Investments Trade Log

Ask your investment, budget, and other money related questions here
Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:16 pm

jacob wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:35 pm
PG&E (PCG) will file for bankruptcy following potential liabilities from wildfires in 2018 and 2017. This wipes out 17B+ of market value + the equity.

Thanks #climatechange
No skin in the game.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/01/14/ ... ankruptcy/

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:29 pm

S&P Global Ratings reports the cost in lost productivity due to the shutdown was 6B+
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... PJ2MU?il=0

So back of the envelope: Spread over 35 days, that's 6000M/35=171M/day. To put that in perspective, US GDP (2017) was 19390B or 19390000/365=53123M/day. The shutdown thus caused a GDP drag of 171/53123=0.3%. Expect quarterly GDP to be ~0.08% lower than it would otherwise have been.

For financial markets, this reduction in earnings (even trading at at P/E leverage of ~20) will likely mean less than the market's interpretation of how all this went down.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:45 pm

Grant Williams a guest on MacroVoices (where I also found Chris Cole).

Crony capitalism, populism, violence, the outlook for gold.

Per outlook from Williams (Townsend disagrees), you only need enough dollars to survive the dollar short-squeeze. A strong dollar/worldwide deflation benefits no one, not America, not China, and will eventually be stamped out.

https://www.macrovoices.com/

I am long firearms and canned food.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:18 am

Neil Howe of “Fourth Turning” fame on Hedgeye TV.

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/72933- ... type=macro

I am short complacency and long a good sense of humor.

To break up the monotony, here is the Constant Agony of Hans Moleman. The plight of Dr. Fisker is at 2m18s.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fVtrlLeuFvY

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:51 am

I took my previous screen (see above) and added a condition for low institutional (that means pension funds, mutual funds, ...) ownership to reduce index exposure as many indexes are float-adjusted.

The screen now returns only 3 viable candidates :shock: ... out of some 8000+. That's a new low.

Also observing that ever since the Powell made some dowish statements, CD yields are no longer increasing/not as high as they were 3 months ago.

slowtraveler
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by slowtraveler » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:13 pm

@ Jacob, can I ask what those companies are?

I did the screen you recommend through ValueLine and found 0 matches...

https://imgur.com/a/hlZMTkF

Douglas
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Douglas » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:59 am

I bought KHC after it tanked. It was my first stock purchase in a company. I have a feeling my initial stock picking strategy will be "bottom feeder" but maybe I will get more sophisticated over time.

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom » Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:26 am

@Douglas

I guess I sold mine to you. I was wondering who bought it.

The SEC starts poking around it their books and all of a sudden they are taking massive writedowns. If you ask me something fishy is going on there.

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:54 am

I bought some Suez Environnement at 11.4 euros, one of the world's largest waste management and water treatment utilities, with close ties to the even bigger Engie (renewables)
slowtraveler wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:13 pm
@ Jacob, can I ask what those companies are?

I did the screen you recommend through ValueLine and found 0 matches...

https://imgur.com/a/hlZMTkF
may I ask you how do you get to perform those searches? is it a paid service?
thanks

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jennypenny
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny » Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:09 am

I'm buying into Lyft. I don't think it's overhyped. Disney chose them to provide their onsite ride-share service and recently expanded it. It's a big endorsement and an interesting model that I think other businesses might adopt. I'm sure the weeks after the IPO will be rocky with this kind of hype, but I'm long so I'll ride it out.

eta: I'm not getting in on the IPO -- I don't have that kind of clout and there's probably too much institutional interest anyway. I'll get in as early as I can though.

prognastat
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by prognastat » Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:05 am

I'm still dubious on the ride sharing apps and their viability.

They're a pretty good deal for consumers/users, but they aren't making much money, deal with a lot of legislative and marketing costs and are a pretty crap deal for the drivers.

The only way I foresee they could actually take off in value is if they do manage to create an automated driving fleet(which they are investing in) driving their operating costs way down.

Chris
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chris » Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:32 pm

It's true that the ride sharing companies aren't yet profitable. But I think that the pricing is currently too low, thanks to the prolific amount of VC funds available, and the need to create a market of riders and drivers. As an occasional rider myself, I wouldn't have a problem paying 50% more than a cab would cost, since the experience of using Lyft is better than a cab. For early adoption, I think price was important, but most people are sold on the concept now. Also, public transit systems (at least around here) are increasing their prices, reducing the price difference between ride sharing and alternatives.

