US Defaulting on debt

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unemployable
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Re: US Defaulting on debt

Post by unemployable »

trfie wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:10 am
I cry foul. Not only did he call the 2008 crash well in advance, but he specifically described what was going to cause it, the housing issue. There was no one at the time calling it - look at Ben Bernacke who said that the housing increase prices were based on solid fundamentals, look at all the experts.
Quite a few people called the 2008 recession and its severity. Jeremy Grantham, Bill Gross and John Paulson come to mind. And for several reasons it's a very bad idea for a Fed chairman to flat out say it.

suomalainen
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Re: US Defaulting on debt

Post by suomalainen »

trfie wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:18 am
he does not have to be right at some point.
Meh. Even if he's "wrong" about magnitude, which appears to be your point, he (like any human) will find a way to take credit for being right while explaining away discrepancies. I suspect he's only talking about a "mega recession that will be worse than the Great Depression" for click-bait, for lack of a better term. It's like when Trump uses superlatives to describe the most mundane thing - just trying to drum up attention.

prognastat
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Re: US Defaulting on debt

Post by prognastat »

trfie wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:12 am
This is really bad logic because it can be applied to almost anything. Doesn't jacob have a vested interest pushing frugal ideas so he can sell more copies of his book? Isn't it possible all the people in the investment threads in this forum own the investments they are pushing? Maybe we should all stop using this forum?
I would say it is part of the full picture, that wasn't the only point I and others made. Most of us agree another recession is coming, given our economic system it is inevitable. That doesn't change the fact that he uses just about every of his appearances to sell his personal solution to the problems he is claiming once which he benefits through. But also the fact that he has been saying this since the market began recovering after the last crash some 9 years ago.

If you can't make an accurate prediction as to when, he has predicting another huge crash for almost a decade now, then even if you are right about the how(which also is to be seen if he is this time) your prediction is still useless and worse yet counterproductive. As I said if I had listened to his advice when I first heard from him I would be far worse off and he would have been better off.

As for a comparison between Jacob and him I don't really see it. I don't see Jacob constantly trying to sell his book as the way to solve your problems. He gives most of the information away for free through his blog posts and now his participation in discussion surrounding these topics on this very forum.

arcyallen
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Re: US Defaulting on debt

Post by arcyallen »

trfie wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:18 am
There is no reason that recessions are inevitable, it would be possible to have slow rates of growth indefinitely.
I think the only way this would happen is if all the (manic) humans died and the reasonable robots took over. Something to look forward to, I suppose. Oh wait...

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Jean
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Re: US Defaulting on debt

Post by Jean »

We just have to stop tolerating fake credits (see frb topic) and it would stop.

Sid
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Re: US Defaulting on debt

Post by Sid »

In that case bring on the default!

trfie
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Re: US Defaulting on debt

Post by trfie »

Riggerjack wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:51 am
Amen, brother. Let me know when this happens. Or even a viable plan for how.
?? I never said it is going to happen. The point it that to know if Schiff is right or wrong, the context, and the timeline, you have to have the correct framework. Schiff believes in the gold standard. So if the US government slashed its debt and went to a gold standard, obviously Schiff would no longer be calling for a mega-recession to happen.
Riggerjack wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:51 am
Citation needed. You gotta stop camping on that bong, man.

Thanks for the morning chuckle, but I'm afraid that's all I got from that. You have a lot of bold statements, but I'm not seeing any backup. If you can make a case for no recessions, I am listening.
Do you think the 2008 financial crisis was an act of God? How about the 2000 recession? Assignment: Randomly pick 10 recessions from history, study them and their causes, and tell me your conclusions.
Or study Naked Economics by Wheelen. The point was made there.
Or explain why the frequency and duration of recessions has been steadily decreasing over the past 150 years.


unemployable wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:16 am


Quite a few people called the 2008 recession and its severity. Jeremy Grantham, Bill Gross and John Paulson come to mind. And for several reasons it's a very bad idea for a Fed chairman to flat out say it.
I do not consider 5 persons out of 7 billion as "quite a few people" who called the 2008 recession in advance. And there being a handful who successfully called it has nothing to do with Schiff being wrong. Regarding Bernacke, there was a videoclip of him discussing the topic before the recession and he was clearly oblivious to it happening, not disingenuous. I do not believe there is any extant evidence that Bernacke saw it coming.

trfie
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Re: US Defaulting on debt

Post by trfie »

prognastat wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:43 am
I would say it is part of the full picture, that wasn't the only point I and others made.
It does not matter whether it is part of the full picture or not, having a vested interest is not a valid point.
prognastat wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:43 am
Most of us agree another recession is coming, given our economic system it is inevitable. That doesn't change the fact that he uses just about every of his appearances to sell his personal solution to the problems he is claiming once which he benefits through.
This is a different point, with which I agree. But it does not mean that he is being dishonest. If he earnestly believed in what he is espousing, he is helping everyone tremendously if they take his advice.
prognastat wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:43 am
But also the fact that he has been saying this since the market began recovering after the last crash some 9 years ago. If you can't make an accurate prediction as to when, he has predicting another huge crash for almost a decade now, then even if you are right about the how(which also is to be seen if he is this time) your prediction is still useless and worse yet counterproductive.
Agree, I never argued the counterpoint.

Riggerjack
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Re: US Defaulting on debt

Post by Riggerjack »

@trfie,

Maybe you should check out Peter Shiff's interview on Joe Rogan. I found him far less convincing, and merely more convinced, when questioned. YMMV.

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