The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Chad wrote:
Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:06 am
Also, who is saying they want a nobility?
I do.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g28pOEo0OKE

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

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Campitor
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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

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wolf wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:37 am
found on youtube
https://youtu.be/a2-IwnoTrOI
A string of declarative statements with no evidence to back up his claim. First it was the 1% that was the problem, now it's the 9.9% that is the problem, and next it will be the next income bracket when this argument doesn't gain any traction either.


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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by jacob »

Haidt is often used to suggest that somehow conservatives are more morally rich/nuanced than liberals, but that's an oversimplifcation. According to Greene, Haidt's "conservative" allocation of the moral foundations (equally distributed between care, fairness, loyalty, authority, and purity) is about what's morally required for different individuals to function in groups. Whereas the "liberal" allocation of the moral foundations (restricted to care and fairness) is about what's morally required for different groups to function in society.

See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kfrSgPUvvI (go to 14:30 or the part about meta-morality or 'common currency'.

Or read the book: https://www.amazon.com/Moral-Tribes-Emo ... 143126059/ for much more detail.

This explains why urban people tend to be liberal: When there are people from different groups living right next door, one cannot insist on things like purity, authority, and loyalty without conflict. For example, I might belong to one group, but I live right next door to someone who belongs to a different group. Thus, I have to be considerate (fairness+care) of out-groups. At the same time I have to reduce the value of loyalty, authority, and purity as far as interacting with others are concerned lest I start a neighbor-feud or get into a bar-fight. Therefore urban morality is essentially the intersection in Venn diagram of the different moralities of the various groups. One thing all groups can maybe agree on is to treat other groups fairly. However, it would be very difficult for two different groups to agree on who to be loyal to or who is the authority.

Since population density in rural areas is low, there is no conflict with out-groups having different values. Therefore, values like loyalty or authority does not interfere with one's neighbors because they belong to the same group, not a different group.

Greene calls it a meta-morality (suggesting that liberals are more morally advanced than conservatives) but I think it's just an expression of humans living at higher densities and needing and habituating to overriding their tribal instincts because people are basically forced to get along when they live close to others. Humans tend to be 66/33 (conservatives/liberals) at low population density. As we move towards the city, once density exceeds 400 people/square mile, the ratio begins to change. 50/50 is reached at ~800 people/square mile after which people become predominantly liberal going towards 10/90. The higher the density, the more liberals there are. See first graph: http://davetroy.com/posts/the-real-repu ... on-density ... as the link notes: red state values are simply incompatible with density. Well, at least we have observed data and a possible theory for that claim.

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

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Given that we have a significant libertarian or libertarian-sympathetic contingent here in ERE land, can I posit a wrinkle in your theory Jacob?

The amenities offered in urban areas usually exceed amenities offered in rural areas a good deal. Personally I enjoy the urban amenities a good deal. I like being in a place where a lot of things are going on and there are a lot of women to date. However, with those increased amenities comes an increased cost. Because, of course, everyone wants the amenities.

My personal choice (and forgive me if my take is heavy on my personal psychology) has been to live outside of urban areas or to only live in urban areas when I have a major financial incentive (job) there. This is because I am intentionally trying to run up as large a surplus/savings rate as possible. The idea that I can move to the city, without a job there or a prospect of a job, for the purpose of enjoying the amenities, to me seems grossly irresponsible. That is very rational and ERE-like.

I would very much like to live in a happening urban area with great amenities, but I have made the conscious decision to forego said amenities to have a high savings rate. So it irks me a great deal when I see my “peers” make the conscious decision to enjoy the amenities and have a no savings/negative savings rate, and then complain afterwards that they are broke. They want to have their cake and eat it to.

However, many of those who are not “rationals” will choose to live in urban areas even if it is very financially self-destructive to do so, because “they cannot live without the amenities.” (They want the amenities for free.) Is it any surprise that waiters and struggling actors and Uber drivers in urban areas are liberal? It is in their self-interest to be so. It does not matter to them that the urban area is already saturated with waiters and struggling actors and Uber drivers, and that they are not adding all that much value to the community themselves, and that they are very easily replaceable. The world revolves around them- and they want the amenities. And they want someone else to pay for it.

That’s how I feel about it.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by Campitor »

@Jacob

Interesting video by Josh Greene. I agree with his recommendation of a meta-morality. I would need to see more data regarding the reason why cities tend to be more liberal. Correlation doesn't equal causation but perhaps the book you linked provides the data for dense populations being liberal.

