Lemur Journal!

Where are you and where are you going?
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Lemur
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Re: Lemur Journal!

Post by Lemur »

- Harvested another pumpkin. I have another basketball sized pumpkin growing too. This is is still from my one pumpkin plant.
- Finally have cucumbers coming in. Zucchini is still lagging.
- I'm finding some good success putting dead grass around my vegetable plants. I figure that overtime the dead grass will break down into nitrogen. I'm beginning to be more proactive then reactive in the garden.
- I love Wednesdays. I have no meeting scheduled today :)
- Breakfast was 3 eggs + zucchini salt+pepper. Such a simple tasty and cheap meal. Did not know zucchini goes so well with eggs.
- I'm down 10 lbs total since dieting changes. 1 pound away from being in a 'normal' BMI :D .
- Tech stocks had a recent pull-back. Coupled with all my vertical call spreads. I'm down a bit on my portfolio. Hopefully things will recover.

With doing these vertical call spreads; a realization: it is okay to be wrong here and there. If I do spreads on stocks I believe will go up in 10+ years, then by definition, I should end up winning more often than I'm losing. A trading is more often than not just about being successful (win-rate) more often than losers. That brings a stoic comfort. The options thread I created in the money questions section has been useful to read over and keep for the backlog. Sometimes users posts make more sense when one has experience the phenomenons that are being discussed.

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Lemur
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Re: Lemur Journal!

Post by Lemur »

Closed out PEP vertical call spread at a profit. Opened up a new short but unable to purchase the long call due to trading restrictions. Should be able to once recent funds settle.

I learned recently that SPY has listing requirements that include companies must be profitable in the most recent 4 quarters. I'm wondering when the de-listing occurs because I have to imagine a lot of companies are going to fall off and get replaced in the index due to COVID.

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Lemur
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Re: Lemur Journal!

Post by Lemur »

Lingering thoughts about this thread created a few months ago about my worry for getting promoted:
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=11430

I'll find out end of August if raise / bonus / promotion comes to fruition. My performance ratings are looking really good and only one glaring mistake was found from a business proposal I worked on earlier (that did not go well...) which might be over-looked as a noob mistake anyway.

Lately I've had a few realizations that are going to help me a lot. I had to really dig into what was making me afraid / put-off by the idea of getting promoted. Part of it is the added responsibilities and stress that comes with it, but like I learned in that thread, perhaps being in a leadership position would allow me to be the change I want to see. #2 it is very possible as a very detailed-oriented, introverted, mostly - anxious/avoidant personality type I am just afraid of criticisms. Historically, I don't take criticisms very well. I always say I will but then real-life happens and I get a 'F*** that guy' mindset....in my head at least.

Martial Arts has motivated me lately; just watching it religiously. Guys/Gals who get punched in the face take that negative feedback and make adjustments. Same with BJJ and many other sports. I weirdly started looking at my career as a 'SPORT' ...a game. Where you can score goals but sometimes you accidentally might throw an interception to the opposing team - to some fault of your own but sometimes just plain bad luck.

The point is, whether feedback is subjective or not, is valid. It shouldn't be taken as a personal attack but rather maybe one just isn't a good fit for a certain task / project / organization / what have you. Sometimes managers are not bad, for instance, they might have just been put in the wrong role to begin with (for instance a democratic leader but in a position where a more authoritarian leader would have been useful). It should be objectively seen that way - and then one makes adjustments. Easier said then done? Another realization - empathy, the one giving the feedback isn't having an easy time either. It could be that giving feedback is just as hard, if not harder, then taking it.

All I know is that today when I addressed, very maturely about what happened with this business proposal earlier about the negative feedback received - I felt so relived. Not only did i make it easier for myself and learn what adjustments I need to make (being more candid about timelines), the manager giving the feedback credited me for 'adaptability' for this handling. Sometimes a negative can be turned into a positive - if one allows there mind to do that.

Besides all that...trying to resist the current system I am in (trying not to get promoted) while at the same time putting out quality work and getting higher reviews...and some kind of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance trap that causes a lot of distress. Considering web of goals ...I should choose a mindset that better aligns. Play the sport.

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Lemur
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Re: Lemur Journal!

Post by Lemur »

Useful Tool

https://www.niddk.nih.gov/bwp

I entered my information and as long as I eat under 2,229 calories a day until Dec 31, I’ll hit my 162 lb weight goal. Very achievable as I have eaten 1700 calories daily for about 22 days straight now.

I also have a good margin of error should I miscount calories on any given day (~529 CAL).

Almost too easy...

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Lemur
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Re: Lemur Journal!

