Journal From A Dane

Where are you and where are you going?
herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

June:

Earned income 1628
Sale of items 38
Insurance 30
Entertainment 7
Reward 8

Total income 1711

Rent 774
Union + unemployment insurance 90
Groceries 198
Phone 7
Transporation 57
Healthcare 119
Entertainment 20
Banking fees 37
Software 6
Electronics 198

Total expenses 1506

Savings 205

Savings rate 12%

Savings were pretty low due to having a low income in June and having somewhat higher expenses than usual (although as always actual savings are higher as I do not count those that go directly into my retirement account through my "arbejdsmarkedspension").

I bought a pricey pair of headphones (Bose QC25) with active noise-cancellation because I was getting so frustrated at work being unable to concentrate and the headphones provided there were pretty crap. This obviously shouldn't be necessary, but it saved some of my sanity, lowered frustration somewhat, improved my productivity, and I can hopefully use them for years.

Health has been improving from the beginning of July as many coworkers are going away on holidays and I'm now working in a different physical environment (although at the same job). I definitely prefer working in a quiet environment without constant interruptions.

My income for July will be much better, so I'm not worried about a month with low savings. Net worth is steadily increasing as well and crossed another milestone at the beginning of July, so I'm fairly pleased with that.

herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

July:

Earned income 3910
Sale of items 52
Insurance 93
Entertainment 13

Total income 4068

Rent 762
Union + unemployment insurance 89
Groceries 230
Phone 7
Transporation 56
Healthcare 51
Entertainment 36
Software 7

Total expenses 1238

Savings 2830

Savings rate 69%

July was a great month in terms of savings. Expenses were on the low side and income was above average. August will probably see a bit lower than average income.

I've been a bit slow in getting the report out for July as I've lacked motivation to continue tracking my income and expenses in a reasonably detailed way. I just don't know if I gain much from it anymore (although the savings rate was actually higher than expected for July, so at least there is some insight gained this time). I'll probably keep tracking for the rest of 2019 and then decide if I want to continue.

herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

August:

Earned income 3966
Sale of items 66
Entertainment 11

Total income 4043

Rent 759
Utilities 104
Union + unemployment insurance 88
Groceries 198
Phone 7
Transporation 55
Entertainment 27
Software 7
Misc 18
Furniture 59

Total expenses 1322

Savings 2721

Savings rate 67%

Another excellent month with higher income than expected.

The furniture is a designer couch that I bought back in July from an estate of a deceased person. The sellers were the deceased's children and I don't think they had any real idea what it was worth. These couches sell for 3k USD as new. Obviously a used couch won't fetch that much, but it's easily worth several times what I paid for it. Kind of makes you think about going into flipping.

That said, I bought the couch for my own place as I'm familiar with it and enjoy using it quite a lot.

Also looking for a new job. When I started applying I very quickly got a reply about a position that sounds interesting, so hopefully I can pursue that. As I get more experience and because unemployment is low, I really notice how the job market has heated up compared to, say, a handful of years ago.

Forskaren
Posts: 189
Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:04 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by Forskaren »

Nice progress.

There is options to detailed tracking. I am taking a break from detailed tracking this year, but may restart next year. Even without detailed tracking you can get an estimate of the savings rate by comparing earned income to money going into investment accounts.

herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

Just taking the deposits to savings/investments as a fraction of income might not be a bad way to go. Perhaps I'll trim down to doing that starting next year. It obviously won't be fully accurate, but it should provide a reasonable approximation.

herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

September:

Earned income 1828
Gift card 45
Entertainment 456
Refunds 64

Total income 2393

Rent 766
Union + unemployment insurance 89
Groceries 230
Utilities 18
Phone 7
Transporation 57
Healthcare 51
Entertainment 19
Banking fees 4
Software 7
Electronics 7
Other 4

Total expenses 1259

Savings 1134

Savings rate 47%

Finally got around to tallying up September. Income was below average, but so were expenses. Overall a pretty standard savings rate for me.