Or maybe cities being the largest beneficiaries of state supplied money and services, is more beholden to a small minority that happen to be liberal minded. Attitudes get adjusted to liberal ideology, at least in public, unless you want to become a social pariah and unemployed. And if population density = liberal, why would Oklahoma City be so conservative? Perhaps those in power running government are conservative and keep the populace beholden/indoctrinated with conservative views?
This explains why urban people tend to be liberal: When there are people from different groups living right next door, one cannot insist on things like purity, authority, and loyalty without conflict. For example, I might belong to one group, but I live right next door to someone who belongs to a different group. Thus, I have to be considerate (fairness+care) of out-groups. At the same time I have to reduce the value of loyalty, authority, and purity as far as interacting with others are concerned lest I start a neighbor-feud or get into a bar-fight.
I would say that liberals have been negligent in their open-mindedness lately and at the expense of attacking members of their own group who may diverge from their liberal dogma. Being narrow minded and intolerant isn't regulated to just conservatives. I believe most liberals and conservatives have more in common politically than they realize and the greatest and most hotly contested divergences are between the ultra left and right.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by jacob »

There's AFAIR no discussion of density in Greene's book.

Oklahoma City is specifically mentioned in the last link. Basically the argument is that it doesn't really reach the density of a real city.
the last link wrote: Atlanta, New Orleans, St. Louis, Dallas, and Indianapolis are all in red states — and they all voted blue. And there are no true “cities” in red states that voted red. The only cities in red states that didn’t vote blue were Salt Lake City and Oklahoma City. And by global standards, they are not really cities — each has population density (about 1,000/sq. mi.) less than suburban Maryland (about 1,500/sq. mi.).
FWIW, the population density where I live is 14,000/sq mi --- so 14x the density of Oklahoma City --- and that's 8 miles from downtown Chicago.

To add some more data/cover some points above:

People generally drift to cities because cities are more productive. This has held since cities were invented and it can be argued that this is the very reason why cities were invented. The larger the city, the greater productivity per capita. See e.g. https://www.citymetric.com/business/cit ... ritish-782 by the guy who wrote Scale which has been mentioned in another thread. Even if you're a mime or an uber driver you'll make more living in Chicago than you would being a mime or uber driver in the sticks.

Another data point is that counties that went to Clinton in 2016 are responsible for 2/3 of US GDP vs 1/3 of US GDP coming from Trump counties. That's because the counties that went to Clinton are pretty much every single city (minus the two mentioned above). http://metrocosm.com/election-2016-map-3d/ (note: the taller, the bluer)

Because they make twice as much money, blue states also pay more in in federal taxes at a similar ratio. http://thefederalist.com/2017/11/17/red ... ax-makers/

Also note that US left-left (think Bernie) looks towards Europe with its much higher population density for policy inspiration and aspiration. The reason the US is comparably to the right [of Europe] is a) a below average pop density; and b) the federal system with the electoral college/senate which favors land-count vote rather than head-count vote making it possible for the right to hang on despite losing the head-count vote more often than not. (Same reason some countries in the EU enjoy more power than their size otherwise warrant.)

That's not a complete theory of politics and morality, but it's certainly a lot of very interesting correlations that all fit together...

But I think I'm drifting way off thread here.

To bring it back, I think the 9.9 percenters best personal strategy would seem to be to live outside the city in a gated area, maybe with guards. It's the historically tried and true way. Castle on the hill, away from the teeming masses. This, incidentally is also what they do now. In Brazil, having armed guards outside is normal. In the US, there's just a rent-a-cop asking for your ID and signature in the guest-log, either at the gate or at the entrance of fancy high-rises. Whereas the best public strategy would be a controlled reversion of the Gini index before it gets reverted catastrophically. (It's mean reverting.)

I have yet to figure out where FIRE sits in all this. If it takes $1.2M to be in the 9.9%, then the NW of regular FIRE is right around being in the 9.9% and for the most part all FIRE would definitely be in the 19.9%. OTOH, in terms of spending habits, we're more in the bottom 20%... so the question is whether stability is derived from differences in wealth or difference in income. I suspect it's more of the latter.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by IlliniDave »

jacob wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:56 pm

To bring it back, I think the 9.9 percenters best personal strategy would seem to be to live outside the city in a gated area, maybe with guards. It's the historically tried and true way. Castle on the hill, away from the teeming masses.
As you pointed out, you certainly see a lot of that now where the real wealth on a per capita basis is clustered in the suburban counties surrounding large metro areas (though the uberwealthy can effectively carve out their own micro-suburbs within a city's borders), with the wealthiest counties disproportionately huddled around Washington DC. Many of them are purple counties though on balance they probably lean blue. Interestingly such voluntary segregation tends to isolate the wealthy from the impacts of real world policies that stem from their voting tendencies. That's true for wealthy blue voters as well as wealthy red voters.

