Investments Trade Log

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Jason

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

I was reluctant to pick Zoom but an in depth analysis on the Motley Fool Board swayed me. I always remember the sub-plot in Infinite Jest re: teleconferencing.

However, more and more people work remotely. Also, after this health event, I could see it being necessary in the same way data centers/Wall Street firms have disaster recovery facilities always at the ready - not used on a day to day basis but there in case of crisis.

RE China in General: The bottom line is promoting capitalism while maintaining Communism will always have an air of suspicion and this crisis is a reminder of that. The cultural/social/political structures of republican/democratic regimes are more conducive to capitalistic enterprise. I don't own any Chinese stocks. The impact of this will dwarf SARS on their economy.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@thedollar

I'm not touching TSLA because the price just doesn't make sense...its ludicrous high..and I won't buy puts either because I can't gauge how long the FOMO will last. Oh well.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

thedollar wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:15 am
market irrationality seems to have been carrying on for years looking at tsla. Why would it suddenly end in the next few years?
Not being sure about it is why I considered betting on price declines, but only without the infinite downside of actually shorting.
I believe nobody with a brain should be sure of anything wrt the markets, so I personally like to think in probabilistic terms.
Tesla is now trading at around 7 times revenue, has been losing money since its inception, has an impossible accounts receivable position that they refuse to explain and has now stopped growing its top line since a few quarters (look closely).
My bet is that they are running out of bullshit.
Also, these price movements have a gigantic
neon BLOWOFF! sign flashing above them.
I can totally see this going to $1500, but similarly to bitcoin closing in on $20k, I believe gravity is going to take hold at a certain point.
Lastly, when fundamentals aren’t there, the only thing realistically keeping this run alive is the greater fool theory. Issue with that is as soon as it stops working, it drops fast.
We shall see.
I would bet $5000 with anybody that within 5 years TSLA is closer to zero in value than it is to today’s market cap (meaning: it will at least halve in value)*.


*If there’s anybody willing to take this bet here we can look into ways of making it happen.

5ts
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by 5ts »

If anyone can predict TSLA then you obviously can read the source of the Matrix.

George the original one
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one »

Seppia wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:25 pm
I would bet $5000 with anybody that within 5 years TSLA is closer to zero in value than it is to today’s market cap (meaning: it will at least halve in value).
Are any of Elon Musk's companies making money? Because as far as I can tell, he finances the existing companies by creating a new one (using a very good story).

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

Seppia wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:25 pm
I would bet $5000 with anybody that within 5 years TSLA is closer to zero in value than it is to today’s market cap (meaning: it will at least halve in value)*.
*If there’s anybody willing to take this bet here we can look into ways of making it happen.
That's technically a barrier option which probably doesn't exist for this "problem". However, Jun2022 puts at ~half price strikes currently cost $50ish (x100 for the contract), so you could buy one contract. You'd start making money at $50 below the strike, so set strike at $425 and start making money below $375.

Check out the ivol chart first though: https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/TSLA/IV/ ... TSLA options are currently very pricey. Cf the average market which over the past several years has been in the 10-20% range.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Lol this stock is completely insane, lost 17% today.

5ts
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by 5ts »

I think it's going to bounce all over the place for a while. I considered options but I'm not going anywhere near this beast, too volatile.

theanimal
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by theanimal »

George the original one wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:07 pm
Are any of Elon Musk's companies making money? Because as far as I can tell, he finances the existing companies by creating a new one (using a very good story).
Supposedly SpaceX is profitable.