For Lyft specifically, they have some cool plans for multimode transportation via their app, which is why they acquired bike sharing operations in NYC, SF, Chicago, and other cities.

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jennypenny
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny » Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:07 pm

Why Disney chose Lyft over Uber

"Unlike more typical experiences through Lyft, the vehicles are driven by Disney employees, rather than freelance drivers, and the cars are owned by Disney."

Lyft is a ride and payment facilitator (through Lyft's app) but not responsible for the drivers or vehicles. The drivers were recently cleared to join the Teamsters union.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:12 pm

The treasury yield curve just inverted for the first time since 2007. This is often seen as a harbinger for recession. It happens when serious investors believe that long bonds offer a better return than equities. This drives their prices up and thus the yield down. The short rate is just a relative reference point relative to the secular trend.

Another way of seeing it is that the red line crossed the light blue line.
https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php
Within this framework, it does not necessarily signal a recession as much as it indicates that markets are unusually pricey (relative to bonds).

Another way of seeing that is that the short rate is too high relative to the overvalued stocks. Hence prob. also why the fed put a damper on the hikes. They've truly backed themselves into a [very profitable for contrarians] corner.

BadHorse
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by BadHorse » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:52 am

jacob wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:12 pm
Another way of seeing that is that the short rate is too high relative to the overvalued stocks. Hence prob. also why the fed put a damper on the hikes. They've truly backed themselves into a [very profitable for contrarians] corner.
Who would be the contrarians in this scenario?

In related news, the Danish mortgage rates are getting absurdly low:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... in-denmark
Though I hate the thought of having debt, I'm seriously starting to consider borrowing and letting inflation gnaw away at the debt. Seems central banks will do anything to avoid deflation.

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:18 am

so many things I do not understand in bonds.
Who would lend money over a 30 year timeframe if he/she could receive the same yield over a 1-2 years timeframe?
Europe: what is the point for any investor to lend money and receive LESS of it back in 5 years from now, when one could park the same cash in a guaranteed CD and get a (minimal but still positive) return?
I'm genuinely curious as to what is the thought process of anybody other than central banks to buy these products.
Literally: "I'm going to do this instead of that because..."?
It seems so idiotic that I am sure I'm missing something.

@BadHorse
It's never been a better moment to open a mortgage, but that's kinda why housing is on the expensive side in many places in Europe.

George the original one
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:51 pm

Seppia wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:18 am
It seems so idiotic that I am sure I'm missing something.
Think of the price of the bond rather than the yield. So as the yield goes down, the bond price goes up (dramatically). Now add in using leverage to buy those bonds...

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:24 pm

I always exclude pure speculation as a reason to buy something. I should try to stop seeing things only through the lenses of my own logic.
Thanks G

oldbeyond
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by oldbeyond » Sun Mar 24, 2019 3:26 am

@Seppia: I guess there's also a lot of institutional investors (banks, insurance companies etc) who are compelled by regulations to hold "risk free" assets. Also central banks own 15-20% of Eurozone sovereign bond markets (as an example). As consumers we get treated a bit differently. In SEK I could get a CD for 5 years at 1,9% (with deposit insurance) or buy a 5-year government bond for -0.22%, so my choice is easy, but the CD would be a bit harder to get if I had a few billion to park ;)

Basically at this point, apart from trading the swings, it seems like the only way to profit on European bonds would be a healthy serving of deflation or speculating on the Euro breaking up (betting that new German/Dutch etc currencies would appreciate).

oldbeyond
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by oldbeyond » Sun Mar 24, 2019 3:40 am

For stocks, I think Hussman (for all his failings in timing) makes some interesting points. Right now P/E:s do not seem all that bad if you take the forward E. But margins tend to mean revert (they've been high recently), and if the economy cools that will also lower earnings. I guess this is the value of market cap/GDP and other such measures - not only multiples but also earnings mean revert. Also, pointing at low discount rates as motivating high prices, but then assuming the long run growth rate in the short/medium term doesn't seem very honest. Rates are low for a reason - because growth is relatively low.

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