Fingeek's Journal

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fingeek
Posts: 249
Joined: Wed May 24, 2017 8:16 am
Location: Wales

Fingeek's Journal

Post by fingeek »

Hello from south west UK! Thought I'd put some notes down, in the unlikely event that it helps someone else. I'd welcome critique or thoughts! If there are any questions, then do ask away. :-)

---

I'm an IT Systems Engineer.

I've been aiming towards self-sufficiency/FI for a couple of years. In the last year I've come across the ERE book and forum - A nice addition, confirmation, adjustment and extension to the "internal principles" I've been developing over the years. I have a wife and no kids (at the moment).

I'm a classic INTJ and therefore my analytical bias has helped direct me towards spreadsheet/budget perfection - I'm sure other INTJ types will chuckle in agreement :).

---

History to date:

Year end / Age / SWR / Comments
2005: 21 - ∞% SWR - Career start. No personal debt, but a student loan of ~£16k (at sub-inflation rate).
2007: 23 - ?% SWR - Bought my first house. 15% cash deposit, none of this "shared equity" ponzi business.
2008: 24 - 100% SWR - Moved to a large company, with accelerated income. The thinking was in terms of '12 months of expenses in emergency fund' i.e. Current Ratio=1. INTJ mindset kicked in and I rapidly got to 12 months of expenses.
2012: 28 - 100% SWR - Since buying the first house, I was fortunate to have been on the end of multiple decreases in mortgage interest - I was on a BoE (Bank Of England) base tracker rate, and it ultimately hit the mortgage floor of around 1.5%. A real shame as, I was looking forward to seeing the banks pay me interest. I overpaid the mortgage surplus over the years, and I ultimately then decided to never overpay the mortgage again - Wasted opportunity cost.
2013: 29 - 120% SWR - Moved to a larger house (boo)[1]. Kept old house (yay). Paid off my student loan[2]. Living expenses remain broadly similar to that of studentdom (yay).
2014: 30 - 49% SWR - Started thinking in terms of 'rental properties until retirement'.
2015: 31 - 18% SWR - Read Rich Dad Poor Dad, switched gears. Sold the one rental property, and bought two higher yielding rental properties.
2016: 32 - 14% SWR - Read ERE in Nov, installed jet engine. 6 months away from hitting 12%; Initial goal as meets P2P lending (11-13%) and specialist rental property income (11-15%).
2017 Q1: 33 - 11% SWR - Hit the initial goal of 11% SWR (50% actively managed direct property portfolio, 50% passive FTSE/similar).
2017 June: 33 - 9.8% SWR - Single figures!
2017 Dec: 34 - 8.4% SWR


[1] With the move in 2013, we decided to stretch the mortgage to 90% LTV with the thought of buying a crappy house below value, thus pulling the LTV rapidly to the 60-70% LTV level.

[2] Back in 2013, perversely I paid off my student loan. In the UK when I was a student, the student loan was pegged at less than inflation. Paying money into a student loan was dead money, when you could put it into a savings account (at the time) for a higher return. This was back when you could get a 5% interest rate if you locked your capital in for a couple of years.

We wanted to purchase our next home, but the mortgage company wouldn't lend the amount they originally said they would. It got to the underwriter stage, they called me and said "we can offer you ${70% of what you asked for}, is that OK?"... Of course it wasn't, as we had minimal buffer cash at the time (couldn't and didn't want to spend it). The perverse part was that paying off the remaining £10k on my student loan meant I could borrow the extra £50k I needed. It was a pretty bad deal, and I was definitely smelling badness, but it all fit correctly in my mental model - Leverage to scale, then decompress later. It's paid off thus far, and we're at a 60% LTV on paper.
Last edited by fingeek on Fri Aug 06, 2021 6:09 am, edited 4 times in total.

fingeek
Posts: 249
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Location: Wales

Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by fingeek »

At this point, here is where I am:

Monthly Job Income: £4,200
Other Income (expected): £1,513
Fixed/"Mandatory" expenses: £1,369
Surplus after expenses: £4,344
Optional expenses: £514
Surplus after everything: £3,830 -> Which goes straight into investments at this point.

