bryan's journal (bay area, van dwelling, bitcoin, trusted computing, strategist, tightwad, and more)

[wolf]

How do you plan your DCA re-balancing strategy? It is "Dollar Cost Averaging", isn't it? Do you have a target AA and compare it to your StatusQuo in order to make corresponding steps toward it?
I have also some commodities in my Portfolio and I want to invest in them more. Do you also think that commodities are overvalued, because you write "everything bubble".?

[bryan]

@wolf, probably just a set amount once a week for 1-3 years. As far as AA, I haven't picked a post-FIRE portfolio yet. As far as commodities go, I have been tilted industrial metals for the last two years (apparently that was the right call). I can't predict what oil prices will do, but I would certainly buy some next time there is any doom and gloom crash (since oil can be used as an industrial material rather than fuel). Part of my US equities are actually a sort of commodity play as well (the tilt).

[SavingWithBabies]

@bryan Do you have any thoughts on ICOs and companies launching via ICOs? A friend of mine has an interesting project in that space and is looking to build up a team (thus talking to me). I already posted on the Bitcoin thread that I was late to the party so I didn't join. ICOs seem even odder but curious if you have a take on it. Wasn't sure if this warranted a whole thread or better as an exchange on your journal. If you'd rather I go post a thread, let me know.

The story of the ICO of course sounds wonderful. Take a bit of a pay cut, work as contractor, take a bit of risk but with big ICO wallet as the payoff. If successful, has monetary value right after launch instead of the stock which may not every be publicly tradable. But I'm sensing this is too good a story. I mean, obviously there is risk it won't launch. But what else is at risk? I don't know the unknowns in ICOs.

[bryan]

Mostly I would just say it's probably a better way to raise money than typical options, so long as you know what you are getting into. As an investor, I would default to "no way in hell", at this time. I would have to know the ICO very well to take a stake, faint possibility you might successfully speculate on a few (e.g. Bram Cohen will be launching Chia, something that looks not great to me but due to his past it might inspire later speculation, so maybe good to get an early stake). Overall I'm a fan of ICOs, even if most of them so far are worthless and I have never participated in one.