Overall a tough week at work but on the plus side, I'm not bored, I'm constantly in a state of mixed flow and anxiety...so my days are flying by fast. This reminded me of a really soothing quote I found from Academy of Ideas that has helped me get my mind back to a locus of control:
“One of the most important moments is when the client grasps that no one is coming. No one is coming to save me; no one is coming to make life right for me; no one is coming to solve my problems. If I don’t do something, nothing is going to get better. The dream of a rescuer who will deliver us may offer a kind of comfort, but it leaves us passive and powerless. We may feel if only I suffer long enough, if only I yearn desperately enough, somehow a miracle will happen, but this is the kind of self-deception one pays for with one’s life as it drains away into the abyss of un-redeemable possibilities and irretrievable days, months, decades.”
Nathaniel Branden, The Six Pillars of Self-Esteem
Copied from here.
https://academyofideas.com/2020/02/scho ... greatness/
Overall theme I have been trying to encompass in my daily life - growing, self-actualization, building confidence...this stuff sometimes comes with anxiety, not in spite of it. This stuff is not meant to completely defeat anxiety in a person. I have come to accept that this is part of the growing process itself so in a really powerful way....I have been learning to embrace these feelings instead of trying to bury them. The feelings of anxiety and anxiousness means that I am headed in the right direction towards whatever goal it is that I am trying to achieve. Some people, especially me in my past, used to let anxiety consume me but through education and re-framing I view it a bit differently now - anxiety instead makes you take action, think, and prepare. It is a positive trait... If you control its energy - great things can be had.
Lemur Journal!
Re: Lemur Journal!
Our client is considering approving us to work remotely until Corona-virus passes. I really hope so because our client is old-school no telework type. If our team could show productivity is not effected or even increases during this trial....that could go a long way towards some lasting changes.
Re: Lemur Journal!
Well Damn! My cash-covered puts might actually get exercised. KO and WFC both fell more then 10%. I anticipated that this could be a possibility. Great time to get in on these long-term.
I've had time to reflect since I lost a sudden $4k on call options before the virus outbreak. This was a time during crazy rallies and irrational exuberance when Virgin Galactic was doubling, every stock and their mom was rallying, TSLA was making people millionaires overnight...and then the epiphany hit me this morning. I lost because I got greedy when others got greedy.
Now while the WHO declares a pandemic and the stock market is tumbling and we just officially entered bear market, I considered buying puts again and then I stopped....what am I doing. This is what everyone else is doing. Let us listen to the words of wisdom: Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
I can't time the bottom, no one can. Even the Shiller ratio is still slightly high but it is starting to come down:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
But now may be a once in a decade opportunity to be a bit of a contrarian....I'm considering a radical shift in strategy:
[*] - Reduce my 401(k) contribution from 21% to 6%.
[*] - Use that difference to start loading up on the discounted blue-chips.
[*] - Use some of that cash to pick a few Jan 21 OTM call options.
My reasoning is simple - It is the time to be greedy. I can DCA my way into a few plays...MSFT, AAPL, KO, WFC, WMT, maybe even more GE.
MSFT is sitting on $11b in cash.
AAPL is sitting on $48b in cash.
Wells Fargo is under 8 PE Ratio....How many people were kicking themselves when they did not pick up bank stocks in 2008-2009?
COP could rebound once the oil price war is over.
DAL for obvious reasons - when the virus outbreak is over with by summer, expect a rebound though I'm concerned about liquidity issues so I think may hold off on this one.
I've had time to reflect since I lost a sudden $4k on call options before the virus outbreak. This was a time during crazy rallies and irrational exuberance when Virgin Galactic was doubling, every stock and their mom was rallying, TSLA was making people millionaires overnight...and then the epiphany hit me this morning. I lost because I got greedy when others got greedy.
Now while the WHO declares a pandemic and the stock market is tumbling and we just officially entered bear market, I considered buying puts again and then I stopped....what am I doing. This is what everyone else is doing. Let us listen to the words of wisdom: Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
I can't time the bottom, no one can. Even the Shiller ratio is still slightly high but it is starting to come down:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
But now may be a once in a decade opportunity to be a bit of a contrarian....I'm considering a radical shift in strategy:
[*] - Reduce my 401(k) contribution from 21% to 6%.