I interviewed at a potential new employer last month and they were extremely interested, but I saw many red flags during the interview process so I decided to pass it up (almost non-existent developer team, no project management etc.). Still actively looking for something new though.

herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

October:

Earned income 3338
Insurance 30

Total income 3368

Rent 761
Union + unemployment insurance 88
Clothes 122
Groceries 250
Phone 7
Transporation 56
Healthcare 51
Entertainment 12
Software 7
Other 14

Total expenses 1364

Savings 2004

Savings rate 59%

Pretty good savings rate for October that I'm happy with. However, I'm starting to get further and further behind on the reporting. I think I'll do detailed reporting for November and December and then not track very detailed for 2020.

Kind of getting ahead of myself as this is related to November, but I started new work a couple of weeks ago. So far it's been a bit rocky as I still struggle with some mental health issues, but it seems like a pretty relaxed place to be. No expectations of working long hours and very flexible work hours (although that's something that I don't value quite as highly as many probably would). Down the line, there's also lots of opportunity for working from home. My role is less technical than in previous jobs where I've been very code centric, so we will see how it works out.

Also in relation to November, I got into matched betting and milking casino offers. It's been fairly profitable but I also took on a high risk offer (without realizing it was high risk) and lost DKK 1000 (about USD ~150). I made up for it by churning other offers, though. Seems like it isn't as lucrative as in the UK where there are tons of bookmakers that you can take advantage of. It appears as if after the sign-up bonuses are gone, there isn't that much volume left up for grabs. My reporting for November will reflect this new activity as I will need to keep some float at various bookmakers to match bets.

just
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:16 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by just »

Congratulations on the new job.

I did matched betting, too, and came to the same conclusion, that once you're out of sign up offers, there's not much more to be had except occasional free bets, but they are usually not very big (<100 DKK).

How are you doing milking casino offers? I didn't think you could guarantee a profit, because you have to play the money "through" so many times. I think I recall seeing something like 30 times on the roulette.

herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

Thanks!

In terms of casinos, milking is probably stretching it. I just take the occasional freespins. There's a few casinos like Betway that only require you to wager 10x though, but I tend to pass up even those offers.

High wagering requirements is exactly how I got burned. I made a calculation that assumed a smooth distribution of outcomes and completely failed to take variance into account :oops:

herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

Happy New Year!

Thought I would post a brief update in this journal, as it's been over a year.

I'm still solidly on the path to FI. In fact, 2020 ended up on reasonably positive notes despite a global pandemic raging most of the year. I'm doing well in terms of net worth progression. In terms of work I have the same job as I did by the end of 2019. Overall it's been the least stressful job that I've had and in tandem I've decided to make part time work permanent as I find that it really improves my quality of life.

As those of you reading may have guessed, I've stopped doing detailed tracking. I don't know if I will resume monthly updates, because I lost motivation to do them. I'll consider doing a quarterly update.

herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

Some thoughts about my portfolio and the path to becoming fully FI.

November, December, and January have been excellent months in terms of market gains and net worth progression. I'm surprised at how quickly the value of one's net worth can increase even with good diversification.

In "frie midler", I've been adding to my individual portfolio of classic Benjamin Graham / early Warren Buffett cigar butt stocks since mid 2016 and they now make up nearly 1/3 of my entire net worth. They underperformed the broad market indices for a long time, but over the abovementioned three months have provided a return of about 28%. Since inception in spring of 2016, they've just slightly edged out the S&P 500 in terms of money-weighted returns, although that outperformance only arrived recently.

I often wonder if it would be better to gradually liquidate all of those individual stocks and move into full index funds (it would certainly be a lot easier, no doubt). I roughly have another 1/3 in passive low cost mutual funds and ETF's and the remaining 1/3 in cash.

Giving up all of those bargain shares would feel depressing, though, as I would give up the chance to earn abnormal market-beating returns by taking advantage of tiny, dirt cheap, illiquid stocks that money managers can't really touch.

Perhaps I'm falling into a behavioral trap of looking at this last decade's returns and how well large cap growth has performed as an asset class in the US.

thedollar
Posts: 258
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by thedollar »

Great to hear that you are on track, Herp.

