return. Even with covered call, I tried for a few months and gave up options completely. Many times stock increased far beyond the strike price. Too much work for little return.

Lucky C
Posts: 528
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Lucky C wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:34 am
The trend is your friend til it bends in the end.
Previous post coincided with SPX crossing the -1% down point on the first day of this selloff, when I doubled up on some SPY puts (first batch purchased 2/13, doubled up 2/20). I sold them as prices fell, a little Friday, a little Monday, and the rest throughout yesterday as we entered Extreme Fear territory. Gain of +132% over about a week which more than cancels out my "insurance" losses during the bull run (some would say melt-up) over the past year.

At the same time I have held my gold mining stocks (small %), reduced other equities exposure to a small amount, and bought a little GLD. Overall mostly in cash now since options are no longer cheap / volatility is likely to remain high, and I have no idea where the market is headed in the short term. Plus my cash can earn about as much yield as short term treasuries, for now. I have predictions as to where the market is headed in the short to medium term, but I am done making trades based on those types of predictions and I want to be done with any sort of options or shorting.

Despite this great week for me, I do not normally beat the market overall since I have been conservative in my bets, so everyone riding this market up has probably been doing better than me so far. I have been getting smooth bond-like returns recently but without much correlation to overvalued equities or bonds. Obviously a bad move vs. riding the melt-up over the past year, but could turn into a good move if this is the start of a bear market.

ertyu
Posts: 733
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

bought lots of GDX. On the one hand, ATH (well, close to. Bought at 32.08). On the other hand, corona. ?? Did I fuck up do you think.

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Anybody think of any good coronavirus plays? Sure, I have some exposure to Corona through Constellation Brands and I like that brand of beer but I'm not sure it's quite the same. ;)

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Switched to IAU instead of GLD after realizing IAU fees are only 0.25% vs. GLD 0.40%.

An idea I have for COVID-19-based trading would be to avoid countries where the virus has not yet hit or where it is growing exponentially (fear will grow) and buy stocks in countries where the growth rate is heading toward zero, if you trust the numbers (fear will subside). This is assuming it will continue along the path as a pandemic. A safer bet would be to wait until the population is saturated if containment fails, and half the population is infected, all out panic, etc., but we don't know if that will happen. China reported infection growth rate is now near zero but are those numbers real and will there be a second wave after they try to return to work? Anyway that's my thinking since waves of fear vs. greed will crest at different times in different countries. Won't work if fear continues to hit all world markets at once and/or we enter global recession. If that happens I will be happy to have my cash & gold.

Jason
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Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:37 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

Zoom Video was the one holding I had that remained in the green throughout this event. Jim Cramer recommended Clorox. Someone else recommended Tencent because the entire country is stuck at home playing video games. Or throat fucking bats I imagine. I wouldn't know. I read a third party email from a person in Italy. The world is not going to be kind to this. Bob Iger resigned. I'm sure he had it planned but at at least he won't be the face of first quarter earning results. Sorry Lemur. For what its worth my stock ticker looked like Kermit The Frog getting anally raped by a parade of Chinese Red flags over a 48 hour period.

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Lemur
Posts: 553
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@ToFi

None of my positions were hedged. Unfortunately, I think I became a statistic to irrational exuberance. I should have known better :/ . On the flip side, this spurred me into action and I learned a lot about covered calls, buying puts, shorting....just reading and watching tons of videos. Also learning about all those greek symbols. We learn more from our mistakes sometimes then our gains.

@Jason

lol. The laugh I got from that is worth more then my call options at the moment so its definitely worth something.

Lucky C
Posts: 528
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

DVYE and DVYA ETFs look appealing to me compared to broad international/EM ETFs due to their concentration in high dividend & low valuation countries and sectors. DVYE top country holding is Taiwan (about 2/3 is Taiwan + BRIC) and DVYA top country by far is Australia (about 3/4 is Australia + Hong Kong).

But if the virus isn't going to peak for several months in most countries, and if there were already significant risks of many countries entering recession (or global recession) even before the outbreak, it might not be wise to jump into one of these funds for a "safe" 6% yield after they've only been knocked down 10%.

thedollar
Posts: 139
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

Things are getting interesting...

I might pick up Royal Caribbean Cruises and Carnival this week or start of next week. Great companies and I will hold 5+ yrs. Don't think corona will impact long term prospects.

Also looking at Marriott, Hilton and Intercontinental Hotels. They seem to be quality companies with awesome brands but they haven't drop enough to become attractive (yet).

Lucky C
Posts: 528
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Gilead's Remdesivir drug showed promise in treating COVID-19 based on one US case. Clinical trials started a couple weeks ago in China. I read clinical trials are starting in Taiwan and the FDA approved phase 3 trials. Meanwhile Alex Azar testified that the private sector needs to make money vs. the govt forcing vaccines and treatments to be made affordable for all Americans.

So GILD has been doing very well amid the selloff and is at another +6% pre-market. Still well below its highs in 2015 and a decent dividend too. Seems like a decent place to put a small bet with a stop in place in case remdesivir turns out to be a dud.

ToFI
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:22 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ToFI »

just a reminder for retired folks, don't speculate based on short term noise.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) is in a downhill slide for 5 years already. It's not wise to go against a tide.

Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Some oil stocks are getting very interesting.
I would have already bought some RDSA if it weren’t my second largest holding* already (used to be THE largest but not any more :) )
Keeping an eye on Siemens and may add some more Rio Tinto.


*among single stocks

ToFI
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:22 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ToFI »

This crazy market drop has to stop soon. For couple days, the market was trying to squeeze some positive gain in the morning and it turned red in the second half of the day. SP500 is already downed 12% . I know the valuation of US market is elevated but Chinese stock market bottomed at around -11% then bounced back slowly. I can't guarantee this is a true bottom because the infection rate can reverse in China once people are back to work. North American stock markets are much higher quality than Chinese stock market and should drop the same % if not less. The hygiene habit is also much better in developed world than in China. I don't think we'll get as many cases in US as in China. There's a reason for Chinese investors to panic because new cases number exploded in Wuhan during the Chinese new year where many people gathered together. How many new cases we have in US now? Around 60.

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