Subject: China Travel Advisory: Level 2: Exercise increased caution, January 3, 2019

Move along, nothing to see here!
chenda
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Re: Subject: China Travel Advisory: Level 2: Exercise increased caution, January 3, 2019

Post by chenda » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:40 am

I think geography is only one factor, demographic size is probably more relevant for China which is so vast it has cities larger than Canada or Australia, which the communist party like to emphasise when arguing that western style government wouldn't work on such a enermous scale.

It's interesting to compare China with India, which is the only country of comparable sized population. Both became independent at about the same time ('47 and '49) both went through major crisis, but India has maintained a democratic system. India has only a third the land size and a more evenly distributed population (though the cultivated area is similar to China) and much more fragmented on ethic, religious and linguistic lines. But China has significantly outperformed India economically in the last few decades.

It may be China eventually develops it own unique political system, which could offer an alternative to western models.

Augustus
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Re: Subject: China Travel Advisory: Level 2: Exercise increased caution, January 3, 2019

Post by Augustus » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:57 am

chenda wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:40 am
India has only a third the land size and a more evenly distributed population (though the cultivated area is similar to China) and much more fragmented on ethic, religious and linguistic lines. But China has significantly outperformed India economically in the last few decades.
There's a lot more nuance than just labeling something a democracy or "communist." China isn't really communist anymore, my wife grew up there, and she says we're more communist than China is now. The whole job for life, share things, etc ideas are all gone. They don't have welfare, my wife is always astounded that we waste the money on it, etc. They're more state controlled capitalism, everyone in china is rushing and struggling to get educated and get skilled to get jobs so they can make money and buy things, competition is insane over there. One of the problem with state directed economies is massive inefficiency, like building an entire city for millions of people that no one wants to live in and doing it all WITH DEBT: https://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/chi ... 404-h0ybjz (I believe 30% of Chinese GDP is real estate right now, and most of it is just a giant bubble that the government wont let pop, because the government officials own real estate and they don't want their wealth to disappear).

From what I've heard about India their main problem is corruption and education. They're still trying to get the masses to not shit where they eat, it's a serious problem, people get sick and die all the time because people like to take dumps in the fields near their houses and don't want to build/use latrines. It sounds like the local head honchos like to embezzle public funds for infrastructure.

Augustus
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Re: Subject: China Travel Advisory: Level 2: Exercise increased caution, January 3, 2019

Post by Augustus » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:41 pm

Hmm, more cause for concern:
https://www.france24.com/en/20190115-co ... ver-taiwan
A senior Chinese military official warned the US Navy Tuesday against any "interference" in support of Taiwan's independence, saying that Beijing would defend its claim to the island "at any cost".
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1P92TP
The senior U.S. defense intelligence official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity, did not predict that China’s military, known as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), would take such a step but said such a possibility was the top worry as China expands and modernizes its military capabilities.

“The biggest concern is that ... they are getting to a point where the PLA leadership may actually tell Xi Jinping that they are confident in their capabilities,” the official said, referring to China’s president.
Rand also scores chinese military in the asian region as at parity with the united states, which means that in a shooting war we would be evenly matched and either side could win. https://www.rand.org/paf/projects/us-ch ... ecard.html

It's in the realm of real possibility that there could be a shooting war between the US and China in the near future, given that xi jinping is kind of a bad ass and is very aggressive. This could return the world to cold war era levels of aggression, or worse.

For perspective, our military aid to taiwan is equivilant to the russians putting nukes in cuba.

classical_Liberal
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Re: Subject: China Travel Advisory: Level 2: Exercise increased caution, January 3, 2019

Post by classical_Liberal » Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:12 am

Augustus wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:41 pm
For perspective, our military aid to taiwan is equivilant to the russians putting nukes in cuba.
I don't like that analogy. The USSR was never a major trading partner, nor were they the largest holders of US treasuries. The current state of affairs with China is no where near a similar state of 1960's USA/USSR. It's like comparing between an arch nemesis and reluctant acquaintance. The base state of fear and trust/distrust is completely different.


Augustus
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Re: Subject: China Travel Advisory: Level 2: Exercise increased caution, January 3, 2019

Post by Augustus » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:17 am

classical_Liberal wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:12 am
Yeah, equivalent was a bad choice of words. Many people ask why Taiwan is a big deal to China. It's effectively their Cuba, and we have a bunch of weapons and advisors on it. They have a big reason to kick us out and use force to do it.

Augustus
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Re: Subject: China Travel Advisory: Level 2: Exercise increased caution, January 3, 2019

Post by Augustus » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:19 am

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:24 am
To be fair, they've been killing drug dealers for years. Certain types of crimes, after your trial, you're literally taken out back and shot in the head with an AK. Don't mess with drugs in much of Asia.

fiby41
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Re: Subject: China Travel Advisory: Level 2: Exercise increased caution, January 3, 2019

Post by fiby41 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:32 am

Augustus wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:19 am
Don't mess with drugs in much of Asia.
They sure learned fast from the Opium Wars.

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