I wonder what type of investments you have in terms of the stocks you refer to as cigar butt stocks. I also looked at a similar strategy, but I was never really able to identify any. I did see some danish very small cap stock being undervalued some years back but decided against buying due to the risk. I regret that now as it would have turned out great!

herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

Thanks, thedollar!

I am referring to stocks that trade at a sizable discount to a conservative estimate of liquidation value (below working capital). Often I find these stocks to be nano and micro cap having market caps below $100 million.

I only buy if the business has a healthy balance sheet, low debt, is not diluting its share count substantially and so on.

These businesses are usually mediocre at best, with razor thin margins or even losing money. But statistically they are so cheap that often even small turnarounds can send the stock price soaring.

For the past five years that I've been looking for them, I've found the vast amount in Japan. Other markets have been Singapore, the US, and with a few from Europe.

herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

Well, it's been over a year since I last posted in my journal, but in terms of net worth I am progressing very nicely. I just crossed the 50% mark towards my FI goal that I set some years ago. Although that's not adjusted for inflation since then, so I probably still have a bit more to go before getting halfway there when factoring in inflation.

I've had the same job for a few years now, and lately I've been experiencing a lot of stress as I keep taking on a lot of technical responsibility. On the one hand, the job is reasonably laid back without much in the way of deadlines, but on the other hand I lack technical coworkers to really discuss and spar with. I'm part of a small team where I'm the only employee with a relevant educational background. The job has many benefits though - extensive WFH scheme, flexible hours, and nobody really bats an eye if you leave early every now and then.

In terms of investing, I've stuck with my plan through thick and thin for the last six years, but I am now starting to shift a bit and plan to increase the number of individual stocks that I hold. I'm not changing my allocation to stocks in percentage terms, though. My motivation to shift more towards individual stocks comes from a wish to save management fees and reduce large capital distributions from danish mutual funds, which can be very tax inefficient.

herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

herp wrote:
Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:41 pm
Some thoughts about my portfolio and the path to becoming fully FI.

November, December, and January have been excellent months in terms of market gains and net worth progression. I'm surprised at how quickly the value of one's net worth can increase even with good diversification.

In "frie midler", I've been adding to my individual portfolio of classic Benjamin Graham / early Warren Buffett cigar butt stocks since mid 2016 and they now make up nearly 1/3 of my entire net worth. They underperformed the broad market indices for a long time, but over the abovementioned three months have provided a return of about 28%. Since inception in spring of 2016, they've just slightly edged out the S&P 500 in terms of money-weighted returns, although that outperformance only arrived recently.

I often wonder if it would be better to gradually liquidate all of those individual stocks and move into full index funds (it would certainly be a lot easier, no doubt). I roughly have another 1/3 in passive low cost mutual funds and ETF's and the remaining 1/3 in cash.

Giving up all of those bargain shares would feel depressing, though, as I would give up the chance to earn abnormal market-beating returns by taking advantage of tiny, dirt cheap, illiquid stocks that money managers can't really touch.

Perhaps I'm falling into a behavioral trap of looking at this last decade's returns and how well large cap growth has performed as an asset class in the US.
Some reflections on my post from last year, specifically about the composition of equities in my overall portfolio.

Checking up on my equity holdings again here towards the end of Q2 2022, I realized that the total value of my equity index funds (including retirement accounts) is less than half of my total equity holdings. IOW, individual stocks make up over half of my total equities. FWIW, I currently hold 24 individual stocks, roughly equal-weighted. I plan to increase this number, but the question is by how much and with what composition?

As I mentioned in my post from three months ago, in regular brokerage accounts I have only been buying deep value stocks for the past six years, although I changed course earlier this year as I was starting to find the deep value plays to be too time consuming to manage. Keeping up with 20 companies and their financial reports in order to check for red flags and calculate liquidation value is more work than I'm willing to keep doing. I don't want to give up these holdings entirely, but I do want to reduce the number of stocks that I hold in this area.