Post by Lemur »

Closed out a WMT vertical spread and got a good profit :). Used the profits to start buying INTEL stocks. INTC is not the 'hot' stock on the market but it is very reasonably priced IMO. 9 PE ratio for a stock with a 30% ROE and growing revenue & earnings? Don''t see that much these days.

Opened up another vertical spread on WMT one but this time the DTE (date till expiration) is out until December. I want to be a bit less active on opening/closing spreads as it is time consuming. Usually I know its time to take action when I get a email notification that my long call was executed (because I set the sell to close ahead of time), and then when that happens I log in and close out the short.

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Lemur
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Re: Lemur Journal!

Post by Lemur »

Vote.org

That was easy.

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unemployable
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Post by unemployable »

I like INTC here but value hasn't really been working in this environment. Make no mistake, I would love it if it did.

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Lemur
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Re: Lemur Journal!

Post by Lemur »

@Unemployable

True but perhaps in the long-run, earnings always follow stock performance? Regardless, hard to ignore the financials INTEL is showing me and in a portfolio of 10 stocks where 9 are already aimed at growth, I like to have a value play. I'm hoping WFC bounces back up soon because I want to clear out that stock in my portfolio and split between Apple & Intel.

Today's morning scale was nice. I weighed 182.4 and it was the first day in a while I'm in the 'Normal' weight category for BMI (24.7). Very nice. The blue line is my weight every morning. Red line is a linear trend to meeting 180lb target by September 12.

Image

At the moment my target ends at 180. Once met, I will be updating the parameters on the graph to get to 162lbs.

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Re: Lemur Journal!

Post by jacob »

Lemur wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:39 am
True but perhaps in the long-run, earnings always follow stock performance?
One should hope it was the other way around! In modern day reality it seems more like value investor dogma similar to the "stocks always go up in the long run"-dogma of the buy&hold crowd. There are no laws of physics saying either have to hold.

There's this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2% ... _Data).png ... but note how this correlation is hacked into different eras. If it wasn't color coded, the correlations would appear less strong. Also, we're currently outside/at the edge of the historic dataset suggesting that it might not be stationary.

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Lemur
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Re: Lemur Journal!

Post by Lemur »

I basically copy this for my abdominal workout. I can’t get through half the exercises lol so it gives me a reason to push: https://youtu.be/DHD1-2P94DI

@Jacob

Interesting. I’ll need to challenge based beliefs more often. ROE becomes very important then...because earnings are nothing for the investor if there isn’t dollars actually being returned to them.

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Lemur
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Re: Lemur Journal!

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- Dumped my Wells Fargo stock. Took a realized loss. Long-term economy is not looking good and doesn't help that WFC has congressional balance sheet restrictions. When money settles, looking to re-allocate to Intel.

- Closed out vertical spreads on SQ, DIS, AMD. Took small loss one each one. The post-covid growth spurt bull is over I think. So perhaps no more weekly 5% increases. I opened up another spread on AMD 82.50/92.50 but this time about 6 months out. I'm liking this longer expiration period...it means less activity for me but also if time decays as stock trades sideways, plenty of time for the short to lose value. Max risk is $395. No complaints here.

- I'm going to lose gains on PLUG due to covered calls opened a few months ago. Losing big gains there. Epiphany in my journal was a few weeks ago regarding that lol. When that money settles, going to buy back in selling puts.

Despite recent setbacks, still beating the S&P this year. More to come. I'll have a better picture Sept 1. when a lot of my expiration dates close out Aug 28.

Jason

Re: Lemur Journal!

Post by Jason »

Lemur wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:39 am
- Dumped my Wells Fargo stock. Took a realized loss. Long-term economy is not looking good and doesn't help that WFC has congressional balance sheet restrictions. When money settles, looking to re-allocate to Intel.
Makes me think of this guy.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business ... ells-fargo

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Lemur
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Post by Lemur »

@Jason

Yeah...lesson of 2020 for me is that diversity for the sake of diversity in stocks is a no go for me. When I switched to an active portfolio post covid market meltdown and dumped literally half my portfolio in to AMD, MSFT, and SQ, I more than made up for the loss. No regrets at all. I would've done even better if it weren't for the covered calls on PLUG and SQ I had. I'm still beating the market by a significant margin. Epiphany #2: Keep plowing the money into the stocks that are going up (I learned this one reading 'One up on Wall Street' by Peter Lynch'). There is some kind of fallacy where one is tempted to keep averaging down a bad stock...to try to recover from a bad choice....why does one keep trying to repair a car that is falling apart? Eat the ego (take the L), put the money on something that is growing and keep fine-tuning your lambo. The cool part about not being a professional fund manager is that I can do this instantly. And won't have to worry about losing my job either if I make a wrong choice.