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Bankai
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai »

Somewhat timely WSP post on why not to short Tesla

https://wallstreetplayboys.com/investin ... -disaster/

ToFI
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ToFI »

My portfolio is fully allocated and I am in withdrawal mode so I won't add to existing positions. I am focused on getting a couple new IPOS per year.
Just bought full positions for:
-i3 Verticals, Inc. (IIIV)
-Schrodinger, Inc. (SDGR): This company is in simulation software for bio science, material science, got early funding from Gate and Melinda foundation. I think it'll be good growth stock. Its performance is crazy during the first 2 days of IPO.. It's like Tesla.
-Bill.com


On watchlist, bought a partial position meaning less value than a full position:
Datadog, Inc. (DDOG)
Last edited by ToFI on Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

ToFI
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ToFI »

A lot of people don't get it. If a company has positive gross margin, it can reach profit by not spending too much money for expansion. TSLA's gross profit margin is 20% and just turned a net profit for 2 quarters in a row. Tesla reached a turning point in scale and profitability. It's insane to bet against Tesla at this point. I bought 2 shares just to join the EV revolution and witness history. In 5 to 10 years, Tesla probably reach 1 trillion market cap. it'll become "Apple" in the Car world. Tesla not only make car. It's not a car company in traditional sense. It's a tech company. It has its own AI chip for full autonomous self driving, self driving AI algorithm, massive real world driving mileage(needed for self driving algorithm), energy storage business(growing fast).
Lastly, Elon is a serial entrepreneur. He'll prove many doubter wrongs. He founded Zip, X.COM which become part of Paypal, SpaceX, Neuralink.

Similarly, Virgin Galatic, It's just IPO recently. I bought a small position. It'll likely to become the first successful space tourism company. Richard Branson is a serial entrepreneur. I believe he'll likely to be successful. Initial customers will be rich people like pop stars, business men/women. Later, the price comes down and regular people can afford the ticket.

IlliniDave
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by IlliniDave »

I sold another ~4.5% of my US stock funds Friday. Still having trouble staying below 60/40. And starting to think I might be more comfortable with an even more conservative deployment.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@ToFI

SPCE is one I have my eye on as well. I'd like the price to come under $20 but I could easily see this becoming a $50 billion company one day...

2Birds1Stone
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

I made a stupid (so far) move and took some gains off the table and moved a decent chunk of my portfolio into cash.

Total equity exposure is only ~40% right now.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

It’s not stupid if it makes you sleep at night.
I am one of those who thought in 2015 that the stock market was close to a crash, but held on to my stocks as I’m in the “never sell while you’re accumulating” camp.
How much would stocks have to fall for me to be right, had I sold?

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Elaborating on this
I sold some (15% total) of my RDSA (Amsterdam) for 29 and then 31€ between April and May 2018. I almost perfectly timed the top of the last 5 years.
I bought the same amount a few days ago for 24€.
I thought i made a phenomenal deal but then did the math as I usually do.

The 30€ stock (average) I sold were paid 20€.
So I paid 2.6€ in taxes (italy 26% on gains)
Meanwhile, since May 2028, RDSA paid around 2.5€ of dividends
Net, I made around 1€ per stock.

ToFI
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ToFI »

Lemur wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:23 am
@ToFI

SPCE is one I have my eye on as well. I'd like the price to come under $20 but I could easily see this becoming a $50 billion company one day...

It doesn't hurt to buy a small position. I just bought 8 shares as watchlist position and will add more later if company is gaining traction. Remember when Tesla went IPO, it was trading for $17 per share... Today, it's $767, a 45 times increase.


There are couple advantages for SPCE:
1. First public traded space company. It's a disruptive company like Tesla.
2. It already has 600 people signed up for a ride at a price of 250k each and I heard the number goes up every month.
3. Their next plan is build a new aircraft for point to point transportation that reduce the travel time from 10 hours to 2 hours. There's a potential big market. Think about the business executives going to meetings, time is critical. Ticket price is not.
4. It's a low cost solution. I've heard the carbon foot print per person is the same as travelling from US to Asia by air plane.

Jason

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

I'm sold. Bought my first SPCE stake @ $23.66. I hate space more than Facebook but now I own both. Hopefully they can do better than Boeing and keep their shit up in the air.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@Jason

Excellent call! Up 26.74% today. I wish I would have chosen that one for the call options I've been doing lately...

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