Bitcoin crashing!
Down 25% on the week.
Explanation? Well I already gave one, a month ago. Basically the rise was "wall street" money collecting a war chest of BTC. The crash is them selling the BTC to profit on futures (CBOE contract finalized today), thus book a double profit.
bryan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:22 pm
Jan 17/18 futures settlement dates approaching. These will be volatile times as folks try to maximize profits from futures. Gemini (CBOE futures) may have opportunity to either buy BTC for cheap or sell BTC for a premium.
bryan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:56 pm
The volatility will be in that witching period, but maybe also folks preparing to trade during the witching period? I have USD on gemini, but may transfer in more BTC as well.
The CBOE settlement rate is set by this auction:
https://gemini.com/auction-data/?filter ... uctionData As you can see, $6.7M is much more than yesterday's $101k and about double the volume from previous highest volume day. I'm too lazy to copy/paste that into a spreadsheet to make a graph to show this day being so far to the top right.. Not so much witching period (just the 24 hours leading up) for gemini given its format, let's see if we see a witching period for CME, or a crash redux.
Was I right or wrong? Who knows. This could all be a coincidence or only a minor factor. There are some quite happy futures traders right now, though!
I didn't get to test my gemini theory for posting a buy AND sell limit order in the same auction
However, I did pretty easily time the market and had a limit buy order get chewed up. Just need to figure if I want to realize the profit immediately, hold or buy other cryptos with it, or use it for the gemini experiment next month.
I'm feeling a little better about Bitcoin prices than I was a month+ ago. The volatility/volume/attention of the last two months was a bit much and I think things will calm down in the next few months.