I am not saying that they have hit max density. I am trying to show how a linear increase in density, has expotential increase in costs.
But your examples of room to grow bring up another facet of the problem.
it requires the assumption that all housing is already at max mechanical/electrical efficiency. A lot of the buildings in NYC are old and could be rebuilt so that each housing unit requires less energy and water thereby offsetting the increased density. And there are zombie homes in NYC where no one is living; the houses are too dilapidated. Max density before diminishing returns hasn't been reached.
I don't assume this at all. Very clearly more density can be achieved, simply look at more dense cities. I am saying the infrastructure was built for lower density, and the rate of growth determines how much or little of the infrastructure is going to work as desired under the new conditions.
If I think I will be single forever, and plan my ERE fund accordingly; then retire and marry into a family, the infrastructure I have planned for my life will not work at the new demand level.
But that's no big deal, I have the skills and time to expand my portfolio until it will cover the new needs. My infrastructure was inadequate, but I resolved this at a similar rate as I built the initial portfolio at.
But this is because money is fungible. Most physical infrastructure is not.
If the sewer pipe won't handle the new requirements, it needs to be replaced or the sewage load needs to be split among multiple existing pipes (not easy but sometimes a viable short term fix). To replace the sewer pipe means tearing up the street, and often damaging other systems of infrastructure at the same time.
Was the sewer used for the life of the pipe? No.
Was the street pavement at the end of it's life? No.
Were the local businesses working at their normal capacity while this is happening? No.
Did traffic flow as well as it used to while all of this is happening? No.
Will emergency services respond in the same time if they need to respond to this area? No.
Do you see the pattern? When the rate of growth in population exceeds the planned rate of growth, the existing infrastructure experiences a vastly increased depreciation schedule.
Max efficiency has absolutely nothing to do with the situation.
Increasing growth rates destroy the efficiency of existing infrastructure.
Hence why I said dumping 25k employees and their dependents will make the NYC budget worse, not better, regardless of the massive tax revenue they will generate.
Physically, they weren't planned for, so they increase depreciation of infrastructure.
Financially, they will increase COL in the local area.
And both of those issues are completely unaddressed in the deal. I don't care about a few billion dollars in tax breaks, that's the least of the unaccounted costs.
And now I'm going to take a break from talking about infrastructure, and thank you for continuing to let me try to explain the way I see the issue.
I am among the least formally educated regulars on this forum, having skipped out of HS early, to take a credit in scuba diving at the local community college. Then I was done with school. Not because I didn't like class, but because I could escape captivity with students.
And this gets very clear when I try to
view a very complex and variegated and interesting discussion with global repercussions through the heuristic of the fact that you apparently lay cable for a fucking living.
I should point out that I only have theory (mostly garnered online) that I apply to the world I see. And I definitely see the world from a different vantage point than most.
So I'm not sure if I am right, and not trying to convince you that I am. I am trying to describe what I see, by trying to get you to look at things as I see them, in hopes that you can show me where I am wrong. It's got to look like I'm flip flopping all over the place, and that would have to be very frustrating for you.
But what I'm try to do is get you to look at the issue from a similar perspective. It all locks into place from here. I haven't found anything that doesn't fit, or make sense, as I understand it. I am hoping you can stand close to where I am, and point out a huge blind spot for me, because I can't do it myself. I can't see what I don't see.
It really highlights to me, how bad I am at communicating.
Thank you for not giving up on this thread.