Tulsi 2020: Anti-war Democrat says she’s running for US president

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chenda
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Re: Tulsi 2020: Anti-war Democrat says she’s running for US president

Post by chenda » Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:35 am

I know nothing of American politics but I was reading about Tulsi some time ago and she really has an impressive CV, such an inspirational women. The first ever Hindu in congress I believe.

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Re: Tulsi 2020: Anti-war Democrat says she’s running for US president

Post by jacob » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:20 am

Kriegsspiel wrote: Tulsi Gabbard was evidently the most searched candidate post-debates on Google.
Two explanations for the google result (As in, why would people suddenly google her now?!). It's likely a combination of both, but seeing as it is google whose short-term results are easy to manipulate, I lean more towards #2.

1) Democrat[ic voters] had a "What is Brexit?"-moment after seeing the first debate. Gabbard is in the bottom top10 of the polls leading up to the debate---that would put her in the center of the peloton in a field of 20.

2) A concerted effort from 4chan and reddit trolls drove up Drudge Report's online polling. Gabbard was then reported as the winner of the debate on The Hill and The Daily Mail. And right-wing readers of those three sides looked her up on google: "Who is this winner of the debate that I had never heard about before?"

2b) Also a lot of the google traffic could have been driven by the troll brigade itself. Remember Santorum?

Note that MSM didn't talk much about her following the debates.

Expect more of this kinda of poll-trolling and manipulation of the voting process going forward. Why pick Tulsi Gabbard to screw with the information flows? Well, she's notable in the nihilist online troll community (thanks Joe Rogan) and sending a bottom 10 to the top would screw with the process if nothing else screw with the MSM insofar they had fallen for it.

Note that being anti-war is mostly a libertarian position and thus a stance that would endear any democrat or republican candidate to the libertarians---whereas it's not really a stand-out selling point as far as the democrats are concerned (not in the primaries, not in the general election) since hawkishness is not a defining feature of the left. This is why I don't believe at #1 represents the majority of google results.

I guess we'll see who is still around for round two.

Speaking of which, here's another example of trying to mess with that process. https://twitter.com/jeffroe/status/1144439268258877441 calling for Republican voters to donate to Marianne Williamson (she's the out-in-the-left field candidate who wants to "conquer Trump with love" and a bunch of other ehh... "interesting" ideas). (Why are the number of donations relevant? ... because the DNC use it as a criteria for who gets invited to the debates.)

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Re: Tulsi 2020: Anti-war Democrat says she’s running for US president

Post by jennypenny » Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:14 am

Paranoid much? :?

Another explanation ... DH and many of his colleagues at DoD voted for Trump because he promised to get the US out of the endless/pointless conflicts around the world. He hasn’t delivered on that promise.

DH and many others are now looking at Gabbard who is making the same promise. Her experience and demeanor make her promise seem sincere and attainable.

DH and I are considering changing our affiliation to D so we can vote for her in the primary. Note that I’m willing to look past her far-left position on abortion to vote for her. IMO she can draw more votes away from Trump than any other candidate including Biden.

Can’t blame everything on 4chan. There’s still a silent Trump majority out there, most of whom have never heard of 4chan or reddit and rarely read Drudge or watch Fox.

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Re: Tulsi 2020: Anti-war Democrat says she’s running for US president

Post by jacob » Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:01 pm

From NBC News: https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/ ... e-n1023406

The only question is, therefore, the size of the relative proportions and---from the perspective of google-search rates---how much #1, #2, and your #3-effects would change these search results.

The fact that Gabbard got a huge bump (40%) on Drudge Report while still polling at <2% in regular polls (that would cover #1 and #3) suggest fake manipulation (#2) was a big influence. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/de ... bate-poll/ has a cool flow chart using Morning Consult (not online) data to show that the only place the needle really moved during the first round was voters moving from Biden to Harris. Basically, it takes A LOT. Most voters are just looking to see their own subjective views reflected back at them from a candidate. Only those who were disappointed relative to their expectation changed their mind.

Given that Gabbard and Yang enjoy outsized attention from "intellectual dark web"-fans (can someone confirm that they are the only two candidates who have ever been on Joe Rogan, who as discussed previously is affiliated with the IDW? If so, that would explain a great deal of what I'm seeing), I think it should lend pause to any conclusions about their overall population popularity based on online polls/memes/forum discussions about those two candidates in particular.

So lets wait for some more confirmation to see if this wasn't just a mildly successful case of political spoofing.

I think the greater question beyond spoofing the primaries is whether IDW IINOs and Republicans flirting with Gabbard or Yang are just trying to signal some centrist open-mindedness or whether they would actually hold their nose and vote for a Democrat in 2020 (insofar it's Yang or Gabbard) instead of voting Trump again or simply staying at home.

The even greater question is whether to run a campaign based on trying to peel off 2016-Trump voters XOR appeal to the far-left to increase the Democrat base (by turning out Millennials and GenZ voters). Doing both, at least at the same time, seems rather impossible. So far it looks like most of the candidates (with the exception of Biden and Buttigieg?) are trying for the latter approach, that is, tilting left to pick up voters on the far-left (Bernie voters) who otherwise wouldn't vote, rather than tilting right to try to convert 2016 Trump voters to the Democrat side. This can of course change later in the race. But basically, what currently seems undecided is whether the Democrat answer to a radicalized GOP should be an equally radicalized left or the moderate approach that worked in the midterms.---Or in math terms whether the voter distribution is still Gaussian or whether it has turned completely bimodal (like sportsfans).