[*] - Use that difference to start loading up on the discounted blue-chips.
[*] - Use some of that cash to pick a few Jan 21 OTM call options.
My reasoning is simple - It is the time to be greedy. I can DCA my way into a few plays...MSFT, AAPL, KO, WFC, WMT, maybe even more GE.
MSFT is sitting on $11b in cash.
AAPL is sitting on $48b in cash.
Wells Fargo is under 8 PE Ratio....How many people were kicking themselves when they did not pick up bank stocks in 2008-2009?
COP could rebound once the oil price war is over.
DAL for obvious reasons - when the virus outbreak is over with by summer, expect a rebound though I'm concerned about liquidity issues so I think may hold off on this one.
Re: Lemur Journal!
I prefer to be neutral when others are greedy or fearful. 
Individuals can neutralize the emotional cycles of the group.
Individuals can neutralize the emotional cycles of the group.
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Hail_Diogenes
- Posts: 27
- Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:19 pm
Re: Lemur Journal!
Hey Lemur -Lemur wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:58 amOverall a tough week at work but on the plus side, I'm not bored, I'm constantly in a state of mixed flow and anxiety...so my days are flying by fast. This reminded me of a really soothing quote I found from Academy of Ideas that has helped me get my mind back to a locus of control:
“One of the most important moments is when the client grasps that no one is coming. No one is coming to save me; no one is coming to make life right for me; no one is coming to solve my problems. If I don’t do something, nothing is going to get better. The dream of a rescuer who will deliver us may offer a kind of comfort, but it leaves us passive and powerless. We may feel if only I suffer long enough, if only I yearn desperately enough, somehow a miracle will happen, but this is the kind of self-deception one pays for with one’s life as it drains away into the abyss of un-redeemable possibilities and irretrievable days, months, decades.”
Nathaniel Branden, The Six Pillars of Self-Esteem
Copied from here.
https://academyofideas.com/2020/02/scho ... greatness/
Overall theme I have been trying to encompass in my daily life - growing, self-actualization, building confidence...this stuff sometimes comes with anxiety, not in spite of it. This stuff is not meant to completely defeat anxiety in a person. I have come to accept that this is part of the growing process itself so in a really powerful way....I have been learning to embrace these feelings instead of trying to bury them. The feelings of anxiety and anxiousness means that I am headed in the right direction towards whatever goal it is that I am trying to achieve. Some people, especially me in my past, used to let anxiety consume me but through education and re-framing I view it a bit differently now - anxiety instead makes you take action, think, and prepare. It is a positive trait... If you control its energy - great things can be had.
Thanks for your feedback on my journal. I'm going to take some time to read yours start to finish, but just wanted to let you know I appreciate it.
This post above is solid. I can definitely relate. I need to process that no one is coming and that it's on me to fix my situation. I think the opposite mindset is what led me to stay in my current city way longer than I should have. I think I found refuge in dating. It was easy to hide from a tenuous professional life as long as I had someone I could hide with. It's strange to admit that, but I've been having several strange epiphanies since finding this forum.
Thanks for sharing!
Re: Lemur Journal!
@Hail_Diogenes
My post couldn't be more timely because our team is being audited and Monday we're presenting in front of them with our leadership. It could be our jobs on the line if we screw up.
In more news today...if the FED can pump up the markets $1.5T, so can the Lemurs. My spouse sat on $70,000 in cash...and she gave me an interest free loan of $50,000 to prop up our portfolio. This brings me up from $121k to $171k.
I used the $50,000 to sell cash covered puts on Apple, Walmart, and BRK.B at a strike price roughly 15% lower then the prices today [My other cash covered puts will likely exercise by March 27 and I'll have positions in Coca-Cola and Wells Fargo]. The premiums that I collected were thrown on INDA puts expiring in a month.