Savings Rate compared to job income: 91%
Current net worth (accessible assets, not including home): £167,468

To cover "fixed expenses":
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 9.8%
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £243,377
Years of savings to 4% SWR: 5.4 (Oct 2022) - Seems to be fluctuating by 6-12 months at the moment, due to some sporadic blobs of income.

To cover "fixed + optional expenses":
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 13.0%
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £377,846
Years of savings to 4% SWR: 8.3 (Sep 2025)

---

My current focus is (1) designing the system to provide monthly income, and testing it. For the last 6 months, "the system" has provided 70% monthly income, and myself and DW pay in 15% (£210) each to cover the expenses. By Jan 2018, we should be able to test 100% of "the system" providing for monthly expenses.

My current challenge is (1) being patient while accumulating and investing more capital, and (2) figuring out at what SWR rate I'm going to leave work. I know I won't be waiting for 4% SWR that's for sure, as I have plans to do something else after work (Just not quite sure what that is), and I'm confident we can find the odd part-time/temp job to bridge the gap for monthly expenses as necessary.

wolf
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Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by wolf »

fingeek wrote:
Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:52 am
Savings Rate compared to job income: 91%
Wow! Pretty high. Don't you ever want to spend more? It is impressive. Would you say that is because of your high income or your frugal lifestyle?

fingeek
Posts: 249
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Location: Wales

Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by fingeek »

Thanks and thanks for the reply! To be honest, very occasionally I have crazy thoughts about spunking some cash on stuff... But then 5 mins later I see how pointless it all really is, and I'd rather use it to get out of the systemic loop earlier! In the last two years, we made an expensive purchase on a bed (I spend 8hrs/day - 1/3rd of life, and it has a 10yr guarantee - So I justified it as a cheap cost per-day), and one expensive holiday. Aside from that, I haven't really had any urges to spend more.

The reason the SR is 91%, is that we' already have investment income to contribute towards monthly expenses. I projected into the future, and I considered the things that would stop me from pulling the FIRE trigger - One of these things was having runtime/confidence that investments could support living.

Frugality-wise. Mortgage is £707pm / 44%. Household bills are £294pm / 8%. Food is £180pm / 11%. Other £426pm / 27%
I think we would mentally struggle to downsize, but aside from that I would say we're somewhat frugal. That other 27% is for the two of us, stuff like petrol, phone cost, socialising etc (All optional).

Income-wise. I suffer from imposter syndrome, so I'm happy only to disclose behind my username facade. It does make me feel guilty, though make hay while the sun shines I guess!

wolf
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Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by wolf »

fingeek wrote:
Thu Jun 22, 2017 2:32 pm
Thanks and thanks for the reply! To be honest, very occasionally I have crazy thoughts about spunking some cash on stuff... But then 5 mins later I see how pointless it all really is, and I'd rather use it to get out of the systemic loop earlier!
Right. I think the same. Getting out of the loop earlier. It justifies my high SR as well. But what I think currently is: What comes after the systematic loop? What comes after the treadmil? Will I be happier or more ...? I don't want to have wrong expectations abour FIRE.
Have you thought about it already? It would be interesting to hear other opinions.
Thank you for your openess.

fingeek
Posts: 249
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Location: Wales

Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by fingeek »

Yes I know exactly what you mean... I know we're at a similar stage, and I guess probably many people go through these thoughts at this time. I took two weeks off a year or so ago to not relax but to do something completely different. I really enjoyed it, and that's made me realise that I can (will) find joy in doing a number of different things... Hopefully :D

fingeek
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Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by fingeek »

This month marks 10 months since we started testing the resilience of our system and income streams. It continues to prove it's ability to handle 70% of our monthly expenses, and DW and I pay in the remaining 15% each. P2P investments are close to generating enough to cover the other 30%, but I'm not confident of it's long-term resilience so I'm still in asset accumulation mode for now.