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Re: Tulsi 2020: Anti-war Democrat says she’s running for US president

Post by IlliniDave » Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:33 pm

IDK about the dark web, Tulsi was first interviewed by Rogan 9 months ago, then it looks like she was on his show a second time a month back. I haven't seen either. More likely an appearance on Tucker Carlson the night after her debate made her more of a household name with non-progressives in the last week. I'm not sure many others in the Dem field have the courage to make those three appearances.

You seem to be implying that her slight elevation in stature is not due to merit on her part. I think you're selling her short.

All the candidates are blatantly veering waaaay left for the primary (except Bernie, he was always there). Biden has recently reversed some of his key centrist positions from over the years because they are currently intolerable to "the base". Every one of the candidates has positioned themselves left of Obama. The trick for the eventual nominee will be to lurch back to the right and run a completely different campaign once "the base" is no longer as important if she/he wants to peel off any Trump voters from the middle.

I don't think Gabbard would be able to do that (massive flip flop) because I think she is too honest. She's way too far left for me to consider voting for, and after the last 2.5 years I may never vote for a Democrat again.

I think Harris will prove to be the anointed one this year. The country defied the annointers last year by electing Trump, and the Dems just might defy them again by going with Biden despite his amazing string of gaffes so far. IMO Tulsi is the best in the field but she won't win the primary.

Voting the other side's primary is an age old trick to minimize downside exposure. The strategy would be to pick the candidate that is least at odds with the policies you favor. I don't think Gabbard is that for any Flyover Country independent/centrist. That's probably Biden assuming he'll flip flop again to cancel out his recent flip flops.

But it's hard to not agree with her on a lot of things, irrespective of who she talking with.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6urQjuO9eI

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Re: Tulsi 2020: Anti-war Democrat says she’s running for US president

Post by jacob » Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:33 pm

The Tucker Carlson explanation sounds the most plausible for moving the needle on the google search. Based on just the debates, I don't see her exchange with Ryan as providing materially new information to primary voters. Unlike the Harris--Biden exchange, this information was so to speak already baked into market price, that is, the pre-poll numbers.

Also noting, in terms of strategy, it seems like those who pre-polled highest all played defensively (Biden most of all), whereas the minor candidates went on the offense and tried to stand out by stirring the pot as hard as possible. The most interesting was the edge-zone, namely Harris, where the combination between offense and defense caused the greatest change. (Exception was Sanders, but he's always on the offensive ... thus his market price already reflects that.)

These debates seem kinda like battling for ELO rankings playing chess. If a candidate wants a major ranking increase, they have to beat a higher ranking opponent, like Harris beating Biden. Feuds between minor players are immaterial. This is also why all the big names (except, again Sanders) played defensively.

Adding: As far as I understand, round 2 (in July) will have the same barriers to entry as round 1. It's round 3 (in September?) where the required numbers double.

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Re: Tulsi 2020: Anti-war Democrat says she’s running for US president

Post by IlliniDave » Sun Jun 30, 2019 5:23 pm

Except the google search uptick that's made the news occurred during the debate, not the following day following the Carlson interview. Gabbard is pretty much an unknown to those who follow the MSM for the bulk of their insight into 2020 candidates, so it's not surprising people were curious. Sadly, I don't think information, materially new or otherwise, has much to do with it. It's who can stir peoples' emotion. In Gabbard's case, a well-reasoned, insightful desire to essentially reform the government, unfortunately won't do that (and Trump has basically trademarked "Drain the Swamp").

I agree on guys like Biden. He's got to find a way to win the primary without having to careen too far leftward and further damage his chances in the general. The best thing for him to do is just stand there, say as little as possible, and smile a lot, while hoping the identity politics don't destroy him.

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Re: Tulsi 2020: Anti-war Democrat says she’s running for US president

Post by ether » Sun Jun 30, 2019 5:35 pm

She is the only veteran running for president, right? Glad to see isolationism is still alive within the left

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Re: Tulsi 2020: Anti-war Democrat says she’s running for US president

Post by jacob » Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:41 am

@ether - There are 3 veterans running (listed in order of rank):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulsi_Gab ... ry_service (Major, Army National Guard, 1 tour in Iraq 2004, service years 2003--now)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seth_Moul ... ary_career (Captain, USMC, 4 tours in Iraq 2003-2008, service years 2001--2008)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Butt ... ry_service (Lieutenant, Navy Reserve, 1 tour in Afghanistan 2014, service years 2009--2017)

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Re: Tulsi 2020: Anti-war Democrat says she’s running for US president

Post by jennypenny » Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:44 am

Richard Vague is a fascinating guy. He's a Democrat, but very moderate and reasonable, especially coming out of Philly. He's a local for me, so I assumed talk of him running was just talk. He was on Kunstler's podcast this week though, and he sounds like he's still considering running. He's an older rich white guy which doesn't play well amongst Democrats but he's a Philly guy (meaning, could swing Pennsylvania) who's originally from Texas and might sway that state as well.

I would love to see him make a run. I'd vote for him in a heartbeat.

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