Walmart is recession proof while Apple and Berkshire Hataway are just sitting on a mountain of cash and I believe in the long-run they're prepared to meet recessions and if the recessions don't hit as hard as we think they will, we could see share buybacks from both companies.
The deal is once our portfolio reaches $250,000, I need to start payments back to my spouse. I love our contractual obligations to one another lol.
My post couldn't be more timely because our team is being audited and Monday we're presenting in front of them with our leadership. It could be our jobs on the line if we screw up.
In more news today...if the FED can pump up the markets $1.5T, so can the Lemurs. My spouse sat on $70,000 in cash...and she gave me an interest free loan of $50,000 to prop up our portfolio. This brings me up from $121k to $171k.
I used the $50,000 to sell cash covered puts on Apple, Walmart, and BRK.B at a strike price roughly 15% lower then the prices today [My other cash covered puts will likely exercise by March 27 and I'll have positions in Coca-Cola and Wells Fargo]. The premiums that I collected were thrown on INDA puts expiring in a month.
Walmart is recession proof while Apple and Berkshire Hataway are just sitting on a mountain of cash and I believe in the long-run they're prepared to meet recessions and if the recessions don't hit as hard as we think they will, we could see share buybacks from both companies.
The deal is once our portfolio reaches $250,000, I need to start payments back to my spouse. I love our contractual obligations to one another lol.
Re: Lemur Journal!
Presentation went well. I'm very articulate, prepared, and you know you do good when the auditor doesn't even have a question for you. Always glad to get over those things. I get better every time we do those. Still gotta work on 'slowing down' a bit when I present. That must be something that accompanies anxiousness.
In any case....the market. Oh my Lord. I'm sitting okay though since my spouse is bailing me out. Some of my cash-covered Puts will likely trigger this week meanwhile, the ones I had on Apple / Walmart / BRB.B...ones I didn't expect to trigger...might as well at this rate!
I'm sitting on a good profit on INDA puts. Debating on taking gains now or letting it ride. I'm leaning towards the latter....the great part about playing with just premium "house money" is that I can learn how to handle the behavioral and psychology aspects of options trading.
In any case....the market. Oh my Lord. I'm sitting okay though since my spouse is bailing me out. Some of my cash-covered Puts will likely trigger this week meanwhile, the ones I had on Apple / Walmart / BRB.B...ones I didn't expect to trigger...might as well at this rate!
I'm sitting on a good profit on INDA puts. Debating on taking gains now or letting it ride. I'm leaning towards the latter....the great part about playing with just premium "house money" is that I can learn how to handle the behavioral and psychology aspects of options trading.
Re: Lemur Journal!
I have a really bad herniated disc...or quite possibly acute scoliosis. On a lot of pain meds and muscle relaxers. Need to see a good physio pronto...maybe get an MRI? Oof....worst timing ever given the society situation. On silver lining is being able to telework indefinitely until this thing is over.
Re: Lemur Journal!
that's sad. what happened? problem based on military experience?
__
plz share ur energy&time management techniques when u were working to become some white collar worker (in times u were in military)?
way to refresh after 8h of "paid" work?
__
plz share ur energy&time management techniques when u were working to become some white collar worker (in times u were in military)?
way to refresh after 8h of "paid" work?
Re: Lemur Journal!
@Stahlmann
Old injury from about 9 years ago ago while in military. Did have a surgery to remove part of disc. Never "fully' recovered but managed well with only a flare-up of pain here and there.
As far as energy & time management techniques while in military....that was hard because I worked construction. But when working construction, I developed a mindset of efficiency. For instance, gathering all the right tools for the job so you didn't' have to drive back to the tool shed. Minimize walking back and forth to the tool boxes. Or building form templates to use over and over. It was all about reducing re-work. "Measure twice, cut once." Now as a white-collar worker, I carry this efficiency over. I try to automate all repeatable tasks as much as possible. As an example, I have SQL scripts with pre-built queries in them to run reports that I get asked regularly to produce. Time management techniques...umm...I guess I just prioritize tasks. I try to do the ones I know are going to take the longest/hardest/most brain power first. Last Friday I didn't sleep well so I spent the day knocking off hanging fruit tasks that built up in my backlog. I guess sometimes you just have to be flexible with where your energy is at. I did this in school too. On days I was feeling well - put many hours on my projects. On days I wasn't feeling well, just knocked off those easy "discussion posts" you've to make on the online forums.