We're still on track for:
By August 2017: System capable of covering 100% of basic living costs (no "optional" stuff like netflix and the occasional meal out/socialising)
By Jan 2018: System capable of covering 100% of living costs (including the optional stuff).

So we now start to look at re-assessing and mitigating for our assumptions:
* Safe to live on the current income long-term - Considering it's a mix of high-yielding P2P investments, high-yielding property and more traditional investments, this isn't a robust assumption long-term. We're running at 9.9% SWR, so the plan is to over-shoot the asset accumulation so that surplus income can be re-invested into the more traditional 3-4% SWR investments - A waterfall effect if you will.
* Expenses increase - I'm not concerned about this, as we're pretty tight on outgoings.
* Mortgage IR increase - This will definitely happen, given that we're on a tracker rate mortgage. I started considering stress testing at 6%, but then I realised that at that point it would make sense to just pay off the mortgage from investment capital instead... So that's the mitigation plan.

In August 2018, we'll hit 7% SWR rate, at which point I plan to leave work to "do something else". Current thoughts are either starting my own tech business, or move into IT contracting (if I can find part-time/flexible working contracting). DW also has some small business plans, so that will be interesting. The other alternative is staying in current job until 2022, which I don't like to entertain.

What are people's experiences with leaving work before hitting 4% SWR? Good/bad idea?

wolf
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Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by wolf »

Interesting news. I am very curious what you will do in the next year and what you experience.
Testing the resilience of one own's system is a good idea.
Is 7% a goal of you. Or why do you want to change something exactly at 7% WR. If you like your job, why change something?

fingeek
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Location: Wales

Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by fingeek »

After doing the calculations and forecasts etc, it happened to be that the 7% WR was about where I could comfortably decide to quit work, take a few months off, and think about what I want to do next in career/life. By ~Jan we'll have had a full year of 70% non-wage income covering our base outgoings so that helps with confidence levels.

Basically, I asked myself the question - "What do I need to do to be capable and confident of leaving work in August 2018?". And of course that's invest, build income streams and reduce expenses. But it was also about trial-running the system to build confidence too.
If you like your job, why change something?
Ha ha, well I don't too much like my job at this point. There's nothing wrong with it per-se, but I've stagnated (and perhaps outgrown the position?) and I think I'd like to give a go at trying my own business or similar. The ironic thing is that, I think the fact that ER is a possibility is now making me unhappy at work - If it wasn't possibly an option, I would probably have never got into this position. It's almost like my body is gearing up to give me the push I need to leave work!

Are you finding similar thoughts too, or happy working?
Last edited by fingeek on Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

wolf
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Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by wolf »

fingeek wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2017 10:53 am
But it was also about trial-running the system to build confidence too.
...
Are you finding similar thoughts too, or happy working?
A trial-run makes sense, because I guess you also haven't experienced a longer time without regular work? Beside that I could imagine a life without a structured working life is challenging, regarding boredom, missing social connections, purpose. Do you also want to find out more about that? Or do you think you can handle those aspects quite well? For myself, I am gonna stay three weeks home during my vacation. This is really something untypical for me, because I am used to travel. A trial-run sounds good. As I said before, I think you will make good experiences and if you share them others can also learn from you. Maybe this forum is also a good place to view of ideas from different perspectives.

Well, similar thoughts, although I am quite happy with my work and therefore don't think about quitting before FI. There has to be something really disappointing, but right now I gotta say I like to work. It is also because it gives me some kind of structure, purpose and community. When I'll reach FI I think I'll try part-time work first, or I'll do a sabbatical with unpaid leave but still under contract. Anyway, I don't want to think about the future too much. I am trying to live my life more in the present, because if I am happy now with my (working) life, I have good chances to be happy in the future.