So I'm now at a bit of a crossroads. While I want to mantain my percentage exposure to equities as a fraction of total net worth, I don't want to shift to full equity index funds within that allocation, as potentially large capital distributions combined with expense ratios and dividend tax leakage make them a bit expensive for us danish investors. An estimate that I've seen is that expense ratio + dividend tax leakage really means an effective ER of about 0.80% and when you add the tax drag of "minimumsudlodning", well, it gets a bit worse.

However, I still value the massive diversification benefits of index funds, so I don't want to give them up entirely. Thus I have a plan to split my equity holdings 50/50 between index funds and individual stocks.

My main motivation for wanting to hold individual stocks is that a) there's zero ER b) there's no tax drag outside of dividend tax.

Unfortunately I don't have enough space in tax-advantaged retirement accounts, otherwise it would be ideal to hold ETF's here to make up the 50%. Still, retirement accounts can currently hold a bit over 20% of my total equities, so that leaves the remaining 80% to be held in normal brokerage accounts.

Some numbers should make this whole ordeal easier to understand:

60/40 allocation in brokerage accounts, 75/25 in retirement accounts.

In retirement accounts the full 75% equities are in iShares equity ETF's.

In normal brokerage accounts, equites are split as such:

60% in deep value stocks
8% in somewhat randomly chosen danish large caps (these are the holdings that I started building earlier this year)
26% in danish investment funds, tracking MSCI World + EM.
6% in iShares ETF's in a special "Aktiesparekonto", which is a tax advantaged account that has a low contribution limit.

Basically, I want to reduce the 60% of deep value stocks and shift them towards danish mutual funds + randomly chosen stocks. The question is how to slice up the allocation?

Currently I'm leaning towards a 50/25/25 split - 50% index funds, 25% semi-randomly chosen stocks and 25% deep value stocks. I'm not sure if that's still too much deep value, as I want to reduce the amount of time that I spend on managing these.

Sorry, this post got more long-winded than I anticipated!

herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

Ironically, I had two positions among my bargain shares appreciate a huge deal in just the past few weeks. YTD the cigar butt stocks have creamed the market. I liquidated one and am planning to liquidate another.

While these recent massive gains made me reconsider if dialing down exposure to cigar butt stocks was a good idea, I reminded myself that it's important to not confuse strategy with outcome. I made a decision earlier this year to become a more passive investor, and I'm sticking with that plan.

With the two positions netting a very nice short term return, I crossed yet another net worth milestone, which certainly feels satisfying. Even when adjusting for inflation, my net worth is higher now than a year ago.

herp
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Journal From A Dane

Post by herp »

Just a brief update from me. Still doing very well financially and proceeding to increase my net worth. Adjusted for inflation, I am now beyond 50% towards my original FI goal, but I actually don't know if I want to fully retire when I hit my goal. There's some comfort in at least somewhat conforming to societal standards and working a part time job. Yet I can't say that I love all of the obligations that follow being a wage slave. I've also considered if freelancing could be an option down the road, but for now I don't plan to pursue that path.

So, there's been some shifting in my allocation to equities in "frie midler".

42% in deep value stocks.
32% in somewhat randomly chosen danish/US mid/large caps (emphasis on no/low dividend to minimize taxes).
21% in danish investment funds, tracking MSCI World + EM.
5% in iShares ETF's in a special "Aktiesparekonto", which is a tax advantaged account that has a low contribution limit.

As you can see, the weight of deep value stocks has been reduced and the weight of random individual mid/large caps has been increased. This has both been the result of selling some deep value stocks when they hit a conservative estimate of liquidation value and shifting those funds towards the other portfolio of individual stocks. The rest has come from savings from my salary.

I haven't bought any shares of danish investment funds for "frie midler" in over 7 years, but I think we're getting to a point where it would be wise to increase the allocation for the benefit of diversification.

If I include my retirement savings, the weight towards iShares ETF's + danish investment funds increases significantly to over 40% of total equity holdings. Still, I think the plan for the coming year is to increase that number to 50%.

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