Also sometimes there is no refresh button. I developed a nasty caffeine habit instead. You might find this guy interesting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s Used hard stimulants to keep himself going but also lived bare bones out of a suitcase.
Old injury from about 9 years ago ago while in military. Did have a surgery to remove part of disc. Never "fully' recovered but managed well with only a flare-up of pain here and there.
As far as energy & time management techniques while in military....that was hard because I worked construction. But when working construction, I developed a mindset of efficiency. For instance, gathering all the right tools for the job so you didn't' have to drive back to the tool shed. Minimize walking back and forth to the tool boxes. Or building form templates to use over and over. It was all about reducing re-work. "Measure twice, cut once." Now as a white-collar worker, I carry this efficiency over. I try to automate all repeatable tasks as much as possible. As an example, I have SQL scripts with pre-built queries in them to run reports that I get asked regularly to produce. Time management techniques...umm...I guess I just prioritize tasks. I try to do the ones I know are going to take the longest/hardest/most brain power first. Last Friday I didn't sleep well so I spent the day knocking off hanging fruit tasks that built up in my backlog. I guess sometimes you just have to be flexible with where your energy is at. I did this in school too. On days I was feeling well - put many hours on my projects. On days I wasn't feeling well, just knocked off those easy "discussion posts" you've to make on the online forums.
Also sometimes there is no refresh button. I developed a nasty caffeine habit instead. You might find this guy interesting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s Used hard stimulants to keep himself going but also lived bare bones out of a suitcase.
Re: Lemur Journal!
Called it...re-herniated the same L5-S1 disc that I previously had surgery on about 8 years ago. This time...massive enough to cause a lateral shift (forces my spine to curve).GREATTT.....The first time was from too much activity ...powerlifting, running, working construction, military, etc....This time from probably too little.
Umm....This should be interesting to try to fix. I've been scouring physical therapy information....may need to find out how to heal on own and at home without a pro while COVID-19 still lingers for a while.
I guess I'm somewhat reluctant its just this disc and my other ones look healthy. Remarkable even.
Umm....This should be interesting to try to fix. I've been scouring physical therapy information....may need to find out how to heal on own and at home without a pro while COVID-19 still lingers for a while.
I guess I'm somewhat reluctant its just this disc and my other ones look healthy. Remarkable even.
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mooretrees
- Posts: 764
- Joined: Sun Jan 27, 2019 1:21 pm
Re: Lemur Journal!
I’ve recommended this book Pain Free by Pete Egoscue to many people with very different problems. I highly suggest it as first resort to reducing pain and possibly avoiding surgery. I’m not a doctor but this guy’s approach is interesting. His hip exercises helped me stop chronic pain in my knee due to over training for a 50 k.
I’ve had friends use this book to: reduce hip pain, elbow pain, knee pain and neck pain.
Usually there are plenty of used copies on thrift books or amazon. Cheap first option that could pay off for you. Good luck.
I’ve had friends use this book to: reduce hip pain, elbow pain, knee pain and neck pain.
Usually there are plenty of used copies on thrift books or amazon. Cheap first option that could pay off for you. Good luck.
Re: Lemur Journal!
April 4, 2020
Investments:
Invested - $183,852.99
Debt - $50,000
Cash Savings - $1900.00
Net - $135,752.99
So my normal breakdown above has changed a bit. My spouse loaned me $50k to invest in the market after I'd convinced her that since the S&P dropped so hard it was a once in a decade buying opportunity. The only interest is that I cover her travel tickets when she goes to visit her home country sometime next year when this virus is over. My 401(k) contribution, I reduced from 21% (maxing out) to 6% so I could have more cash to put into savings. I'm building up 6-12 months of expenses for the upcoming recession / possibly depression. I would like to think my job is more safe then others so I've that going for me. Best case scenario is I don't lose my job, my savings are built up, and then I can start allocating money back to my spouse to pay down my loan. As far as my investment strategy, I'm selling cash covered puts bi-weekly with the intention of eventually having all my capital invested in good long-term buys at lower prices. "Selling Puts" is a bullish strategy from what I've read but I'm essentially using them as a limit order. I'm also selling covered calls with the intention of not being assigned but collecting extra premium...I always choose a price-point touch, meaning, I aim to sell above my cost per share.
