Would you rather have 300k or a place to live forever?
@jacob
Here, you use the guideline that a house should cost less than 110 monthly rents, referring to "the NAV formula." The NY times buy/rent calculator favored buying for values much higher than 110, more like 120 to 170.
From the safe withdrawal perspective, I would think that for a withdrawal rate R, the test to buy a house would be
((house purchase cost)*R/12+(monthly costs)) < rent
So a rent of $600 (max for your case of two people), for a house that would add $100 of additional monthly expenses for ownership (e.g., taxes, maintenance), translates into a house price of <$200K for R=0.03 and <$150K for R=0.04. 200K/600=333, and 150K/600=250.
How did you get the number 110?
Here, you use the guideline that a house should cost less than 110 monthly rents, referring to "the NAV formula." The NY times buy/rent calculator favored buying for values much higher than 110, more like 120 to 170.
From the safe withdrawal perspective, I would think that for a withdrawal rate R, the test to buy a house would be
((house purchase cost)*R/12+(monthly costs)) < rent
So a rent of $600 (max for your case of two people), for a house that would add $100 of additional monthly expenses for ownership (e.g., taxes, maintenance), translates into a house price of <$200K for R=0.03 and <$150K for R=0.04. 200K/600=333, and 150K/600=250.
How did you get the number 110?
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I would take the money. I see the question as more, how much would you pay to be done with housing worries for life (one more major life expense crossed off, which is very tempting). This is similar, in my view, to a 3% SWR; it has the same purpose, the only question is, which will prove more secure in the long run.
The trouble with lifetime secure housing is that it is not for sale; you can rent from a landlord, or you can rent directly from your local tax assessors at a reduced rate. Maybe with an HOA/condo/coop board middleman thrown into the mix. And not all states will protect $300,000 in equity from other creditors, making lifetime secure housing even more of a phantom.
The trouble with lifetime secure housing is that it is not for sale; you can rent from a landlord, or you can rent directly from your local tax assessors at a reduced rate. Maybe with an HOA/condo/coop board middleman thrown into the mix. And not all states will protect $300,000 in equity from other creditors, making lifetime secure housing even more of a phantom.
Take the money.
Nothing is forever. Unmentioned in all the preceding comments is what happens if the neighborhood, sudivision, parcel etc. goes to hell. Cheap homes can be had for less than $100K in Sacramento by the dozens. And your neighbors won't be ERE, they'll be your worst nightmare with loud music at 1am, cars on blocks, questionable "market" activity, possible gunfire. OR, maybe Sac just gets a Katrina-like event and its crappy levees fail to hold. Your forever home is now under 10 feet of water and the mold cannot wait to start growing. Freedom is having assets that are liquid, but that's not what I'm talkin' about.
Nothing is forever. Unmentioned in all the preceding comments is what happens if the neighborhood, sudivision, parcel etc. goes to hell. Cheap homes can be had for less than $100K in Sacramento by the dozens. And your neighbors won't be ERE, they'll be your worst nightmare with loud music at 1am, cars on blocks, questionable "market" activity, possible gunfire. OR, maybe Sac just gets a Katrina-like event and its crappy levees fail to hold. Your forever home is now under 10 feet of water and the mold cannot wait to start growing. Freedom is having assets that are liquid, but that's not what I'm talkin' about.
@Maus is right; I came close to buying a place until I discovered the half-way house next door. Evenings in the neighborhood could be quite special. But, neighborhoods go up as well as down; I lived in Hell's Kitchen (Clinton) in the bad old days where you knew it was Sunday morning because the sidewalks were extra-crunchy with the discarded crack vials from Saturday night. Now it's a hot (excuse the pun) neighborhood with prices to match. Just another instance of risk/lack of security in everything.
One other point though, maybe it's just me but I don't know any homeowners who don't wish (sometimes secretly) to chuck it, even custom built dream houses. Maybe a part of it is the financial burden, but I suspect a good portion is Thoreau's observation that they don't have the house, the house has them.
One other point though, maybe it's just me but I don't know any homeowners who don't wish (sometimes secretly) to chuck it, even custom built dream houses. Maybe a part of it is the financial burden, but I suspect a good portion is Thoreau's observation that they don't have the house, the house has them.
Yes, take the money.
Our paid off home (since 1998) is in an older neighborhood that is starting to experience some "problems". Houses are down in value 50% from their highs and people are forced to rent homes they can't sell to well, people who won't take care of the property like they should i.e. (not mowing the lawns soon enough, etc.). Everyone is stuck. Is it bad now? No, but what if it doesn't get better? Cash is king.
djc
Our paid off home (since 1998) is in an older neighborhood that is starting to experience some "problems". Houses are down in value 50% from their highs and people are forced to rent homes they can't sell to well, people who won't take care of the property like they should i.e. (not mowing the lawns soon enough, etc.). Everyone is stuck. Is it bad now? No, but what if it doesn't get better? Cash is king.
djc
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@jacob - So the ratio is 12/(R+X), where R is the safe withdrawal rate and X is the ratio of annual taxes and maintenance to house cost.
If you can get X down by living in a place with a homestead exemption and by frugal maintenance, say $1500/year, then with R of 3%, for two people, $100K*(0.03+0.015)/12/2 = $187.50/person/month.
Seems very sensitive to X, and you have a good deal of control over X.
If you can get X down by living in a place with a homestead exemption and by frugal maintenance, say $1500/year, then with R of 3%, for two people, $100K*(0.03+0.015)/12/2 = $187.50/person/month.
Seems very sensitive to X, and you have a good deal of control over X.
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