Keep on writing your journal. I am following it with high interest.

fingeek
Posts: 249
Joined: Wed May 24, 2017 8:16 am
Location: Wales

Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by fingeek »

Wow, it's been a bit too long since my last update! Not a huge amount has changed in terms of income and expenditure, though the NW is steadily increasing. Here are the updated figures:

Savings Rate compared to job income: 91% (June: 91%)
Current net worth (accessible assets, not including home): £203,737 (June: £167,468)

To cover "fixed expenses":
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 8.4% (June: 9.8%)
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £222,373 (June: £243,377)
Years of savings to 4% SWR: 4.9yr/Sept 2022) (June: 5.4yr/Oct 2022)

To cover "fixed + optional expenses":
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 9.7% (June: 13.0%)
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £291,747 (June: £377,846)
Years of savings to 4% SWR: 6.4yr/Mar 2024 (June: 8.3yr/Sep 2025)

---

The original targets were:
By August 2017: System capable of covering 100% of basic living costs (no "optional" stuff like netflix and the occasional meal out/socialising)
By Jan 2018: System capable of covering 100% of living costs (including the optional stuff).

We hit target #1 a bit late, this month (November), due to a holiday, a strategic long-term investment, and increased mortgage.
Target #2 has also moved back to June 2018 for the same reason.

But the good news in all that, is that we've finally hit our initial target (100% of basic living costs covered by investments). Scary thoughts ensue...

wolf
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Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by wolf »

Your NW has made a big jump from June to November. You were able to save about 6k monthly, if I have calculated that correctly. A SR of 91% is very, very high. I haven't seen such a high SR so far. Is that a 12-month-average or was this in November? Either way, that is great! The higher the SR the faster you will achieve your targets, as you have hit your initial target.
Do you think in terms of FI and FF? Do you plan to increase your expenses in RE, e.g. because you want to travel more, ...

fingeek
Posts: 249
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Location: Wales

Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by fingeek »

Thanks! I'm not sure if you recall, but about a year ago I shifted much of my investment so it started to pay for most of the basic expenses. This is why almost all of my work-salary is now available for investment.

6k monthly sounds about right - Approx £3750 per month from salary, and an additional windfall in shares, averaging to 6k. I am definitely very fortunate to be in the position I am, and a big part of me is at odds with myself ("Why would you want to give that up?" etc.). But ultimately, I've realised that a job, and even more so the salary really is golden handcuffs - And I value my personal freedom far more.

FI/FF - Yes! I have assigned the following meanings for us personally:
FS (Financial Security) - Cover our basic expenses: Mortgage, taxes, basic food etc. We could live basically, just not socialise, travel etc. etc. It's a low target to hit, but for me it helped free my mind up ("I can quit if I really wanted to/needed to/got really annoyed").
FI (Financial Independence) - FS + Adding in optional luxuries that we use right now - Netflix, going out for meals and a small bit of socialising.
FF (Financial Freedom) - I did originally have this in my tracker. I decided to take it out because I couldn't imagine wanting to "go on holiday 4x a year" or any other luxuries like that.

Slowly, I'm realising that I want to build my own business of some sort - And so does my wife. In addition, it feels like I don't have enough time any more for work, because I need to spend more time on my other investments and property. It's quite funny that it seems to have gone full-circle, but at least the emerging "work" is all on my own terms. In a weird way, I think that's what "RE" is starting to become for me!

wolf
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Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by wolf »

fingeek wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2017 10:53 am
Basically, I asked myself the question - "What do I need to do to be capable and confident of leaving work in August 2018?". And of course that's invest, build income streams and reduce expenses. But it was also about trial-running the system to build confidence too.
How about your confident to leave work in August 2018? Did you make some progress on trial-running your system?
For myself, I would be confident, if my passive income streams guarantee to fully budget my expenses with a margin-of-safety. Also I have made already a list about possible risks. I am used to it, because of work. Also I am risk-averse. A trial-run would make sense, IMO, in order to be sure, that there is a sustainable system in place. On top of that, if you build your own business with another income stream, you would be very well diversified.

fingeek
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Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by fingeek »

Review of 2017:

2017 Q1: 33 - 11% WR - Hit the initial goal of 11% SWR (50% actively managed direct property portfolio, 50% passive FTSE/similar).
2017 June: 33 - 9.8% WR - Single figures!
2017 Dec: 34 - 8.0% WR (vs projected: 8.4% WR)

"By August 2017: System capable of covering 100% of basic living costs (no "optional" stuff like netflix and the occasional meal out/socialising)"
-> Success.