I own KO, WMT, MSFT, and GE. I'am writing AAPL, WFC, F. and BRK.B.
Physical Health / Diet: I spoke too soon. I am incorporating chicken back into my diet for high-quality protein. I had a good run...3 months. I figure I need the best protein to recover from my injury and work on hypertrophy (building muscles) in my posterior chain (glutes, hamstrings, lower back multifidus muscles, obliques, core). The worst of my pain is over so now starting to recover. Need to build. LEMUR WILL REBUILD!
Mental Health: Other then this injury, doing well. I'm obsessed with learning about options trading and the psychology of gambling lately. I'm reading this book that Jacob recommended to me in another thread: More than you know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places by Michael J. Mauboussin.
Job: I keep putting off firm work. Still very focused on delivering quality work to my client and training some junior analyst. Telework is awesome!!!
Gardening: Its time....planted cucumber, carrot, and some squash. I have a few more plots to cover with seeds
. The groundhogs are back...fatter then ever too.
Family: My younger brother lost his job. He makes the same amount through unemployment. Its the perfect time for him to gain a skill...maybe learn how to drive a car. He'd rather play video games and eat pizza and feed the diabetes monster though.
Investments:
Invested - $183,852.99
Debt - $50,000
Cash Savings - $1900.00
Net - $135,752.99
So my normal breakdown above has changed a bit. My spouse loaned me $50k to invest in the market after I'd convinced her that since the S&P dropped so hard it was a once in a decade buying opportunity. The only interest is that I cover her travel tickets when she goes to visit her home country sometime next year when this virus is over. My 401(k) contribution, I reduced from 21% (maxing out) to 6% so I could have more cash to put into savings. I'm building up 6-12 months of expenses for the upcoming recession / possibly depression. I would like to think my job is more safe then others so I've that going for me. Best case scenario is I don't lose my job, my savings are built up, and then I can start allocating money back to my spouse to pay down my loan. As far as my investment strategy, I'm selling cash covered puts bi-weekly with the intention of eventually having all my capital invested in good long-term buys at lower prices. "Selling Puts" is a bullish strategy from what I've read but I'm essentially using them as a limit order. I'm also selling covered calls with the intention of not being assigned but collecting extra premium...I always choose a price-point touch, meaning, I aim to sell above my cost per share.
I own KO, WMT, MSFT, and GE. I'am writing AAPL, WFC, F. and BRK.B.
Physical Health / Diet: I spoke too soon. I am incorporating chicken back into my diet for high-quality protein. I had a good run...3 months. I figure I need the best protein to recover from my injury and work on hypertrophy (building muscles) in my posterior chain (glutes, hamstrings, lower back multifidus muscles, obliques, core). The worst of my pain is over so now starting to recover. Need to build. LEMUR WILL REBUILD!
Mental Health: Other then this injury, doing well. I'm obsessed with learning about options trading and the psychology of gambling lately. I'm reading this book that Jacob recommended to me in another thread: More than you know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places by Michael J. Mauboussin.
Job: I keep putting off firm work. Still very focused on delivering quality work to my client and training some junior analyst. Telework is awesome!!!
Gardening: Its time....planted cucumber, carrot, and some squash. I have a few more plots to cover with seeds
. The groundhogs are back...fatter then ever too. Family: My younger brother lost his job. He makes the same amount through unemployment. Its the perfect time for him to gain a skill...maybe learn how to drive a car. He'd rather play video games and eat pizza and feed the diabetes monster though.
Re: Lemur Journal!