Just a guess but I'd bet the deepest colored of the tallest bars on the relevant election map are not dense populations of high education/income/morally ascendant individuals. For generations the blue team has had superior organization and branding that appeals to poorer urban populations. The deepest red is generally in the lowest bar, poorest rural areas, which while not having a lot of GDP do feed all the tall bars. One of the "quirks" of the US system is that its founders took steps to make it more difficult for urban populations to rule over rural populations and large states to rule over small. I don't think it's a bad system, although for now the Socialists feel it thwarts them and so it is increasingly under attack. It will be interesting to see how things go later this fall and in 2020 if the economy holds together.

I am skeptical that Socialism could work on a US-sized scale (history has not reflected well on the possibility) or even have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too socialism that exists successfully in small pockets of Europe. In the US individual states could pursue the latter if they wanted, and some do to a degree, but in the US socialism-with-someone-else's-money and/or forcing socialism on people that don't want it seems to be what's most popular, which makes me concerned about what the motivation for it truly is.

It would be good I think to pinch the wealth gap a little, although it appears some inequality is necessary for overall growth. In the past that was done in the US with heavy-handed tax policy because I think, ironically, people feared the rise of Socialism in the US. Guys like Bernie think we can go back to that pre-WWII era socialist flavor and double down on it. I think he is more benign than many of his neighbors on the far far left.

I think FIRE and maybe more so ERE don't fit into this at all because it goes somewhat against what is viewed as the ultimate goal: maximizing spending as a univariate measure. I tend to prioritize wealth because at least for now wealth is out of the government's revenue expansion cross hairs (and thereby the Socialists' short-term redistribution cross hairs) until I die. Then, having a cake, I can eat it very slowly.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by Solvent »

I have guards, but they're not armed. I guess the federal police with AK47s on every street corner subsume that need. AMA...

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by Riggerjack »

@ Jacob

You say:
People generally drift to cities because cities are more productive. This has held since cities were invented and it can be argued that this is the very reason why cities were invented. The larger the city, the greater productivity per capita. See e.g. https://www.citymetric.com/business/cit ... ritish-782 by the guy who wrote Scale which has been mentioned in another thread. Even if you're a mime or an uber driver you'll make more living in Chicago than you would being a mime or uber driver in the sticks.
But I hear:
People generally drift to cities because cities are more consumptive. This has held since cities were invented and it can be argued that this is the very reason why cities were invented. The larger the city, the greater consumption per capita. See e.g. https://www.citymetric.com/business/cit ... ritish-782 by the guy who wrote Scale which has been mentioned in another thread. Even if you're a mime or an uber driver you'll use more living in Chicago than you would being a mime or uber driver in the sticks.

And I wonder what the ratio between the increased consumption and increased productivity is? City folks are more productive. And less able. It's a trade-off, like everything else in life.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by BRUTE »

Solvent wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:30 am
I have guards, but they're not armed. I guess the federal police with AK47s on every street corner subsume that need. AMA...
does Solvent care to elaborate?

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by BRUTE »

Riggerjack wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:54 am
But I hear: consumptive.
more consumption per square foot maybe, but per capita? brute has read that cities consume less per capita than rural areas, because everything is closer together and greater efficiencies are possible. brute remembers riggerjack arguing about uncounted externalities, but doesn't remember if that was addressed in the study.

certainly there is a greater specialization/division of labor. that's probably one of the reasons that productivity is higher.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by Jin+Guice »

I just read the original article (made it to part 5 anyway) and the thread (made it to about page 7 before I skimmed my way to the end)... Interesting that this veered off into a left v. right political debate so quickly, though the education debate and minmax portions were interesting. The meandering forum discussion is also much more interesting than the original article.

Commenting on the article:

1. Jesus dude, we get it. You're rich, you feel bad about it, you've cooked up a moderately interesting theory about a new educated elite that basically already existed. Next time maybe you could keep it to a page or less unless you've got something to say.
2. Anecdotally, I have observed this phenomenon in many of my friends, where the Ivy League high achievers have doors open to them that others don't and obsessively make plans to pass this on to their (mostly) unborn children.
but,
3. From an ERE perspective (at least the version of it that exists in my head) the 9.9%ers have it the worst. Are these not the corporate lawyers working 80-100 hours a week and making in the low six figures, only to blow it all on over-educated nannies and McMansions in the Hamptons that we're basically always making fun of? Theoretically they have it better due to more opportunities/ higher income, but do they in practice?