I'm no investing specialist either. I just took a lesson I learned in 'The Warren Buffett Way' very seriously...basically a concentrated portfolio of 5-10 stocks with solid financials (and a ROE greater than 15% or so) should beat the market average.... Why? In a nutshell, market average is comprised of very good stocks (Apple) and very bad ones (Macy's). If one just has a portfolio of good stocks...I have to imagine they can beat the average unless the stocks they bought were too overvalued or something; which might be more of an art than a science these days.

Speaking of art vs science; its very quick and one shouldn't over-think too much with stock choice:

Science = Check income statement (revenue growth, earnings growth, over time), Check Balance Sheet (Current Ratio, Good Debt/Equity Ratio), and Check Cash Flow (Positive Cash Flow), ROE (Earnings need to actually return to shareholders, 15% > is a good metric).

Art = Stock has been trending up, Business Reasons for continued growth and outpace of competitors. Good Brand. Etc. Be weary of momentum (stocks that taking a beating usually continue to take a beating despite positive earnings / good "science"...I learned this in "more than you know finding financial wisdom in unconventional places." On the flip-side, some stocks will continue to trend up despite media attacks (Facebook?).

I dumped WFC due to my exit plan (I was closing in on 10% loss) and the stock was trading sideways for too long (not growing for me). I mentioned this exit strategy earlier in the Journal. In hindsight, I didn't do enough Art diligence in this case.

Someone else I've met put it more succinctly; if you're an early investor, you put all your money in an index with this expectation that you will slowly grow your portfolio over-time (may or may not be true as @Jacob alluded too); but, instead, you put all your money down on 2-3 stocks. One of those stocks 'moon's, and your portfolio changes significantly.

In terms of FIRE/ERE, a 10x annual expenses on one stock can be instantly life changing should it pop your way. Or, you know, you can wait 10+ years for it to naturally double at 7% a year (IF). If you made the wrong bet...well....the higher your savings rate, the more this does not matter. +1 for always having an exit plan. Exit plan also needs combination of Art / Science.

Jason

Re: Lemur Journal!

Post by Jason »

Peter Lynch - "The best stock to buy is often the one you already own." People forget that it might be the one that is actually going up i.e. let your winners win.

I was doing the dollar down thing on one holding and finally said, eff it and just sold it. I'm too embarrassed to say what it is. I couldn't wait anymore. There is a chance I made the wrong decision, but what a relief to be rid of it. If your baby was born with no legs, there's a good chance you might be a wasting your time waiting for it to learn to crawl despite the effort you both put in.

I made some fortunate picks, but I completely whiffed on two: SQ and TDOC. I did a false PYPL vs. SQ dichotomy and I just got lazy on the second. I did buy LVGO and am significantly up and because of their merger with TDOC I will end up with TDOC shares.

ertyu
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Re: Lemur Journal!

Post by ertyu »

BA has bottomed, folks

Jason called it

Jason

Re: Lemur Journal!

Post by Jason »

lol.

No, I'm still on-board BA. Call it delusions of grandeur, but I honestly feel I personally mushed that stock. My shares are like little trophies awarded for bringing unending misery into my company. It's hard to part with something like that.

I'll man up - SFIX. I didn't lose actual money like BA. Actually made a few hunnies. But I wasted better opportunities watching it go up and down. Sometimes you just get attached to the stupidest of shit.

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Lemur
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Post by Lemur »

The annual compensation is in. No raise. No promotion. But did get a $5k bonus. My expectations were met - was expecting just inflation increase given all the COVID economy challenges. So I’m very happy to be getting this considering perspective.

More Intel or Plug shares it is.

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Lemur
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Post by Lemur »

Just made a $400 profit on vertical spread I opened up on AMD about a week or so ago. Now that is how you do it ;) My long executed at 50% profit and then took the cash to close out short. Used cash to buy a call option on SQ that I have a short on (creating another vertical spread).

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Lemur
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Actually forgot what I planted here...its either a Watermelon or an Acorn Squash maybe? lol

Image

First time seeing Cucumbers :) I was getting no production this year except Pumpkins and the occasional tomato but now I'm getting a ton of these. Can't wait. Never seen so many bumble bees either. I spotted at least 6 or so just walking around the garden.

Image

Image

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Lemur
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1.) First pic I harvested. Definitely an acorn squash.
2.) Apple stock split did some funny things to my portfolio. Got 4x the shares but market price did not update correctly to reflect that so temporarily it ‘looks like’ I had a 400% gain. When I logged in this morning I thought ‘wth did one of my calls moon or something’ lol.

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