This book, Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places by Michael J. Mauboussin, has a resonating piece on decision-making psychology. I really liked this bit about how we should be critiquing our decision-making process and not so much the outcome. This is relieving to me in a way....
Good Process + Good Outcome = Deserved Success
Good Process + Bad Outcome = Bad Luck
Bad Process + Good Outcome = Dumb Luck
Bad Process + Bad Outcome = Poetic Justice
If focus is placed on the former (process), over a longer period of time, we become better decision makers. If too much emphasis is placed on short-term outcome, we could potentially change a good process that has no need of changing. How can one judge their entire stock picking methodology off one bad pick? Now if methodology causes 10 bad picks...well that is a different story.
This lesson has given me thoughts beyond investing. I've applied these principles at work. Specifically presenting my work, presenting products, but also when reacting to others ideas / quality of work. I'm starting to focus more on what process lead said co-worker to whatever decision.
Good Process + Good Outcome = Deserved Success
Good Process + Bad Outcome = Bad Luck
Bad Process + Good Outcome = Dumb Luck
Bad Process + Bad Outcome = Poetic Justice
If focus is placed on the former (process), over a longer period of time, we become better decision makers. If too much emphasis is placed on short-term outcome, we could potentially change a good process that has no need of changing. How can one judge their entire stock picking methodology off one bad pick? Now if methodology causes 10 bad picks...well that is a different story.
This lesson has given me thoughts beyond investing. I've applied these principles at work. Specifically presenting my work, presenting products, but also when reacting to others ideas / quality of work. I'm starting to focus more on what process lead said co-worker to whatever decision.
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jacob
- Site Admin
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
- Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 77
- Contact:
Re: Lemur Journal!
More along similar lines in https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Bets-Ma ... 0735216355
Re: Lemur Journal!
Thanks @Jacob will take a look.
Also on to do list: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Also on to do list: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Re: Lemur Journal!
I really enjoyed Black Swan and it's on my mental re-read list. Not only interesting, but the author's sometimes blunt disdain for mainstream academia was somewhat humorous, or at least entertaining.
Re: Lemur Journal!
Worked extra over this weekend because it was imperative to meet certain client deadlines. Of course, in my salaried consultant position, I'm not paid over-time. Additionally, because of budget constraint, we were told not to charge hours to the client. Of course, they're appreciative of our hard work...in the consulting world they call this 'eating hours' and we always get the speech about how we shouldn't do this (for PR purposes), but EVERYONE does it...eventually. I am now one too. I went 4 years without "eating time" and I used to log my hours and when I was told why I did that I'd say because I worked..therefore I charged the government. Why I don't fight this now? Meh...maybe these days I'm interested in less conflict, don't have the energy to fight systems (or 'fight the power' ) anymore. Its one of those weird things. What the client does know...and probably suspects...is that we (well definitely me) always make up for this by doing the absolute bare minimum come Monday/Tuesday; evident by the lack of emails and communications that day.
A fair trade I guess.
A fair trade I guess.
Re: Lemur Journal!
Paradoxically, sometimes I've a come down effect from a recent tough bout at work. Like I am coming down from caffeine and I'm slightly depressed that there isn't a rush of work to give me some flow. I think my job just works like Stockholm Syndrome sometimes though lol.
Re: Lemur Journal!
Applauding the designer of this dryer (I don't own it though my landlord does):
https://roperappliances.com/product/red4516fw/
Why? Because did my annual cleaning and its super lightweight (easy to move) and all the bolts in the back are the same size (6.5mm). The design on this dryer is so simple by looking at the back, I feel like I could take the whole thing apart and know how to put back together. The backend pipes are also thick and not easy to clog.
I think used ones can get picked up for less than $200.
https://roperappliances.com/product/red4516fw/
Why? Because did my annual cleaning and its super lightweight (easy to move) and all the bolts in the back are the same size (6.5mm). The design on this dryer is so simple by looking at the back, I feel like I could take the whole thing apart and know how to put back together. The backend pipes are also thick and not easy to clog.
I think used ones can get picked up for less than $200.