"By Jan 2018: System capable of covering 100% of living costs (including the optional stuff)."
-> Part success. It's going to take a few more years to truly hit a 4% WR. Until then, we would rely on higher yielding investments, such as direct property. The current reality is that the system "could" support the optional work, but I have preferred keeping the investment income in the investment accounts.

I'm happy that I hit (slightly surpassed) my projected WR level. We had a few luxuries throughout the year, which could have reduced the current WR, but considering the plan was for 2017 to be the last year prior to ER, we opted to take the luxuries.

2017 always was a trial year - We slowed down on property purchase/renovations, so we could test the resilience of the current portfolio before deciding next steps. This is proving mostly successful, so the next logical step is to review and address any risks in the system.

---

Plan for 2018:

Overall, this year is about "getting the house in order", and addressing any risks in the current system. I've also decided to firm up my goals somewhat (They are SMART goals, the below is a summarised version).

1. Fix/simplify asset allocation, and reduce costs. My current investment portfolio has fees higher than they need to be, and they are eating into my returns - I'm finally realising that even 0.5% is a significant cost, when the expected return is only 4% (7%-3% inflation).

2. Review the current investment platforms, to ensure I'm optimising for fees. HL is 0.45%, Vanguard is 0.15% - That 0.3% reduction would compound well over 40+yrs.

3. Purchase at least two more property investments this year.

4. Reduce P2P investment (I don't believe it to be sustainable long term - Initially, I was using it as a holding period/better return, then move into investment ISA/property).

5. Max out my wife and my ISAs for the year.

6. Literally getting the house in order: Replace bathroom, redecorate, etc. while the surplus cash is there, and to avoid needing to do it in the next 10yrs.

7. Ask for a sabbatical before pulling the trigger. It may be that in July, I will ask for a sabbatical (and if no, just leave). This would help protect risk, if my calculations are bad, if expenses increase, or if I realise I miss work (or the money!)

8. Quit work in August (????)

fingeek
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Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by fingeek »

Update for January:

Savings Rate compared to job income: 91% (Nov: 91%)
Current net worth (accessible assets, not including home): £258,520 (June: £203,737) [1]

To cover "fixed expenses":
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 6.6% (Nov: 8.4%)
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £168,244 (Nov: £222,373)
Years of savings to 4% SWR: 3.7yr/Oct 2021) (Nov: 4.9yr/Sept 2022)

To cover "fixed + optional expenses":
Current Withdrawal Rate requirement: 8.5% (Nov: 9.7%)
NW deficit to 4% SWR: £288,244 (Nov: £291,747)
Years of savings to 4% SWR: 6.3yr/Mar 2024 (Nov: 6.4yr/Mar 2024)

---

[1] I wasn't including my pension fund in my net worth when calculating my SWR, which I have now included, and has of course dropped my SWR a bit more than it would have otherwise. I left the pension out, thinking that I wouldn't be able to draw down from it. Now, I realise I need to split retirement up into phases: (1) Post-work age, where I drawdown from my ISA/investments, and (2) Retirement age, where I drawdown from my pension.

Building this ISA-vs-pension spreadsheet has been interesting, and has indicated that I can't pay into my pension if I want to retire early (Even if the pension would give an instant 40% increase due to tax rebates :-().