In my extremely limited experience of sharing my ERE/ FIRE plans with others, the educational elite are the least receptive and the most married to the narrative of "no one in our generation can retire ever." (I am a Millennial or as I like to call it The Greatest Generation).

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by BRUTE »

Jin+Guice wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:30 pm
The Greatest Generation
ERROR: Identifier already in use
> |

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by Riggerjack »

more consumption per square foot maybe, but per capita? brute has read that cities consume less per capita than rural areas, because everything is closer together and greater efficiencies are possible. brute remembers riggerjack arguing about uncounted externalities, but doesn't remember if that was addressed in the study
Ok. Step back. More money going to people in cities, yet similar average lifestyle, more or less. Equally little saving, is the point.

So where does the productivity go? COL in the form of more options, taxes and rent (or property values). If there's anything else city folk are doing with this increased productivity, I missed it.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by Riggerjack »

I'm just using a model that looks like: productivity-(consumption+taxes+COL+rent+X)= social benefit

City folk have higher productivity. This is expressed as higher income. But they aren't saving it, so they are consuming more, but from the outside, quality of life is similar. Not the same by any stretch, but similar. So, if they aren't consuming more, where does the money go? Where does the productivity go? From here, it seems like city folk have simply spent it on not having to do anything but their specialized skill, in exchange for other people cooking for them, and lighting up the streets at night.

You tell me, what is the X that makes this equation balance out?

Is there some secret stash of productivity we keep stored in the city sewer for emergency? Or does it all go to rent, taxes and happy meals? From here, it looks like people are getting what they want, but it doesn't look like anything we should emulate. It looks like the opposite of what they say they want, but I am learning to let them have it, and try to stop objecting.

Besides, maybe I am just missing something.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by BRUTE »

there sure are lots of ways to spend more money in cities than in the country. brute still thinks there is lots of money to be saved in cities, even with high rents.

brute has certain qualms with cities, namely that there are always sick humans around, happy to infect the entire room with their virus, many of the biggest cities (in the US at least) are dirty, lots of homelessness, decrepit buildings galore. sure feels like if there is wealth, it's not going around.

but there is certainly wealth.

maybe, unlike Riggerjack, city-dwellers are not optimizing for social benefit but for their own personal savings and hedonism.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by jacob »

@Riggerjack - Cities actually are saving it. In the form of bricks, steel, ... in terms of stuff in - stuff out (e.g. in the form of products, garbage, and sewerage), cities are accreting material. (I forget where I read it, but the number of tonnes/year/capita is LARGE). Every time a new house gets built in the city, that stuff had to come from somewhere and on the net, it stays in the city. In other words, cities are getting heavier and heavier. Thinking in terms of stocks and flows (and preserved quantities), this means that the net material flow is inwards and it is getting stocked up.

What flows out of cities are services, industrial products, high tech products, administration, ...

What flows into cities is food, water, fuels, raw resources, low tech products, commodities, ...

So it's not much different from the relationship between the first world (high GDP/capita) and the third world (low GDP/capita).
Which are more "productive" here? That's probably not the right question as it should be: "Who is getting paid?"(*)

However, it's clear that we quickly have to move to vector-flows if we are to describe all these different flows. (This can lead to annoying debate if one flow will be deemed more relevant than the other, etc. etc.) We do know that money is used to value all of them but that just gives us a first order approximation.

(*) Is a 9.9% plastic surgeon who makes $250k/year more or less productive than an apple picker who makes $8k/year? Does it make a difference if the plastic surgeon has a savings rate of 0% while the apple picker saves 50%?

What you're asking is not whether cities are more productive but whether they add net value. That's a complex question.

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Re: The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy

Post by Riggerjack »

No. What I am asking, is what value you (Jacob) place on this productivity.

As near as I can tell, it has no value. Increased productivity results in increased per capita income. There is no more saving going on in cities than in the sticks. So the vast majority of this excess is consumed.

Consumed as taxes. As rent. As fruitful opportunities to squander wealth. I don't object to that (or at least I am trying), I am trying to find what you find appealing in this. It seems quite anti Jacobian, so I assume I am missing something.

I'm not trying to approach this from an economic perspective. I'm trying to understand the appeal of cities, so I am asking people who can articulate such things in terms I can understand.

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