---

As I think I previously noticed, I plunged into unhappiness since hitting my FU money level. My whole purpose vanished as my goals were satisfied - I no longer need/needed to work for money, for survival, and the urge to push to the next career level disappeared. I've 'cruised' in work for around 2yrs at this point, and brain rot and mild depression has kicked in. But, these things are your body's way of telling you something. I feel like I'm finally waking up and pulling myself out of the cloud. In the last few months, I've become quite motivated and interested in daytrading, reading, property, and even building software again!

fingeek
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Location: Wales

Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by fingeek »

wolf wrote:
Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:19 am
fingeek wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2017 10:53 am
Basically, I asked myself the question - "What do I need to do to be capable and confident of leaving work in August 2018?". And of course that's invest, build income streams and reduce expenses. But it was also about trial-running the system to build confidence too.
How about your confident to leave work in August 2018? Did you make some progress on trial-running your system?
For myself, I would be confident, if my passive income streams guarantee to fully budget my expenses with a margin-of-safety. Also I have made already a list about possible risks. I am used to it, because of work. Also I am risk-averse. A trial-run would make sense, IMO, in order to be sure, that there is a sustainable system in place. On top of that, if you build your own business with another income stream, you would be very well diversified.
Sorry for the late reply, it's been too busy in the last 6 weeks to give a good reply. Hopefully I've answered most of your question in my year review. I still have yet to test full budget + margin-of-safety at this point, so I will focus on this in 2018 now. This is mainly because of:
1. We didn't want to give up on our current optional expenses this year => Trial this for a few months prior to FIREing!
2. I had not redirected ISA+P2P investment income to cater for expenses yet, as I preferred to keep building capital => Start taking income for a few months prior to FIREing.
3. Not confident of the long-term resilience of P2P income (I currently expect 11% income in this portion) => Reduce capital in P2P, and redirect to ISA/property.
4. Reviewing the forecast and long-term assumptions with regards to my property investments => This seems to be fairly accurate over the last two years, which is good news.

At this point, I am definitely suffering from One More Year syndrome too - I will write more on that later.

JollyScot
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Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by JollyScot »

I see you are building up a UK property stash. Did you run the sums on the tax rules once the interest deduction changes all come through in 2020.

I was looking into using the property I bought and switching over to 4-6 rentals instead, but with the changes in how they allow for the interest I found it just wasn't as worth while unless you started with everything being in a LTD company.

WIth the stamp duty changes it seemed like something where if you didn't go with a company structure initially you would end up with a larger bill farther down the line to change.

I did consider that hopefully the UK would come round and not charge their tax on gross income rather than net, but that doesn't seem to be on the current todo list.

fingeek
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Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by fingeek »

Thanks for the reply! Yes I have considered/calculated it. Back in 2007, I had a single let but it's net yield/ROCE was pretty poor, around 5%. At the time, I could get better return on deposit so I sold up. Current, I have a few higher yielding properties (HMOs) and I'm currently embarking on a small-scale pub conversion, likely to have around 10 rooms. Higher yielding properties, in addition to creating value by refurbish/converting should counteract the main govt changes. Any future purchases will be within a LTD (though there's nothing to say govt won't pull the same trick on company wrappers!).

Wrt stamp duty specifically, if the property is commercial or part-commercial, then it attracts commercial rates - and sub-£150k is 0%. My preference therefore, is to buy commercial or part commercial, due to stamp duty and a few other benefits.

There are a few ways to move property into a ltd (some of them even legit, ha ha!), some of them allow you to negate or defer stamp duty and capital gains. Happy to answer specifics in PM if that helps!

JollyScot
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Re: Fingeek's Journal

Post by JollyScot »

Ah commercial properties, yeah I looked at a couple of shops at one point but decided against them. Maybe I should have but I don't have any regrets so probably fine.

The one I have now was initially bought for me to live in and then plans changed so I only looked at the property path then. The numbers can make a lot of sense still, for me it was a case of go big or not bother. The rules changes seem to be loooking to hammer the ones with 1-2 places.

I think a lot of people see UK property as over priced, and relative to some countries they might be. That said a lot of places have some very good places for sale. Large parts of Scotland are still 15% down in real terms relative to 2008 peak. I suspect Wales may be similar, everyone views London as whats going on here.

Seems you have a good spread of property types though, good job.

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